Global Change and Human Health

, Volume 2, Issue 1, pp 80–84 | Cite as

Global Warming and Risk of Vivax Malaria in Great Britain

  • Steve W. Lindsay
  • Chris J. Thomas


Malaria (ague) was once common in many parts of Great Britain (GB). Here we identify areas currently at risk from vivax malaria and examine how this pattern may change as a consequence of global warming during this century. We used a mathematical model to describe how temperature affects the risk of vivax malaria, transmitted by a common British mosquito, Anopheles atroparvus. This model was linked with present-day temperature surfaces and future temperature change scenarios for GB, and used to map areas suitable for malaria transmission. We found an excellent agreement between the present-day risk map for malaria and historical records of ague distribution. This study demonstrates that many parts of GB are warm enough for malaria transmission and the extent of these areas are likely to increase in the future. Health services need to remain aware of the possibility of locally-transmitted malaria, particularly in marshland areas in southern England.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. [1]
    James SP. The disappearance of malaria from England. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine 1929;23:71-85.Google Scholar
  2. [2]
    Dobson M. Malaria in England: a geographical and historical perspective. Parassitologia 1994;36:35-60.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  3. [3]
    Shute PG, Maryon M. Malaria in England past, present and future. Royal Society of Health 1974;1:23–29 & 49.Google Scholar
  4. [4]
    Ritchie J. The influence of man on animal life in Scotland. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1920.Google Scholar
  5. [5]
    Baldari M, Tamburro A, Sabatinelli G, Romi R, Severini C, Cuccagna G, et a l. Malaria in Maremma, Italy. The Lancet 1988;351:1246–1247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. [6]
    Simini B. First case of indigenous malaria reported in Italy for 40 years. The Lancet 1997;350:717.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. [7]
    Layton M, Parise M, Campbell C, Advani R, Sexton J, Bosler E. Mosquito-transmitted malaria in New York City, 1993. The Lancet 1995;346:729–731.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. [8]
    Boyd MF. Malariology. A comprehensive survey of all apsects of this group of diseases from a global standpoint. Philadelphia and London: Saunders, W.B..; 1949.Google Scholar
  9. [9]
    Shute PG. Malaria in England. Public Health 1945;58:62–5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. [10]
    Ramsdale CD, Coluzzi M. Studies on the infectivity of tropical African strains of Plasmodium falciparum to some southern European vectors of malaria. Parassitologia 1975;17:39–48.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  11. [11]
    James S. Some general results of a study of induced malaria in England. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 1931;24:477–525.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. [12]
    Shute PG. Failure to infect English specimens of Anopheles maculipennis var. atroparvus with certain strains of Plasmodium falciparum of tropical origin. Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 1940;43:175–8.Google Scholar
  13. [13]
    Lindsay SW, Birley MH. Climate change and malaria transmission. Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology 1996;90:573–588.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  14. [14]
    Aaron J, May R. The population dynamics of malaria. In: Anderson R, editor. Population dynamics of infectious diseases. London: Chapman & Hall; 1982. p. 139–179.Google Scholar
  15. [15]
    Jetten T, Takken W. Anophelism without malaria in Europe. A review of the ecology and distribution of the genus Anopheles in Europe. Wageningen: Wageningen Agricultural University; 1994.Google Scholar
  16. [16]
    Detinova T. Age-grouping methods in Diptera of medical importance. Geneva: World Health Organisation; 1962.Google Scholar
  17. [17]
    Moshkovsky S, Rashina M. Epidémiologie et parasitologie médicale à l'usage des entomologistes. Moscow; 1951.Google Scholar
  18. [18]
    Manley G. The mean temperature of Central England, 1698 to 1952. Quarterly Journal of Research of the Meteorological Society 1953;79:242–261.Google Scholar
  19. [19]
    Manley G. Central England Temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973. Quarterly Journal of Research of the Meteorological Society 1974;100: 389–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. [20]
    Center NCD. The global historical climatology network. In. 1 ed. Asheville:; 2000.Google Scholar
  21. [21]
    Hulme M, Jenkins G. Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom. UKCIP Technical Report No. 1. Norwich: Climate Research Unit; 1998 October 1998.Google Scholar
  22. [22]
    E.S.R.I. Arc/Info. In. 7.0 ed. Redlands California: Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc.; 1996.Google Scholar
  23. [23]
    Nuttall G, Cobett L, Strangeways-Pigg T. Studies in relation to malaria. I. The geographical distribution of Anopheles in relation to the former distribution of ague in England. Journal of Hygiene 1901;1:4–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. [24]
    Graham H. The social life of Scotland in the eighteenth century. London; 1901.Google Scholar
  25. [25]
    Snow KR, Rees AT, Bulbeck SJ. A provisional atlas of the mosquitoes of Britain. London: University of East London; 1998.Google Scholar
  26. [26]
    Davidson N, d'A Laffoley D, Doody J, Way L, Gordon J, Key R, e t al. Nature conservation and estuaries in Great Britain. Peterborough: Nature Conservancy Council; 1991.Google Scholar
  27. [27]
    Snow K. Malaria and mosquitoes in B ritain: the effect of global climate change. European Mosquito Bulletin 1999(4):17–25.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Steve W. Lindsay
    • 1
  • Chris J. Thomas
    • 2
  1. 1.Biomedical Sciences Science LaboratoriesUniversity of Durham School of BiologicalDurhamUK
  2. 2.Biomedical Sciences Science LaboratoriesUniversity of Durham School of BiologicalDurhamUK

Personalised recommendations