Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 57, Issue 3, pp 287–318 | Cite as

The Implications of Climate Change on Floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers in Bangladesh

  • M. Monirul Qader Mirza
  • R. A. Warrick
  • N. J. Ericksen
Article

Abstract

Climate change in the future would have implications for river discharges in Bangladesh. In this article, possible changes in the magnitude, extent and depth of floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) rivers in Bangladesh were assessed using a sequence of empirical models and the MIKE11-GIS hydrodynamic model. Climate change scenarios were constructed from the results of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) –CSIRO9, UKTR, GFDL and LLNL, which demonstrate a range of uncertainties. Changes in magnitude, depth and extent of flood discharge vary considerably between the GCMs. Future changes in the peak discharge of the Ganges River are expected to be higher than those for the Brahmaputra River. Peak discharge of the Meghna River may also increase considerably. As a result, significant changes in the spatial extent and depths of inundation in Bangladesh may occur. Faster changes in inundation are expected at low temperature increases than of higher temperature changes. Changes in land inundation categories may introduce substantial changes in rice agriculture and cropping patterns in Bangladesh. Reduction of increased flood hazard due to climate change requires strengthening of flood management policies and adaptation measures in Bangladesh.

Keywords

Climate Change General Circulation Model River Discharge Change Scenario Climate Change Scenario 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ahmad, Q. K.: 2000, ‘Opening Statement’, in Ahmad, Q. K., Chowdhury, A. K., Azad, Imam, S. H., and Sarker, M. (eds.), Perspectives on Flood 1998, University Press Limited, Dhaka, pp. 133–136.Google Scholar
  2. Ahmad, Q. K. and Warrick, R. A.: 1996, The Implications of Climate and Sea-Level Change for Bangladesh, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, the Netherlands.Google Scholar
  3. Ahmed, A. U.: 2001, ‘Adaptability of Bangladesh's Crop Agriculture to Climate Change: Possibilities and Limitations’, Asia Pacif. J. Environ. Develop. 7, 71–93.Google Scholar
  4. Ahmed, A. U. and Mirza, M. M. Q.: 2000, ‘Review of Causes and Dimensions of Floods with Particular Reference to Flood '98: National Perspectives’, in Ahmad, Q. K., Chowdhury, A. K. Azad, Imam, S. H., and Sarker, M. (eds.), Perspectives on Flood 1998, University Press Limited, Dhaka, pp. 67–84.Google Scholar
  5. Asian Development Bank (ADB): 1994, Climate Change in Asia: Bangladesh Country Report, ADB, Manila, the Philippines.Google Scholar
  6. Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB): 1987, Flood in Bangladesh 1987: Investigation, Review and Recommendation for Flood Control, BWDB, Dhaka.Google Scholar
  7. Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB): 1995, Daily Discharge Data for the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers, BWDB, Dhaka.Google Scholar
  8. Berry, W. D. and Feldman, S.: 1985, Multiple Regression in Practice, Sage Publications, London.Google Scholar
  9. Bhattacharya, D.: 1998, ‘Bangladesh Economy after Flood'98: The Macroeconomic Outlook’, Center for Development Alternatives, Dhaka, unpublished paper.Google Scholar
  10. Bowerman, B. L. and O'Connell, R. T.: 1990, Linear Statistical Models: An Applied Approach, Thompson Information/Publishing Group, Boston.Google Scholar
  11. Brammer, H.: 1990, ‘Floods in Bangladesh I. Geographical Background to the 1987 and 1988 Floods’, Geogr. J. 156, 12–22.Google Scholar
  12. Carter, T. R., Parry, M. L., Harasawa, H., and Nishioka, S.: 1994, IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations, WMO/UNEP.Google Scholar
