AIDS and Behavior

, Volume 7, Issue 3, pp 273–290 | Cite as

Correlates of Sexual Risk for HIV Infection in Female Members of Heterosexual California Latino Couples: An Application of a Bernoulli Process Model

  • Sandra R. Wilson
  • Philip W. Lavori
  • Nancy L. Brown
  • Ya-Min Kao
Article

Abstract

Individual HIV risk estimates were generated from reported sexual behavior for 1,146 California Latino Couples Study participants (573 couples). These Bernoulli process model-based estimates proved strongly associated with individual sexually transmitted disease history. Mean estimated background risk from sexual contacts other than with their primary partner was substantially lower for the females than the males (1.4 vs. 7.4 per 10,000). After including their chance of infection from each other, mean net estimated risk was higher for the females than the males (9.2 vs. 8.6 per 10,000). Individual background risk was predicted by individual demographic and psychosocial characteristics (females: coefficient of concordance C = 0.84 predicting any (nonzero) risk; adjusted R2 = 36% predicting level of risk, given any risk; males: C = 0.78; R2 = 24%). Characteristics of women with higher risk primary partners were also identifiable (C = 0.65; R2 = 13%). There was no significant negative association between the male partner's background sexual risk and the aggregate infectivity of the woman from him (taking into account the total number of their condom-protected and unprotected acts of different types).

