Climatic Change

, Volume 63, Issue 1–2, pp 223–243 | Cite as

Russia at GHG Market

  • Alexander Golub
  • Elena Strukova

Abstract

In the first Kyoto commitment period Russia could be the major supplier for the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions market. Potential Russian supply depends on the ability of Russia to keep GHG emissions lower than the Kyoto target. In the literature there is no common understanding of the total trading potential of Russia at the international carbon market. In this paper we focus on CO2 emission, which constituted nearly 80%of Russian GHG emission. We compare different projections of Russian CO2emission and analyze the most important factors, which predetermine the CO2emission growth. In a transition economy these factors are: Gross Domestic Product(GDP) dynamic, changes of GDP structure, innovation activity, transformation of export-import flows and response to the market signals. The input-output macroeconomic model with the two different input-output tables representing old and new production technologies has been applied for the analysis to simulate technological innovations and structural changes in the Russian economy during transition period. The Russian supply at the international GHG market without forest sector may be up to 3 billion metric ton of CO2 equivalent. Earlier actions to reduce CO2 emission are critical to insure theRussiansupply at the international carbon market. With regard to the current status of the Russian capital market, the forward trading with OECD countries is only the possibility to raise initial investments to roll no-regret and low-cost GHG reduction. This paper discusses uncertainties of RussianCO2emission dynamics and analyzes the different incentives to lower the emission pathway.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Alfsen, K. H.: 1997, 'Possible Criteria for Differentiated Commitments', Paper presented at Seminar on Climate Change Negotiation, Nordic Council of Ministries, Oslo 22-23 May, 1997, Oslo, Norway.Google Scholar
  2. Bohm, P.: 1997, Nordic Tradable Quota Experiment, Stockholm University, Sweden.Google Scholar
  3. Bureau of Economic Analysis: 2000, 'Survey on Economic Policy in Russia from 1999', TEIS.Google Scholar
  4. Dudek, D. J., Golub, A., and Strukova, E.: 2002, 'Ancillary Benefits of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Transitional Economies', Working Paper, Environmental Defense, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  5. Dudek, D. J. and Wiener, J. B.: 1996, 'Joint Implementation, Transaction Costs, and Climate Change', OECD (OECD/GD(96)173), Paris, France.Google Scholar
  6. Dudek, D. J. et al.: 2001, 'Independent Expert Review of the Russian Joint Stock Company-United Energy System of Russia. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Methodology', Working paper, Environmental Defense and Center for Preparation and Implementation of International Projects on Technical Assistance, Moscow-Washington-New York.Google Scholar
  7. Ellerman, A., Jacoby, H., and Decaux, A.: 1998, 'The Effects on Developing Countries of the Kyoto Protocol and CO2 Emissions Trading', Joint Program on the Science and technology of Global Change, MIT.Google Scholar
  8. Emissions Budgets: Building an effective International Greenhouse Gas Control System, Environmental Defense.S.A.Google Scholar
  9. Energy policies of the Russian Federation-1995 Review: 1995, IEA/OECD, Paris, France.Google Scholar
  10. First National Communication of the Russian Federation under the UN FCCC: 1995, Interagency Commission of the Russian Federation on Climate Change Problems, Moscow, Russia.Google Scholar
  11. Golub, A., Avertchenkov, A., Berdin, V., Kokorin, A., Martunova, M., and Strukova, E.: 1999, 'Study on Russian National Strategy of GHG Emission Reduction', The World Bank, BEA, State Committee of Russian Federation on Environmental Protection, Moscow.Google Scholar
  12. Golub, A. and Gurvich, E.: 1997, 'Options for Revising the System of Pollution Charges in Russia: Results of an Aggregate Modeling Analysis', Environmental Discussion Paper No. 21, HIID, NIS-EEP Project, July.Google Scholar
  13. Golub, A. and Strukova, E.: 1994, 'Application of a Pollution Fee System in Russia', Economic Instruments for Air Pollution Control, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
  14. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Assessment: A Guidebook: 1995, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
  15. Guidance for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments: 1994, U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, U.S.A.Google Scholar
  16. Gurvich, E., Golub, A., Mukhin, A., Uzyakov, M., and Ksenofontov M.: 1997, 'Greenhouse Gaz Impacts of Russian Energy Subsidies', Reforming Energy and Transport Subsidies, OECD.Google Scholar
  17. Nagem, C. and Mastad, O.: 2002, Market Power in the Market for Greenhouse Gas Emission Permits-The Interplay with the Fossil Fuel Markets.Google Scholar
  18. IPCC: 1995, Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, U.K.Google Scholar
