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Space Science Reviews

, Volume 94, Issue 1–2, pp 337–344 | Cite as

Anthropogenic and natural causes of twentieth century temperature change

  • P.A. Stott
  • S.F.B. Tett
  • G.S. Jones
  • M.R. Allen
  • W.J. Ingram
  • J.F.B. Mitchell
Article

Abstract

We analyse spatio-temporal patterns of near-surface temperature change to provide an attribution of twentieth century climate change. We apply an “optimal detection” methodology to seasonal and annual data averaged over a range of spatial and temporal scales. We find that solar effects may have contributed significantly to the warming in the first half of the century although this result is dependent on the reconstruction of total solar irradiance that is used. In the latter half of the century, we find that anthropogenic increases in greenhouses gases are largely responsible for the observed warming, balanced by some cooling due to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols, with no evidence for significant solar effects.

Keywords

Temperature Change Twentieth Century Annual Data Solar Irradiance Century Climate 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • P.A. Stott
    • 1
  • S.F.B. Tett
    • 1
  • G.S. Jones
    • 1
  • M.R. Allen
    • 2
  • W.J. Ingram
    • 1
  • J.F.B. Mitchell
    • 1
  1. 1.Met Office, UK Met Office, BracknellHadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchBerksUK
  2. 2.Rutherford Appleton LaboratoryUK

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