Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia

  • Dimiter Philipov
  • Hans-Peter Kohler


A recent formula due to Bongaarts and Feeney allows us todisentangle tempo and quantum effects in changes of the totalfertility rate. This article applies the TFR adjustment toBulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia.Substantial differences between the adjusted and the observed TFRindicate important tempo effects in the recent decline offertility. Moreover, these five countries differ in the relativeimportance of tempo versus quantum effects, and in the periodwhen tempo effects are most relevant. We discuss the validity ofthe assumptions that underlie the usage of the formula and wetest whether age-period interactions may invalidate theseassumptions.


Czech Republic Public Finance Quantum Effect Fertility Decline Recent Decline 
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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Dimiter Philipov
    • 1
  • Hans-Peter Kohler
    • 2
  1. 1.Max-Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchRostockGermany
  2. 2.Max-Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchRostockGermany

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