Stochastic modelling of the first-citation distribution
A simple stochastic model, based upon mixtures of non-homogeneous Poisson processes, is proposed to describe the citation process in the presence of ageing/obsolescence. Particular emphasis is placed upon investigation of the first-citation distribution where it is shown that in the presence of ageing there will inevitably be never cited items. Conditions are given which show how the model is capable of modelling the various shapes of first citation distributions reported in the literature. In particular, the essential link between the first citation distribution and the obsolescence distribution is established.
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