Journal of Quantitative Criminology

, Volume 14, Issue 3, pp 307–330

The Distribution of Household Property Crimes

  • Denise R. Osborn
  • Andromachi Tseloni


Previous studies have established that repeat victimizations occur more frequently than would be expected if households within a particular area were victimized randomly. This implies that characteristics of the household affect the victimization rate. Even controlling for these characteristics, we find that a Poisson model does not capture the distribution of victimizations because repeat victimizations are more concentrated than it would indicate. This leads us to adopt the negative binomial generalization of the Poisson model. Our analysis uses sociodemographic attributes of the household and community-level characteristics to predict victimizations, with the victimization data being the observed number of property crime victimizations from the 1992 British Crime Survey. The negative binomial generalization is found to be highly statistically significant and the crime concentration it implies becomes much more marked as the predicted number of victimizations increases.

property crime repeat victimization heterogeneity state dependence Poisson model negative binomial model 


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Copyright information

© Plenum Publishing Corporation 1998

Authors and Affiliations

  • Denise R. Osborn
    • 1
  • Andromachi Tseloni
    • 2
  1. 1.School of Economic StudiesUniversity of ManchesterManchesterU.K
  2. 2.Department of Criminology and Criminal JusticeUniversity of MarylandCollege Park

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