Advertisement

Space Science Reviews

, Volume 94, Issue 1–2, pp 363–373 | Cite as

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

  • Keith P. Shine
Article

Abstract

Our current understanding of mechanisms that are, or may be, acting to cause climate change over the past century is briefly reviewed, with an emphasis on those due to human activity. The paper discusses the general level of confidence in these estimates and areas of remaining uncertainty. The effects of increases in the so-called well-mixed greenhouse gases, and in particular carbon dioxide, appear to be the dominant mechanism. However, there are considerable uncertainties in our estimates of many other forcing mechanisms; those associated with the so-called indirect aerosol forcing (whereby changes in aerosols can impact on cloud properties) may be the most serious, as its climatic effect may be of a similar size as, but opposite sign to, that due to carbon dioxide. The possible role of volcanic eruptions as a natural climate change mechanism is also highlighted.

Keywords

Climate Change Carbon Dioxide General Level Opposite Sign Current Understanding 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Chase, T. N., Piekle, R. A., Kittel, T. G. F., Nemani, R., Running, S. W.: 1996, ‘The sensitivity of a general circulation model to changes in leaf area index’, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 7393–7408.Google Scholar
  2. Christiansen, B.: 1999, ‘Radiative forcing and climate sensitivity: the ozone experience’, Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 3011–3035.Google Scholar
  3. Forster, P. M. de F., and Shine, K. P.: 1999, ‘Stratospheric water vapour changes as a possible contributor to observed stratospheric cooling’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 3309–3312.Google Scholar
  4. Hansen, J., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R. and Sato, M.: 1992, ‘Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption’ Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 215–218.Google Scholar
  5. Hansen, J., Sato, M. and Ruedy, R.: 1997, ‘Radiative forcing and climate response’, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 6831–6864.Google Scholar
  6. Henderson-Sellers, A.: 1995, ‘Human effects on climate through the large-scale impacts of land use change’, In: A. Henderson-Sellers (Editor), Future Climates of the World: A Modelling Perspective. World Survey of Climatology Volume 16, Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 433–475.Google Scholar
  7. IPCC: 1990, Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  8. IPCC: 1992, Climate Change 1992, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  9. IPCC: 1994, Climate Change 1994, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  10. IPCC: 1995, Climate Change 1995, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  11. Larkin, A., Haigh, J. D., and Djavidnia, S.: 2000, Space Sci. Rev., this volume.Google Scholar
  12. Lean, J. L.: 2000, Space Sci. Rev., this volume.Google Scholar
  13. Ramanathan, V., Callis, L., Cess, R., Hansen, J., Isaksen, I., Kuhn, W., Lacis, A., Luther, F., Mahlman, J., Reck, R., Schlesinger, M.: 1987, ‘Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases’, Rev. Geophys. 25, 1441–1482.Google Scholar
  14. Rowntree, P. R.: 1998, ‘Global average climate forcing and temperature response since 1750’, Int. J. Climatol. 18, 355–377.Google Scholar
  15. Shine, K. P., and Forster, P. M. de F.: 1999, ‘The effect of human activity on radiative forcing of climate change: a review of recent developments’, Global and Planetary Change 20, 205–225.Google Scholar
  16. Solanki, S. K., Fligge, M.: 2000, Space Sci. Rev., this volume.Google Scholar
  17. WMO: 1999, Scientific Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: 1998: World Meteorological Organisation Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project — Report No 44, Geneva Switzerland.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • Keith P. Shine
    • 1
  1. 1.epartment of Meteorologyiversity of ReadingReadingUK

Personalised recommendations