Solar Physics

, Volume 213, Issue 1, pp 203–212 | Cite as

An Early Prediction of Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24

  • S. Duhau


A non-linear coupling function between sunspot maxima and aa minima modulations has been found as a result of a wavelet analysis of geomagnetic index aa and Wolf sunspot number yearly means since 1844. It has been demonstrated that the increase of these modulations for the past 158 years has not been steady, instead, it has occurred in less than 30 years starting around 1923. Otherwise sunspot maxima have oscillated about a constant level of 90 and 141, prior to 1923 and after 1949, respectively. The relevance of these findings regarding the forecasting of solar activity is analyzed here. It is found that if sunspot cycle maxima were still oscillating around the 141 constant value, then the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule would be violated for two consecutive even–odd sunspot pairs (22–23 and 24–25) for the first time in 1700 years. Instead, we present evidence that solar activity is in a declining episode that started about 1993. A value for maximum sunspot number in solar cycle 24 (87.5±23.5) is estimated from our results.


Solar Activity Solar Cycle Wavelet Analysis Sunspot Number Coupling Function 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Antoine, J. P.: 1999, in J. C. Van der Berg (ed.), Wavelet in Physics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 453.Google Scholar
  2. Babcock, H. W. J.: 1961, Astrophys. J. 133, 572.Google Scholar
  3. Beer, J., Tovias, S., and Weiss, N.: 1998, Solar Phys. 181, 237.Google Scholar
  4. De Mayer, F.: 1998, Solar Phys. 181, 201.Google Scholar
  5. Duhau, S. and Chen C. Y.: 2000, Anales Asociación Física Argentina 11, 321.Google Scholar
  6. Duhau, S. and Chen, C. Y.: 2002, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 6-1.Google Scholar
  7. Duhau, S., Martinez E. A., and Hurtado de Mendoza, D.: 1997, Actas 19a Reunion Cientifica de Geofisica y Geodesia, 86.Google Scholar
  8. Durney, B.: 2000, Solar Phys. 196, 421.Google Scholar
  9. Eddy, J. A.: 1976, Science 192, 1189.Google Scholar
  10. Feynman, J. and Gabriel, S.: 1990, Solar Phys. 127, 393.Google Scholar
  11. Hoyt, D. and Schatten, K. H.: 1997, The Role of the Sun in Climate Change, Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 279.Google Scholar
  12. Gleissberg W.: 1966, J. British Astron. Soc. 76, 265.Google Scholar
  13. Gnevyshev, M. N. and Ohl, A. I.: 1948, Astron. Zh. 25, 18.Google Scholar
  14. Gregg, D. P.: 1984, Solar Phys. 90, 185.Google Scholar
  15. Knobloch, E, Tobias, S. M. and Weiss, N. O.: 1998, Monthly Notices Royal Astron. Soc. 297, 1123.Google Scholar
  16. Komitov, B. and Bonev, B.: 2001, Atrophys. J. 554, L119.Google Scholar
  17. Layden, A. C., Fox, P. A., Howard, J. M., Sarajedini, A., Schatten, K. H., and Sofia, S.: 1991, Solar Phys. 132, 1.Google Scholar
  18. Legrand, J. P. and Simon, P. A.: 1991, Solar Phys. 131, 187.Google Scholar
  19. Lockwood, M., Stamper, R., and Wild, M. N.: 1999, Nature 399, 437.Google Scholar
  20. Lorenz, E.: 1993, The Essence of Chaos, University Washington Press, Washington.Google Scholar
  21. Nevanlinna, H. and Kataja, E.: 1993, Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 2703.Google Scholar
  22. Oliver, R., Ballester, J. L., and Baudin, F.: 1998, Nature 394, 552.Google Scholar
  23. Rioul, O. and Vetterli, M.: 1991, IEEE Signal Processing Magazine, 14.Google Scholar
  24. Russell, C. T.: 1975, Solar Phys. 42, 259.Google Scholar
  25. Salakhutdinova, J. I.: 1999, Solar Phys. 188, 377.Google Scholar
  26. Schatten, K. H., Scherrer, P. H., Svalgaard, L., and Wilcox, J. M.: 1978, Geophys. Res. Lett. 5, 411.Google Scholar
  27. Schove, D. J.: 1955, J. Geophys. Res. 60, 127.Google Scholar
  28. Stuiver, M. and Braziunas, T. F.: 1988, in F. R. Stephenson and A. Wolfendale (eds.) Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 Years, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht Holland, p. 245.Google Scholar
  29. Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P.: 1998, Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 79, 61.Google Scholar
  30. Vennerstroem, S.: 2000, Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 69.Google Scholar
  31. Weiss, N. O.: 1988, in F. R. Stephenson and A. Wolfendale (eds.) Secular Solar and Geomagnetic Variations in the Last 10,000 Years, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Holland, p. 69.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • S. Duhau
    • 1
  1. 1.Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y NaturalesUniversidad de Buenos AiresArgentina

Personalised recommendations