Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy

, Volume 81, Issue 1–2, pp 93–101 | Cite as

Collision Probability for Earth-Crossing Asteroids Using Orbital Ranging

  • Karri Muinonen
  • Jenni Virtanen
  • Edward Bowell


We introduce new techniques for the computation of the collision probability for Earth-crossing asteroids in the case of short observational arcs and/or small numbers of observations. The techniques rely on the orbital element probability density computed using statistical orbital ranging. We apply the techniques to the Earth-crossing asteroid 1998 OX4with non-vanishing collision probability in numerous close approaches after the year 2012 (inclusive). We study the invariance of the collision probability in transformations between different orbital element sets, and develop a Spearman rank correlation measure for the validity of the linear approximation. We introduce an optimized, fast version of the statistical ranging method.

collision probability orbit determination Earth-crossing asteroids 


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© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Karri Muinonen
  • Jenni Virtanen
  • Edward Bowell

There are no affiliations available

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