Journal of Economic Growth

, Volume 6, Issue 3, pp 187–203

Is Declining Productivity Inevitable?

  • Carl-Johan Dalgaard
  • Claus Thustrup Kreiner
Article

Abstract

Fertility has been declining on all continents for the last couple of decades and this development is expected to continue in the future. Prevailing innovation-based growth theories imply, as a consequence of scale effects from the size of population, that such demographic changes will lead to a major slowdown in productivity growth. In this paper we challenge this pessimistic view of the future. By allowing for endogenous human capital in a basic R&D driven growth model we develop a theory of scale-invariant endogenous growth according to which population growth is neither necessary nor conductive for economic growth.

endogenous growth theory scale effects 

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carl-Johan Dalgaard
    • 1
  • Claus Thustrup Kreiner
    • 2
  1. 1.University of CopenhagenDenmark
  2. 2.EPRU, and CESifoUniversity of CopenhagenDenmark

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