Solar Physics

, Volume 202, Issue 2, pp 395–406 | Cite as

Did Predictions of the Maximum Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23 Come True?

  • R.P. Kane
Article

Abstract

For solar cycle 23, the maximum sunspot number was predicted by several workers, and the range was very wide, ∼80–210. Cycle 23 started in 1996 and seems to have peaked in 2000, with a smoothed sunspot number maximum of ∼122. From about 20 predictions, 8 were within 122±20. There is an indication that a long-term oscillation of ∼80–100 years may be operative and might have peaked near cycle 20 (1970), and sunspot maxima in cycles in the near future may be smaller and smaller for the next 50 years or so and rebound thereafter in the next 50 years or so.

Keywords

Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Maximum Sunspot Smooth Sunspot Number Maximum Sunspot Number 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ahluwalia, H. S.: 1998, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 12103.Google Scholar
  2. Ahluwalia, H. S.: 2000, J. Geophys. Res. 105, 27481.Google Scholar
  3. Bounar, K. H., Cliver, E. W., and Boriakoff, V.: 1997, Solar Phys. 176, 211.Google Scholar
  4. Bravo S. and Stewart, G. A.: 1997, Solar Phys. 173, 193.Google Scholar
  5. Brown, G. M. and Williams, W. R.: 1969. Planetary Space Sci. 17, 455.Google Scholar
  6. Calvo, R. A., Ceccatto, H. A., and Piacentini, R. D.: 1995, Astrophys. J. 444, 916.Google Scholar
  7. Chistyakov, V. F.: 1983, Soln. Dann. No. 1, 97.Google Scholar
  8. Feynman, J.: 1982, J. Geophys. Res. 87, 6153.Google Scholar
  9. Gleissberg, W.: 1965, J. Br. Astron. Assoc. 75, 227.Google Scholar
  10. Guiqing, Z. and Huaning, W.: 1999, Solar Phys. 188, 397.Google Scholar
  11. Hanslmeier, A., Denkmayr, K., and Weiss, P.: 1999, Solar Phys. 184, 213.Google Scholar
  12. Hathaway, D. H., Wilson, R. M., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1999, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 22375.Google Scholar
  13. Hoyt, D. V. and Schatten, K. H.: 1998, Solar Phys. 179, 189.Google Scholar
  14. Jain, R.: 1998, Solar Phys. 176, 431.Google Scholar
  15. Joselyn, J. A., Anderson, J. B., Coffey, H., Harvey, K., Hathaway, D., Heckman, G., Hildner, E., Mende, W., Schatten, K., Thompson, R., Thomson, A. W. P., and White, O. R.: 1997, EOS Trans. AGU 78, 205.Google Scholar
  16. Kane, R. P.: 1978, Nature 274, 139.Google Scholar
  17. Kane, R. P.: 1987, Solar Phys. 108, 415.Google Scholar
  18. Kane, R. P.: 1992, Solar Phys. 140, 171.Google Scholar
  19. Kane, R. P.: 1997a, Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 1899.Google Scholar
  20. Kane, R. P.: 1997b, Ann. Geophys. 15, 1581.Google Scholar
  21. Kane, R. P.: 1998, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 3121.Google Scholar
  22. Kane, R. P.: 1999, Solar Phys. 189, 217.Google Scholar
  23. Kontor, N. N., Lyubimov, G. P., Pereslegina, N. V., and Khotilovckaya, T. G.: 1983, Soln. Dann. No. 11, 74.Google Scholar
  24. Kopecký, M.: 1991, Bull. Astron. Inst. Czech. 42, 157.Google Scholar
  25. Lantos, P.: 2000, La Recherche 332, 16.Google Scholar
  26. Letfus, V.: 1994, Solar Phys. 149, 405.Google Scholar
  27. Legrand, J. P. and Simon, P. A.: 1991, Solar Phys. 131, 187.Google Scholar
  28. Li, Y.: 1997, Solar Phys. 170, 437.Google Scholar
  29. Mayaud, P. N.: 1973, IAGA Bull. 33, 262.Google Scholar
  30. Makorov, V. I. and Mikhailutsa, V. P.: 1991, Problemy solnechnoi aktivnosti, p. 146.Google Scholar
  31. McKinnon, J. A.: 1987, UAG Report 95, NOAA Boulder, Colorado, U. S. A., p. 112.Google Scholar
  32. Nevanlinna, H. and Kataja, E.: 1993, Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 2703.Google Scholar
  33. Obridko, V. N., Oraevsky, V. N., and Allen, J. H.: 1994, in D. N., Baker, V. O., Papitashvilli, and M. J., Teague (eds.), Colloquia Series 5, 557.Google Scholar
  34. Ohl, A. I.: 1966, Soln. Dann. No. 12, 84.Google Scholar
  35. Ohl, A. I.: 1976, Soln. Dann. No. 9, 73.Google Scholar
  36. Ohl, A. I. and Ohl, G. I.: 1979, in: R. F. Donnelly (ed.), Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings, NOAA/Space Environmental Laboratories, Boulder, Colorado, p. 258.Google Scholar
  37. Rangarajan, G. K.: 1998, Earth Planet Space 50, 91.Google Scholar
  38. Rivin, Yu. R.: 1992, Cycles of Natural Processes, Dangerous Phenomena, and Ecological Forecasting, MNTK, Geos, Moscow, p. 144.Google Scholar
  39. Sargent, H. H. III.: 1978, Proc. 28th IEEE Vehicular Technical Conf., Denver, p. 490.Google Scholar
  40. Schatten, K. H. and Pesnell, W. D.: 1993, Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 2275.Google Scholar
  41. Schatten, K., Meyers, D. J., and Sofia, S.: 1996, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 605.Google Scholar
  42. Schatten, K. H., Scherrer, P. N., Svalgaard, L., and Wilcox, J. M.: 1978, Geophys. Res. Lett. 5, 411.Google Scholar
  43. Schove, D. G.: 1983, Ann. Geophys. 1, 391.Google Scholar
  44. Shastri, S.: 1998, Solar Phys. 180, 499.Google Scholar
  45. Thompson, R. J.: 1993, Solar Phys. 148, 383.Google Scholar
  46. Thompson, R. J.: 1996, Proc. Solar Terrestrial Predictions V, Proc. of a Workshop at Hitachi, Japan.Google Scholar
  47. Tritakis, V. P.: 1986, Solar Terrestrial Predictions, Proc. Workshop in Meudon, France, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A., p. 106.Google Scholar
  48. Wilson, R. M.: 1988a, Geophys. Res. Lett. 15, 125.Google Scholar
  49. Wilson, R. M.: 1988b, Solar Phys. 117, 269.Google Scholar
  50. Wilson, R. M.: 1990, Solar Phys. 125, 143.Google Scholar
  51. Wilson, R. M.: 1992, Solar Phys. 140, 181.Google Scholar
  52. Wilson, R. M. and Hathaway, D. H.: 1999, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 2555.Google Scholar
  53. Wilson, R. M., Hathaway, D. H., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1998a, J. Geophys. Res. 103, 6596.Google Scholar
  54. Wilson, R. M., Hathaway, D. H., and Reichmann, E. J.: 1998b, NASA/TP-1998-208591.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • R.P. Kane
    • 1
  1. 1.INPEInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas EspaciaisSão José dos Campos, SPBrazil

Personalised recommendations