Global Change and Human Health

, Volume 2, Issue 1, pp 54–63 | Cite as

Predicting Malaria Epidemics in the Kenyan Highlands Using Climate Data: A Tool for Decision Makers

  • Andrew K. Githeko
  • William Ndegwa


While the underlying cause of malaria epidemics in the East African highlands remains a subject of debate, we argue that permissive climatic conditions in the normally cool highlands are required for the epidemics to occur. Analysis of climate data from East Africa suggested that, over the last decade, there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of anomalies in the mean monthly maximum temperatures. We found an association between rainfall and unusually high maximum temperatures and the number of inpatient malaria cases 3–4 months later. A malaria epidemic prediction model was then constructed.


Malaria Malaria Transmission Malaria Case Rift Valley Fever Vectorial Capacity 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Andrew K. Githeko
    • 1
  • William Ndegwa
    • 2
  1. 1.Kenya Medical Research InstituteKisumuKenya
  2. 2.Kenya Meteorology DepartmentKenya

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