Advertisement

Solar Physics

, Volume 209, Issue 1, pp 171–183 | Cite as

Active-Region Monitoring and Flare Forecasting – I. Data Processing and First Results

  • Peter T. Gallagher
  • Y.-J. Moon
  • Haimin Wang
Article

Abstract

This paper discusses a near real-time approach to solar active-region monitoring and flare prediction using the Big Bear Solar Observatory Active Region Monitor (ARM). Every hour, ARM reads, calibrates, and analyses a variety of data including: full-disk Hα images from the Global Hα Network; EUV, continuum, and magnetogram data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO); and full-disk magnetograms from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG). For the first time, magnetic gradient maps derived from GONG longitudinal magnetograms are now available on-line and are found to be a useful diagnostic of flare activity. ARM also includes a variety of active-region properties from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center, such as up-to-date active-region positions, GOES 5-min X-ray data, and flare-to-region identifications. Furthermore, we have developed a Flare Prediction System which estimates the probability for each region to produce C-, M-, or X-class flares based on nearly eight years of NOAA data from cycle 22. This, in addition to BBSO's daily solar activity reports, has proven a useful resource for activity forecasting.

Keywords

Flare Global Oscillation Network Group Flare Activity Heliospheric Observatory Activity Forecast 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Supplementary material

5093369.zip (1.5 mb)
Supplementary material, approximately 1.47 MB.

References

  1. Bornmann, P. L. and Shaw, D.: 1994, Solar Phys. 150, 127.ADSGoogle Scholar
  2. Bornmann, P. L., Kalmbach, D., and Kulhanek, D.: 1994, Solar Phys. 150, 147.ADSGoogle Scholar
  3. Delaboudiniè re, J.-P. et al.: 1995, Solar Phys. 162, 291.ADSGoogle Scholar
  4. Denker, C., Johannesson, A., Marquette, W., Goode, P. R., Wang, H., and Zirin, H.: 1999, Solar Phys. 184, 87.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  5. Freeland, S. L. and Handy, B. N.: 1998, Solar Phys., 182, 497.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  6. Gao, J., Wang, H., and Zhou, M.: 2002, Solar Phys. 205, 93.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  7. Gallagher, P. T. et al.: 2002, Ann. Geophys., submitted.Google Scholar
  8. Goode, P. R., Wang, H., Marquette, W. H., and Denker, C.: 2000, Solar Phys. 195, 421.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  9. Harvey, J. W. et al.: 1996, Science 272, 1284.ADSGoogle Scholar
  10. Kildahl, K. J. N.: 1980, in R. F. Donnelly (ed.), Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings 3, 166.Google Scholar
  11. Kuhn, J. R., Lin, H., and Loranz, D.: 1991, Publ. Astron. Soc. Pacific 103, 1097.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  12. McIntosh, P. S.: 1990, Solar Phys. 125, 251.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  13. Moon, Y.-J., Choe, G. S., Yun, H. S., and Park, Y. D.: 2001, J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys. 106, 29951.ADSGoogle Scholar
  14. Otruba, W.: 1999, in B. Schmieder, A. Hofmann, and J. Staude (eds.), Third Advances in Solar Physics Euroconference: Magnetic Fields and Oscillations, ASP Conference Series 184, 314.Google Scholar
  15. Sammis, I., Tang, F., and Zirin, H.: 2000, Astrophys. J. 540, L583.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  16. Scherrer, P. H. et al.: 1995, Solar Phys. 162, 129.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  17. Steinegger, M. et al.: 2000, ESA Special Publ. 463, 617.ADSGoogle Scholar
  18. Wheatland, M. S.: 2000, Astrophys. J. 536, L109.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  19. Wheatland, M. S.: 2001, Solar Phys. 203, 87.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  20. Zhang, H., Ai, G., Yan, X., Li, W., and Liu, Y: 1994, Astrophys. J. 423, 828.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar
  21. Zirin, H. and Marquette, W.: 1991, Solar Phys. 131, 149.CrossRefADSGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

Authors and Affiliations

  • Peter T. Gallagher
    • 1
  • Y.-J. Moon
    • 2
  • Haimin Wang
    • 3
  1. 1.Laboratory for Astronomy and Solar Physics, NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterL-3 Communications Analytics CorporationGreenbeltU.S.A
  2. 2.Korea Astronomy ObservatoryDaejonRep. of Korea
  3. 3.Big Bear Solar ObservatoryNew Jersey Institute of TechnologyBig Bear CityU.S.A

Personalised recommendations