Active-Region Monitoring and Flare Forecasting – I. Data Processing and First Results
- 449 Downloads
This paper discusses a near real-time approach to solar active-region monitoring and flare prediction using the Big Bear Solar Observatory Active Region Monitor (ARM). Every hour, ARM reads, calibrates, and analyses a variety of data including: full-disk Hα images from the Global Hα Network; EUV, continuum, and magnetogram data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO); and full-disk magnetograms from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG). For the first time, magnetic gradient maps derived from GONG longitudinal magnetograms are now available on-line and are found to be a useful diagnostic of flare activity. ARM also includes a variety of active-region properties from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center, such as up-to-date active-region positions, GOES 5-min X-ray data, and flare-to-region identifications. Furthermore, we have developed a Flare Prediction System which estimates the probability for each region to produce C-, M-, or X-class flares based on nearly eight years of NOAA data from cycle 22. This, in addition to BBSO's daily solar activity reports, has proven a useful resource for activity forecasting.
KeywordsFlare Global Oscillation Network Group Flare Activity Heliospheric Observatory Activity Forecast
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Gallagher, P. T. et al.: 2002, Ann. Geophys., submitted.Google Scholar
- Kildahl, K. J. N.: 1980, in R. F. Donnelly (ed.), Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings 3, 166.Google Scholar
- Otruba, W.: 1999, in B. Schmieder, A. Hofmann, and J. Staude (eds.), Third Advances in Solar Physics Euroconference: Magnetic Fields and Oscillations, ASP Conference Series 184, 314.Google Scholar