  13. Cattel, R. B.: 1966, ‘The Scree Test for the Number of Factors’, Multi. Behavral. Res. 1, 245–276.Google Scholar
  14. Climatic Research Unit (CRU): 1995, The MAGGIC/SCENGEN Climate Scenario Generator, Technical Manual, CRU, University of East Anglia, U.K.Google Scholar
  15. Cook, R. D. and Wesberg, S.: 1982, Residuals and Influence in Regression, Chapman and Hall, New York.Google Scholar
  16. Cubasch, U., Hegerl, G. C., and Waskewitz, J.: 1996, ‘Prediction, Detection and Regional Assessment of Anthropogenic Climate Change’, Geophysica 32, 77–96.Google Scholar
  17. Dunteman, G. H.: 1989, Principal Components Analysis, Sage, London, U.K.Google Scholar
  18. Flood Action Plan 19 (FAP 19): 1995, National Digital Elevation Model: A 500 Meter Resolution Land Surface Model of Bangladesh, ISPAN, Dhaka.Google Scholar
  19. French Engineering Consortium (FEC): 1989, Prefeasibility Study for Flood Control in Bangladesh, Vol. 2: Present Conditions, FEC, Paris.Google Scholar
  20. Gordon, H. B., Whetton, P. H., Pittock, A. B., Fowler, A. M., and Haylock, M. R.: 1992, ‘Simulated Changes in Daily Rainfall Intensity Due to Enhanced Greenhouse Effect’, Clim. Dyn. 8, 83–102.Google Scholar
  21. Hamilton, L. S.: 1987, ‘What Are the Impacts of Himalayan Deforestation on the Ganges-Brahmaputra Lowlands and Delta?’, Mountain Res. Develop. 7, 256–263.Google Scholar
  22. Hofer, T.: 1998, ‘Do Land Use Changes in the Himalayas Affect Downstream Flooding?-Traditional Understanding and New Evidences’, in Kale, V. S. (ed.), Flood Studies in India, Geological Society of India, Bangalore, pp. 119–141.Google Scholar
  23. Hulme, M.: 1994, ‘Regional Climate Change Scenarios Based on IPCC Emissions Projections with Some Illustrations for Africa’, Area 26, 33–44.Google Scholar
  24. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis-Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, IPCC WGI, London.Google Scholar
  25. Ives, J. D. and Messerli, B.: 1989, The Himalayan Dilemma: Reconciling Development and Conservation, Routledge, New York.Google Scholar
  26. Kaiser, H. F.: 1960, ‘Application of Electronic Computers for Factor Analysis’, Educational Pshy. Measurement 20, 141–151.Google Scholar
  27. Khalequzzaman, Md.: 1994, ‘Recent Floods in Bangladesh: Possible Causes and Solutions’, Natural Hazards 9, 65–80.Google Scholar
  28. Lal, M., Harasawa, H., and Murdiyarso, D.: 2001, ‘Asia’, in McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., and White, K. S. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, U.K., pp. 533–590.Google Scholar
  29. Maidment, D. R.: 1993, Handbook of Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York.Google Scholar
  30. Manly, B. F. J.: 1986, Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Primer, Chapman and Hall, London.Google Scholar
  31. Master Plan Organisation (MPO): 1987, Floods and Storms, Technical Report No. 11, MPO, Dhaka.Google Scholar
  32. McGregor, J. L., Gordon, H. B., Watterson, I. G., Dix, M. R., and Rotstayn, L. D.: 1993, The CSIRO9-level Atmospheric General Circulation Model, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No. 26, CSIRO, PMB1, Mordialloc, Victoria 3195, Australia.Google Scholar
  33. Mirza, M. M. Q.: 1997, Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Flooding in Bangladesh, Ph.D. Thesis, International Global Change Institute (IGCI), University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand, unpublished.Google Scholar
  34. Mirza, M. M. Q.: 2002, ‘The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty: Risk Analysis of the Negotiated Discharge’, Int. J. Water 2(1), 57–73.Google Scholar
  35. Mirza, M. M. Q.: 2003, ‘Three Recent Extreme Floods in Bangladesh: A Hydro-meteorological Analysis’, Natural Hazards 28(1), 35–64.Google Scholar
