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Statistics and Computing

, Volume 11, Issue 3, pp 269–275 | Cite as

Monte Carlo Based Ensemble Forecasting

  • L. Mark Berliner
Article

Abstract

Ensemble forecasting involves the use of several integrations of a numerical model. Even if this model is assumed to be known, ensembles are needed due to uncertainty in initial conditions. The ideas discussed in this paper incorporate aspects of both analytic model approximations and Monte Carlo arguments to gain some efficiency in the generation and use of ensembles. Efficiency is gained through the use of importance sampling Monte Carlo. Once ensemble members are generated, suggestions for their use, involving both approximation and statistical notions such as kernel density estimation and mixture modeling are discussed. Fully deterministic procedures derived from the Monte Carlo analysis are also described. Examples using the three-dimensional Lorenz system are described.

chaos importance sampling kernel density estimation mixtures Monte Carlo numerical weather forecasting tangent linear approximation 

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • L. Mark Berliner
    • 1
  1. 1.Ohio State University & National Institute of Statistical SciencesUSA

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