HIV risk Latino/as Bernoulli model couples females 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bell, D. C., and Trevino, R. A. (1999). Modeling HIV risk. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, 22, 280–287.Google Scholar
  2. Bradburn, N., Sudman, S., Blair, E., and Stocking, C. (1978). Question threat and response bias. Public Opinion Quarterly, 42, 221–234.Google Scholar
  3. Brookmeyer, R., and Gail, M. H. (1994). In AIDS epidemiology: A quantitative approach (pp. 19–51). Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  4. California Department of Health Services, Office of AIDS. (1998). California HIV seroprevalence annual report: 1996. Sacramento, CA: Author.Google Scholar
  5. Catania, J. A., Gibson, D. R., Chitwood, D. D., and Coates, T. J. (1990). Methodological problems in AIDS behavioral research: Influences on measurement error and participation bias in studies of sexual behavior. Psychology Bulletin, 108, 339–362.Google Scholar
  6. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (1999). HIV/AIDS surveillance report, year end edition. Atlanta, GA: Author.Google Scholar
  7. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2000). HIV/AIDS among racial/ethnic minority men who have sex with men—United States, 1989–1998. MMWR, 49, 4–11.Google Scholar
  8. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2001). HIV prevalence trends in selected populations in the United States: Results from national serosurveillance, 1993–1997. Atlanta, GA: Author.Google Scholar
  9. Dar, Q., and Sun, R. (2001). Analysis of data from California's court-ordered HIV tests of prostitutes, 1990–1998. Sacramento, CA: California Department of Health Services, Office of AIDS. Available at http://www.dhs.ca.gov/ps/ooa/Reports/update/pdf/ProstArticle.pdf. Accessed January, 2002.Google Scholar
  10. Diaz, R. (1998). Latino gay men and HIV: Culture, sexuality, and risk behavior. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  11. Diaz, R., Stall, R., Hoff, C., Daigle, D., and Coates, T. (1996). HIV risk among Latino gay men in the southwestern US. AIDS Education and Prevention, 8, 415–429.Google Scholar
  12. Díaz, R., Morales, E., Bein, E., Dilán, E., and Rodríguez, R. (1999). Predictors of sexual risk in Latino gay/bisexual men: The role of demographic, developmental, social, cognitive, and behavioral variables. Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences, 21, 480–501.Google Scholar
  13. Downs, A. M., and De Vincenzi, I. (1996). Probability of heterosexual transmission of HIV: Relationship to the number of unprotected sexual contacts. European Study Group in Heterosexual Transmission of HIV. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome and Human Retrovirology 11, 388–395.Google Scholar
  14. Ford, M. E. (1992). Motivating humans: Goals, emotions, and personal agency beliefs. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
  15. Ford, M. E., and Ford, D. (1987). Humans as self-constructing livings systems: Putting the framework to work. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.Google Scholar
  16. Garnett, G. P., and Anderson, R. M. (1995). Strategies for limiting the spread of HIV in developing countries: Conclusions based on studies of the transmission dynamics of the virus. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome and Human Retrovirology, 9, 500–513.Google Scholar
  17. Harrell, F. E. (1996). Predicting outcomes: Applied survival analysis and logistic regression. Charlottesville: University of Virginia.Google Scholar
  18. Harrell, F. E. (1999). Design: S function for biostatistical and epidemiologic modeling, testing, estimation, validation, graphics and prediction. Programs available from http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/.Google Scholar
  19. Holtgrave, D. R., Leviton, L. C., Wagstaff, D. A., and Pinkerton, S. D. (1997). Cumulative probability of HIV infection: A summary risk measure for HIV prevention intervention studies. AIDS and Behavior, 1, 169–180.Google Scholar
  20. Kaplan, E. H. (1990). Modeling HIV infectivity: Must sex acts be counted? Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, 3, 55–61.Google Scholar
  21. Marín, B. V., and Gomez, C. A. (1996). Latino culture and sex: Implications for HIV prevention. In J. Garcia and M. Zea (Eds.), Psychological interventions and research with Latino populations (pp. 73–93). Meedham Heights, MA: Allyn and Bacon.Google Scholar
  22. Marín, B. V., Gómez, C. A., and Hearst, N. (1993). Multiple heterosexual partners and condom use among Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites. Family Planning Perspectives 25, 170–174.Google Scholar
  23. Marín, B. V., Gómez, C. A., Tschann, J. M., and Gregorich, S. E. (1997). Condom use in unmarried Latino men: A test of cultural constructs. Health Psychology, 16, 458–467.Google Scholar
  24. Pinkerton, S. D., and Abramson, P. R. (1996). Occasional condom use and HIV risk reduction. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome and Human Retrovirology, 13, 456–460.Google Scholar
  25. Pinkerton, S. D., and Abramson, P. R. (1997). Effectiveness of condoms in preventing HIV transmission. Social Science and Medicine, 44, 1303–1312.Google Scholar
  26. Pinkerton, S. D., and Abramson, P. R. (1998). The Bernoulli-process model of HIV transmission: Applications and implications. In D. R. Holtgrave (Ed.), Handbook of economic analysis of HIV prevention programs (pp. 13–32) New York: Plenum.Google Scholar
  27. Pinkerton, S. D., Holtgrave, D. R., Leviton, L. C., Wagstaff, D. A., and Abramson, P. R. (1998). Model-based evaluation of HIV prevention interventions. Evaluation Review, 22, 155–174.Google Scholar
  28. Pinkerton, S. D., Abramson, P. R., and Holtgrave, D. R. (1999). What is a condom worth? AIDS and Behavior, 3, 301–312.Google Scholar
  29. Pinkerton, S. D., Abramson, P. R., Kalichman, S. C., Catz, S. L., and Johnson-Masotti, A. P. (2000a). Secondary HIV transmission rates in a mixed-gender sample. International Journal of STD & AIDS, 11, 38–44.Google Scholar
  30. Pinkerton, S. D., Holtgrave, D. R., DiFranceisco, W., Semaan, S., Coyle, S. L., and Johnson-Masotti, A. P. (2000b). Cost-threshold analyses of the National AIDS Demonstration Research HIV prevention interventions. AIDS, 14, 1257–1268.Google Scholar
  31. Sabogal, F., Faigeles, B., and Catania, J. A. (1993). Data from the National AIDS Behavioral Surveys. II. Multiple sexual partners among Hispanics in high-risk cities. Family Planning Perspectives, 25, 257–262.Google Scholar
  32. Sabogal, F., Perez-Stable, E. J., Otero-Sabogal, R., and Hiatt, R. A. (1995). Gender, ethnic, and acculturation differences in sexual behaviors: Hispanic and non-Hispanic White adults. Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences, 17, 139–159.Google Scholar
  33. San Doval, A., Duran, R., O'Donnell, L., and O'Donnell, C. (1995). Barriers to condom use in primary and nonprimary relationships among Hispanic STD clinic patients. Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences, 17, 385–397.Google Scholar
  34. Siegel, S., and Castellan, Jr., N. J. (1988). Nonparametric statistics for the behavioral sciences, 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-HiGoogle Scholar
  35. Smith, K. W., McGraw, S. A., Crawford, S. L., Costa, L. A., and McKinlay, J. B. (1993). HIV risk among Latino adolescents in two New England cities. American Journal of Public Health, 83, 1395–1399.Google Scholar
  36. Sorian, R., and Kates, J. (2000). The state of HIV/AIDS epidemic in America: The Kaiser Family Foundation Capital Hill Briefing Series on HIV/AIDS. Available at http://www.kff.org.Google Scholar
  37. Sudman, S., and Bradburn, N. (1983). Asking questions: A practical guide to questionnaire design. San Francisco: JosseyBass.Google Scholar
  38. Tanfer, K., Grady, W., Klepinger, D., and Billy, J. (1993). Condom use among US men, 1991. Family Planning Perspectives, 25, 61–66.Google Scholar
  39. Wiley, J. A., Herschkorn, S. J., and Padian, N. S. (1989). Heterogeneity in the probability of HIV transmission per sexual contact: The case of male-to-female transmission in penile–vaginal intercourse. Statistics in Medicine, 8, 93–102.Google Scholar
  40. Wilson, S. R., Brown, N. L., Mejia, C., and Lavori, P. (2002). Effects of interviewer characteristics on reported sexual behavior of California Latino couples. Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Science, 24, 38–62.Google Scholar
  41. Wortley, P., and Fleming, P. (1997). AIDS in women in the United States: Recent trends. Journal of the American Medical Association, 278, 911–916.Google Scholar
  42. Vittinghoff, E., Douglas, J., Judson, F., McKirnan, D., MacQueen, K., and Buchbinder, S. P. (1999). Per-contact risk of human immunodeficiency virus transmission between male sexual partners. American Journal of Epidemiology, 150, 306–311.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Plenum Publishing Corporation 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sandra R. Wilson
    • 1
  • Philip W. Lavori
    • 2
  • Nancy L. Brown
    • 1
  • Ya-Min Kao
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Health Services ResearchPalo Alto Medical Foundation Research InstitutePalo Alto
  2. 2.Division of BiostatisticsStanford University School of MedicineStanford

Personalised recommendations