  36. Mirza, M. M.Q and Dixit, A.: 1997, ‘Climate Change and Water Resources in the GBM Basins’ Water Nepal 5, 71–100.Google Scholar
  37. Mirza, M. M. Q, Warrick, R. A., Ericksen, N. J., and Kenny, G. J.: 1998, ‘Trends and Persistence in Precipitation in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Basins in South Asia’, Hydrol. Sci. J. 43, 845–858.Google Scholar
  38. Mirza, M. M. Q., Warrick, R. A., Ericksen, N. J., and Kenny, G. J.: 2002, ‘Are Floods Getting Worse in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Basins?’, Environ. Hazards 3, 37–48.Google Scholar
  39. Morgan, R. P. C.: 1971, ‘Rainfall in West Malaysia-A Preliminary Regionalisation Using Principal Components Analysis’, Area 3, 222–227.Google Scholar
  40. Murphy, J.M. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1995, ‘Transient Reponse to the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part II. Spatial and Temporal Structure of Response’, J. Climate 8, 57–80.Google Scholar
  41. Ogallo, L. J.: 1989, ‘The Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the East African Seasonal Rainfall Derived from Principal Component Analysis’, Int. J. Clim. 9, 145–167.Google Scholar
  42. Paul, B. K. and Rasid, H.: 1993, ‘Flood Damage to Rice Crops in Bangladesh’, Geogr. Rev. 83, 151–159.Google Scholar
  43. Pike, J. G.: 1964, ‘Estimation of Annual Runoff from Meteorological Data in a Tropical Climate’, J. Hydrol. 2, 116–123.Google Scholar
  44. Regenmortel, G. V.: 1995, ‘Regionalisation of Botsowana Rainfall during the 1980s Using Principal Component Analysis’, Int. J. Clim. 5, 313–323.Google Scholar
  45. Resource Analysis: 1993, The Vulnerability Analysis of Bangladesh to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise, Summary Report, Resource Analysis and Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Amsterdam, The Netherlands.Google Scholar
  46. Roeckner, E., Bengtsson, L., Feitcher, J., Leliveld, J., and Rodhe, H.: 1999, ‘Transient Climate Change with a Coupled Atmosphere-ocean GCM, Including Tropospheric Sulphur Cycle’, J. Climate 12, 3004–3032.Google Scholar
  47. Salinger, J. M.: 1980, New Zealand Climate: The Instrumental Method, Ph.D. Thesis, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, unpublished.Google Scholar
  48. Warrick, R. A., Kenny, G. J., Sims, G. C., Ericksen, N. J., Ahmad, Q. K., and Mirza, M. M. Q.: 1996, ‘Integrated Model Systems for National Assessments of the Effects of Climate Change: Applications in New Zealand and Bangladesh’, in Erda, L., Bolhofer, W. C., Huq, S., Lenhart, S., Mukerjee, S. K., Smith, J. B., and Wisniewski, J. (eds.), Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, pp. 215–227.Google Scholar
  49. Whener, M. F. and Convey, C.: 1995, Description and Validation of the LLNL/UCLA Parallel Atmospheric GCM, Technical Report UCRL-D-123223, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.Google Scholar
  50. Wetherald, R. T. and Manabe, S.: 1986, ‘An Investigation of Cloud Cover Change in Response to Thermal Forcing’, Clim. Change 8, 5–23.Google Scholar
  51. World Meteorological Organisation (WMO): 1987, Water Resources and Climate Change: Sensitivity of Water-Resource to Climate Change and Variability, WMO, Geneva.Google Scholar
  52. World Bank: 1989, Bangladesh: Action Plan for Flood Control, World Bank, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • M. Monirul Qader Mirza
    • 1
  • R. A. Warrick
    • 2
  • N. J. Ericksen
    • 2
  1. 1.Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG), Environment Canada at Institute for Environmental Studies (IES)University of TorontoTorontoCanada
  2. 2.International Global Change Instiute (IGCI)University of WaikatoHamiltonNew Zealand

Personalised recommendations