Synthese

, Volume 139, Issue 3, pp 405–420

Beauty and the Bets

  • Christopher Hitchcock
Article

Abstract

In the Sleeping Beauty problem, Beauty is uncertain whether the outcome of a certain coin toss was heads or tails. One argument suggests that her degree of belief in heads should be 1/3, while a second suggests that it should be 1/2. Prima facie, the argument for 1/2 appears to be stronger. I offer a diachronic Dutch Book argument in favor of 1/3. Even for those who are not routinely persuaded by diachronic Dutch Book arguments, this one has some important morals.

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Christopher Hitchcock
    • 1
  1. 1.Division of Humanities and Social Sciences 101-40California Institute of TechnologyPasadenaUSA

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