Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 66, Issue 1–2, pp 109–126 | Cite as

Impact of Climate Change on the Water Cycle and Nutrient Losses in a Finnish Catchment

  • F. Bouraoui
  • B. Grizzetti
  • K. Granlund
  • S. Rekolainen
  • G. Bidoglio
Article

Abstract

Changes in climate, either long or short-term changes, can alter significantly the hydrological behavior of catchments. A statistical analysis of a thirty-four year time series of meteorological data collected in the Vantaanjoki watershed (Southern Finland) shows an increase in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model SWAT was applied to the Vantaanjoki watershed in order to assess the impact of the measured transient climate change on the hydro-biogeochemical behavior of the catchment. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for a period extending from 1965 to 1998. The model performance was evaluated comparing the measured and predicted time series for flow, suspended solids, total nitrogen and total phosphorus at the watershed outlet. The model was then run for the same period with climatic data where the observed increase in temperature and precipitation was removed using non-parametric techniques. It was shown that the observed climate change was responsible for the decrease of the snow cover and increase of winter runoff. On an annual basis, small increases were noted in nutrient losses, however, with significant seasonal differences. Globally, the observed climate change was responsible for an increased contribution of diffuse nutrient losses to the total nutrient load.

Keywords

Total Phosphorus Snow Cover Suspended Solid Hydrological Model Nutrient Load 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: 2001, 'Effects of Simulated Climate Change on the Hydrology of Major River Basins', J. Geophys. Res. 106(D4), 3335-3348.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Arnell, W.: 1999, 'The Effect of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in Europe: A Continental Perspective', Global Environ. Change 9, 5-23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Arnold, J. G., Williams, J. R., and Srinivasan, R.: 1998, SWAT98.1 Manual, USDA, Agricultural Research Service and Blackland Research Center, Texas A&M University, U.S.A.Google Scholar
  4. Beniston, M. and Tol, R. S. J.: 1998, 'Europe', in Watson, R. T., Zinoywera, M. C., Moss, R. H., and Dokken, D. J. (eds.), The Regional Impact of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerabil-ity, Special Report of IPCC Working Group II, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 149-185.Google Scholar
  5. Cleveland, W. S.: 1979, 'Robust Locally Weighted Regression and Smoothing Scatterplots', J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 74, 829-836.Google Scholar
  6. Cleveland, W. S. and McGill, R.: 1984, 'The Many Faces of a Scatterplot', J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 79, 807-822.Google Scholar
  7. Francos, A., Elorza, F. J., Bouraoui, F., Bidoglio, G., and Galbiati, L.: 2003, 'Sensitivity Analy-sis of Distributed Environmental Simulation Models: Understanding the Model Behaviour in Hydrological Studies at the Catchment Scale', Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe. 79, 205-218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Gilbert, O. R.: 1987, Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring,VanNostrand Reinhold Company Inc., New York, N.Y., p. 320.Google Scholar
  9. Gleick, P. H.: 1999, 'Studies from the Water Sector of the National Assessment', J. Amer. Water. Resour. Assoc. 35, 1429-1442.Google Scholar
  10. Hirsh, R. M., Alexander, R. B., and Smith, R. A.: 1991, 'Selection of Methods for the Detection and Estimation of Trends in Water Quality', Water Resour. Res. 27, 803-813.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Hirsh, R. M., Slack, J. R., and Smith., R. A.: 1982, 'Techniques of Trend Analysis for Monthly Water Quality Data', Water Resour. Res. 18, 107-121.Google Scholar
  12. IPCC: 2001, 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability', in IPCC Third Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of WGII, p. 17.Google Scholar
  13. Jones, P. D., New, M., Parker, D. E., Martin, S., and Rigor, I. G.: 1999, 'Surface Air Temperature and its Changes over the Past 150 years', Rev. Geophys. 37, 173-199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Kallio, K., Rekolainen, S., Ekholm, P., Granlund, K., Laine, Y., Johnsson, H., and Hoffman, M.: 1997, 'Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Nutrient Losses in Finland', Boreal Environ. Res. 2, 33-52.Google Scholar
  15. Lepistö, A.: 1995, 'Increased Leaching of Nitrate in Two Forested Catchments in Finland over a Period of 25 years', J. Hydrol. 171, 103-123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Murdoch, P. S., Baron, J. S., and Miller, T. L.: 2000, 'Potential Effects of Climate Change on Surface-Water Quality in North America', J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc. 36, 347-366.Google Scholar
  17. Priestley, C. H. B. and Taylor, R. J.: 1972, 'On the Assessment of Surface Heat Flux and Evaporation Using Large Scale Parameters', Mon. Wea. Rev. 100, 81-92.Google Scholar
  18. Räike, A., Pietiläinen, O.-P., Rekolainen, S., Kauppila, P., Pitkänen, H., Niemi, J., Raateland, A., and Vuorenmaa, J.: 2003, 'Trends of Phosphorus, Nitrogen and Chlorophyll a Concentrations in Finnish Rivers and Lakes in 1975-2000', Sci. Total Environ. 310, 47-59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Sen, P. K.: 1968, 'Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau', J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 63, 1379-1389.Google Scholar
  20. Tuomenvirta, H., Drebs, A., Førland, E., Tveito, O. E., Alexandersson, H., Vaarby Laursen, E., and Jónsson, T.: 2001, Nordklim Data Set 1.0 Description and Illustrations, DNMI Report No. 08/01, p. 26.Google Scholar
  21. Vehviläinen, B. and Huttunen, M.: 1997, 'Climate Change and Water Resources in Finland', Boreal Environ. Res. 2, 3-18.Google Scholar
  22. Vuorenmaa, J., Rekolainen, S., Lepistö, Kenttämies, K., and Kauppila. P.: 2002, 'Losses of Nitrogen and Phosphorus from Agricultural and Forested Areas in Finland during the 1980s and 1990s', Environ. Monitor. Assess. 76(2), 213-248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • F. Bouraoui
    • 1
  • B. Grizzetti
    • 1
  • K. Granlund
    • 2
  • S. Rekolainen
    • 2
  • G. Bidoglio
    • 1
  1. 1.Joint Research Centre of the European CommissionInstitute for Environment and Sustainability, Soil & Waste UnitItaly
  2. 2.Finnish Environment InstituteHelsinkiFinland

Personalised recommendations