  19. IPCC: 1996, Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Vol. 1-3, IPCC/OECD/IEA, Cambridge University Press, U.K.Google Scholar
  20. IPCC: 1996a, Climate Change 1995, Vols. 1 and 2, Contributions of Working Groups I and II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, U.K.Google Scholar
  21. IPCC: 1997, Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases: Physical, Biological and Socio-Economic Implications, IPCC Technical Paper III, Cambridge University Press, U.K.Google Scholar
  22. Izrael, Yu. A. et. al.: 1997, Russian Country Study Climate Change Program, Final Report, Russian Federal Service on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, Moscow, Russia.Google Scholar
  23. Joint implementation: Theoretical Considerations with Perspectives from the Industrial and Land Use Sectors: 1997, ECON Centre for Economic Analysis, PPA/THA/nst.ESS.26.,March.Google Scholar
  24. Kokorin, A. O., Lelakin, A. L., Nazarov, I. M., and Filipchuk, A. N.: 1996, 'Calculation of CO2 Net Sinks/Emissions in Russian Forests and Assessment of Mitigation Options', Environ. Manage. 1(Suppl. 1), pp. S101–S110.Google Scholar
  25. Kolstad, C. and Golub, A.: 1993, 'Environmental Protection and Economic Reform in Russia', EPAT/MUCIA Policy Brief, July No. 2.Google Scholar
  26. Matsarsky, V. I.: 1997, An Overview of Information on GHG Inventories and Projections Submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat by Sept. 1, 1997. Presented as Report on AIXG Meeting Oct. 1, 1997, Paris, France, 11 pp.Google Scholar
  27. McKibbin, W., Shackleton, R., and Wilcoxen, P.: 1998, 'What to Expect from an International System of Tradable Permits for Carbon Emissions', Discussion Paper, December 9.Google Scholar
  28. Ministry of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of the Russian Federation: 1996, 'National Report on the State of Environment of the Russian Federation in 1995', Moscow, Russia (in Russian).Google Scholar
  29. Mullins, F. and Baron, R.: 1997, 'International GHG Emission Trading', Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and International Energy Agency (IEA), Working Papers 9 Prepared for Annex I Expert Group on the UN FCCC, March 1997, OECD/IEA, Paris, France.Google Scholar
  30. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): 1995, 'Energy Policies of IEA Countries, 1994 Review', OECD, Paris, France.Google Scholar
  31. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): 1995, 'OECD Environmental Data Compendium', OECD, Paris, France.Google Scholar
  32. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): 1997, 'Greenhouse Gas Impacts of Russian Energy Subsidies', Environmental Implications of Energy and Transport Subsidies 1, OECD/GD(97)154, Paris.Google Scholar
  33. Reinstein, R. A.: 1997, 'The Road to Kyoto', Reinstein and Associates International, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.Google Scholar
  34. Shafranic, Y. K, Bushuev, V. V., and Mastepanov, A. M.: 1995, 'Energy Strategy of Russia', Materials of the International Conference 'European Market of Energy Resources: New Stimulus and Priorities of Stable Development', Moscow.Google Scholar
  35. Second National Communication of the Russian Federation under the UN FCCC: 1999, Interagency Commission of the Russian Federation on Climate Change Problems, Moscow (in Russian).Google Scholar
  36. Second National Communications under the UN FCCC: 1998, Communications presented by Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K. and U.S.A.Google Scholar
  37. State Committee of Russian Federation for Statistics (Goscomstat): 1992, 'National Economy of the Russian Federation. 1992. Statistical Yearbook', Moscow (in Russian).Google Scholar
  38. State Committee of Russian Federation for Statistics (Goscomstat): 1994, 'Socio-Economic Situation in Russia', Moscow (in Russian).Google Scholar
  39. State Committee of Russian Federation for Statistics (Goscomstat): 1996, 'Russia in Figures', Finansy I Statistica, Moscow (in Russian).Google Scholar
  40. Synthesis Study of the National AIJ/JI/CDM Strategy Studies Program. A Review of National AIJ/JI/CDM Strategy Studies in the Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Russian Federation and Uzbekistan: 1999, The World Bank, Project Manager Jurg Klarer.Google Scholar
  41. The World Bank: 1997, 'Global Markets for Greenhouse Gas Investments', Global Climate Change Unit, May.Google Scholar
  42. UN FCCC, Documents of Conferences of the Parties, Including Kyoto Protocol and FCCC/CP/1996/12/Add.2-Second Compilation and Synthesis of First National Communications.Google Scholar
  43. UN FCCC, Documents of Subsidiary Bodies: FCCC/SBI/1997/19 and 19/Add.1-First Compilation and Synthesis of Second National Communications.Google Scholar
  44. Victor, D., Nakicenovic, N., and Victor, N.: 1998, 'The Kyoto Protocol Carbon Bubble: Implications for Russia, Ukraine and Emission Trading', IIASA, Interim Report IR-98-094/October.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alexander Golub
    • 1
  • Elena Strukova
    • 1
  1. 1.Environmental DefenseWashington D.CU.S.A.

Personalised recommendations