Transportation

, Volume 31, Issue 2, pp 125–151 | Cite as

Modelling passenger demand for parkway rail stations

  • W. F. Lythgoe
  • M. Wardman

Abstract

Interest in Parkway stations emerged in the 1980s. These act as convenient out-of-town stations for inter-urban rail journeys. There were 13 so-called Parkway stations in Great Britain in 1999 and two have subsequently been opened. This paper reports the development and application of a new Parkway forecasting model which was conducted for the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC), undertaken as part of an extensive update to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, which recommends demand forecasting frameworks and associated parameters that are widely used in the railway industry in Great Britain. The objective was to develop a model that had more desirable properties and was more straightforward to apply than the previously recommended procedure. The focus is entirely upon inter-urban journeys of over 80 km.The model forecasts the demand for Parkway stations based solely on rail ticket sales data and its properties are illustrated with two case study applications. The nature of Parkway stations forces consideration of competition, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of a station choice component leads to a somewhat improved explanatory power and a more plausible generalised cost elasticity.In addition to the methodological developments, the model has provided generally reasonable elasticities and forecasts and shown that Parkway users have different preferences to rail travellers in general. In a test based around a newly opened Parkway station, its forecasts are more accurate than the procedure it replaces.

demand forecasting elasticities parkway stations railways 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Arup and Scott WK (2002) West Midlands to North West Conurbation Multi Modal Study: Final Report. Prepared for the Government Offices for the West Midlands and for the North West.Google Scholar
  2. Association of Train Operating Companies (1997) Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, Version 3. London.Google Scholar
  3. Association of Train Operating Companies (2002) Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, Version 4. London.Google Scholar
  4. Atkins SDG, Ecotec L-D and MDS Transmodal (2002) North-South Movements on the M1 Corridor in the East Midlands. Prepared for the Government Office for the East Midlands, Nottingham.Google Scholar
  5. Babtie (1993) Suffolk Rail Study. Prepared for Suffolk County Council.Google Scholar
  6. Batley R, Fowkes A, Watling D, Whelan GA, Daly A & Hato E (2001) Models for Analysing Route Choice. Paper Presented at Universities Transport Studies Group Conference, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
  7. Hague Consulting Group (1995) Demand Forecasting for Inter-Urban Traffic on Channel Tunnel Rail Link. Prepared for Union Railways, British Railways BoardGoogle Scholar
  8. Halcrow F (1998) Chiltern Railway M40 Park and Ride Study. Prepared for Chiltern Railways, London.Google Scholar
  9. Leventhal B, Moy C & Griffin J (1993) An Introductory Guide to the 1991 Census. Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire: NTC Publications.Google Scholar
  10. Lythgoe WF (2001) Estimating the Increase in Demand for Trans-Pennine Passenger Services using a Proposed Guide Bridge Parkway Station. Prepared for Booz Allen Hamilton.Google Scholar
  11. Lythgoe WF & Wardman M (2002a) Estimating Passenger Demand for Parkway Stations. Paper Presented at European Transport Conference, PTRC, London.Google Scholar
  12. Lythgoe WF & Wardman M (2002b) Demand for rail travel to and from airports. Transportation 29(2): 125-143.Google Scholar
  13. MVA Consultancy, Environment Research Management, David Simmonds Consultancy, GVA Grimley, Sinclair Knight Merz, Bullen Consultants (2001) South and West Yorkshire Multi-Modal Study. Working Paper 7.3a: Public Transport Interventions. Prepared for Government Office for Yorkshire and Humberside.Google Scholar
  14. Oscar F (1995) Railtrack East Coast Main Line Market Research: Working Paper 3 — Demand Model Calibration. Prepared for Railtrack East Coast Main Line.Google Scholar
  15. Rail Operational Research (1995) Analysis of Railheading and Station Switching. Report MPP019/02. Prepared for Passenger Demand Forecasting Subscription Service, London.Google Scholar
  16. Railtrack (2000) Network Management Statement. London.Google Scholar
  17. SAS Institute Inc (1999) SAS System Version 8. Cary, North Carolina, USA.Google Scholar
  18. Steer DG (1984) BR (Western Region) Parkway/Access Model. Prepared for Western Region, British Railways Board.Google Scholar
  19. Steer DG (1985a) Iver Parkway-Heathrow Market Analysis. Prepared for British Railways Board.Google Scholar
  20. Steer DG (1985b) Hinksey Parkway Study. Prepared for Western Region, British Railways Board.Google Scholar
  21. Steer DG (1985c) Study of Proposed New Station at Chelmsford (Springfield). Prepared for London and South East, British Railways Board.Google Scholar
  22. Steer DG (1986) Study of Proposed New Station at Brighton (Patcham). Prepared for London and South East, British Railways Board.Google Scholar
  23. Steer DG (1997a) Warwick Parkway Station Study. Prepared for Warwickshire County Council and Chiltern Railways.Google Scholar
  24. Steer DG (1997b) Working Paper on Stated Preference Analysis. Prepared for Eurostar UK Ltd, London.Google Scholar
  25. Strategic Rail Authority (2002) The Strategic Plan. London.Google Scholar
  26. Transmark (1988) West Yorkshire Parkway. Prepared for InterCity Eastern Region, British Railways Board.Google Scholar
  27. Wardman M (1997) Inter-urban rail demand elasticities and competition in Great Britain: evidence from direct demand models. Transportation Research E 33: 15-28.Google Scholar
  28. Wardman M (2001) Public Transport Values of Time. Working Paper 564, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds.Google Scholar
  29. Wardman M & Tyler J (2000) Rail network accessibility and the demand for inter-urban rail travel. Transport Reviews 20(1): 3-24.Google Scholar
  30. Wardman M & Whelan GA (1999) Using Geographical Information Systems to Improve Rail Demand Models. Final Report to Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.Google Scholar
  31. Wardman M, Whelan GA & Lythgoe (2002) Enhancing Aggregate Rail Travel Demand Models Through Improved Specification of the Cross-Sectional Dimension. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds.Google Scholar
  32. Warwick District Council (2001) Planning the Future: Key Issues Report. Warwick, Warwickshire. (See www.warwickdc.gov.uk)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • W. F. Lythgoe
    • 1
  • M. Wardman
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute for Transport StudiesUniversity of LeedsUK

Personalised recommendations