Aerobiologia

, Volume 18, Issue 2, pp 117–123 | Cite as

Predicting the start of the birch pollen season at London, Derby and Cardiff, United Kingdom, using a multiple regression model, based on data from 1987 to 1997

  • B. Adams-Groom
  • J. Emberlin
  • J. Corden
  • W Millington
  • J. Mullins

Abstract

Recent changes in weather in North-West Europehave been reflected in the start dates ofpollen seasons. It is therefore necessary toupdate previous models, such as the oneproduced by Jones (1995), so that the modelwill be weighted by current weather patterns. Birch pollen data, collected over a period ofeleven years (1987 to 1997 inclusive) fromthree pollen counting stations in the UK,London, Derby and Cardiff, were analysed todetermine the start dates using the Sum75method. The start dates of the birch pollenseasons of the eleven-year period were thentested for significance against ten-dayaggregated variables of temperature andrainfall for each site. The significantvariables were entered into multiple regressionmodels until the most valid equation for eachsite was found. The models were then tested onthree years not included in their data sets. The models showed mean differences betweenactual and predicted start dates, for theeleven years used, of 1.5, 3 and 5 days atDerby, Cardiff and London respectively. Forthe test years the mean difference was 1, 4.5and 7.5 days at Derby, Cardiff and Londonrespectively. The most powerful model was forDerby where the corresponding meteorologicalstation is at 0.5 km distance and the weakestwas for London where the correspondingmeteorological station is much further away at21 km distance. Weather variables from earlyFebruary to mid March were found to be the mostinfluential on the start dates of the birchpollen season at the three sites.

aerobiology birch pollen season predictive model start dates 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Andersen T.B.: 1991, A model to predict the beginning of the pollen season. Grana 30, 269-275.Google Scholar
  2. Brown D.S.: 1960, The relation of temperature to the growth of apricot flower buds. Proc Amer Soc Hort Sci 75, 138-147.Google Scholar
  3. Chandler W.H.: 1925, Fruit Growing. Houghton Mifflin, Boston.Google Scholar
  4. Emberlin J. and Norris-Hill J.: 1991, Spatial variation of pollen deposition in North London. Grana 30, 190-195.Google Scholar
  5. Emberlin J., Savage M. and Woodman R.: 1993, Annual variations in the concentrations of Betula pollen in the London area, 1961-1990. Grana 32, 359-363.Google Scholar
  6. Emberlin J., Mullins J., Corden J., Millington W., Brooke M., Savage M. and Jones S.: 1997, The trend to earlier birch pollen seasons in the UK: A biotic response to changes in the weather conditions? Grana 36, 29-33.Google Scholar
  7. Faust M.: 1989, Physiology of Temperate Zone Fruit Trees. John Wiley and Sons, London, pp. 169-234.Google Scholar
  8. Jones S.: 1995, Allergenic pollen concentrations in the United Kingdom. PhD thesis, University of North London.Google Scholar
  9. Kramer P.J. and Kozlowski T.T.: 1979, Environmental control of reproductive growth. Physiology of Woody Plants, 688-693.Google Scholar
  10. Norris-Hill J.: 1998, A method to forecast the start of the Betula, Platanus and Quercus pollen seasons in North London. Aerobiologia 14(2,3), 165-170.Google Scholar
  11. Spieksma F.Th.M., Emberlin J.C., Hjelmroos M., Jager S. and Leuschner R.M.: 1995, Atmospheric birch (Betula) pollen in Europe: Trends and fluctuations in annual quantities and the starting dates of the seasons. Grana 34, 51-57.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

Authors and Affiliations

  • B. Adams-Groom
    • 1
  • J. Emberlin
    • 1
  • J. Corden
    • 2
  • W Millington
    • 2
  • J. Mullins
    • 3
  1. 1.National Pollen Research UnitUniversity College WorcesterWorcesterUK
  2. 2.Midlands Asthma and Allergy Research AssociationDerbyUK
  3. 3.Llandough HospitalCardiff, S. GlamorganUK

Personalised recommendations