Health Care Management Science

, Volume 5, Issue 2, pp 103–111 | Cite as

Modeling the Costs and Outcomes of Cardiovascular Surgery

  • James G. Anderson
  • William Harshbarger
  • H.C. Weng
  • Stephen J. Jay
  • Marilyn M. Anderson


Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) operations consume more health care resources than any other single procedure. The objective of this study was to develop a computer simulation model that can be used to predict costs and patient outcomes of CABG surgery. The analysis is based on a systems dynamic model developed using STELLA software. Two sets of data from Medicare patients who underwent CABG operations at Methodist Hospital of Indiana were used to construct and validate the model. The model predictions of length of hospital stay, use of specialists in caring for patients, costs and postoperative functional status are reasonably close to actual data on patients who underwent CABG surgery. The analysis indicates the most important factors affecting costs and outcomes are gender, age, whether or not the surgery is a reoperation and whether the patient experiences postoperative complications. The model can be used to predict costs and outcomes for a patient population from a small set of preoperative characteristics (i.e., age, gender, DRG, whether the surgery is a reoperation, and the patient's operative status). A second potential use of the model is to answer clinical questions such as do the costs and risks of CABG operations outweigh the benefits for patients with certain risk factors.


Computer Simulation Model Postoperative Complication Functional Status Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Economic Policy 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

Authors and Affiliations

  • James G. Anderson
    • 1
  • William Harshbarger
    • 2
  • H.C. Weng
    • 3
  • Stephen J. Jay
    • 4
  • Marilyn M. Anderson
    • 5
  1. 1.Purdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA
  2. 2.Rush-Presbyterian-St. Lukes Medical CenterChicagoUSA
  3. 3.College of Public HealthNational Taiwan UniversityTaiwan
  4. 4.Indiana University School of MedicineIndianapolisUSA
  5. 5.Anderson ConsultingWest LafayetteUSA

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