The Sensitivity of Australian Fire Danger to Climate Change

Allyson A. J. Williams; David J. Karoly; Nigel Tapper

doi:10.1023/A:1010706116176

Climatic Change

April 2001, Volume 49, Issue 1–2, pp 171–191

The Sensitivity of Australian Fire Danger to Climate Change

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Allyson A. J. Williams
David J. Karoly
Nigel Tapper

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Abstract

Global climate change, such as that due to the proposed enhanced greenhouseeffect, is likely tohave a significant effect on biosphere-atmosphere interactions, includingbushfire regimes. Thisstudy quantifies the possible impact of climate change on fire regimes byestimating changes infire weather and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FDI), an index thatis used throughoutAustralia to estimate fire danger. The CSIRO 9-level general circulation model(CSIRO9 GCM)is used to simulate daily and seasonal fire danger for the present Australianclimate and for adoubled-CO₂ climate. The impact assessment includes validation ofthe GCMs daily controlsimulation and the derivation of ‘correction factors’ which improve theaccuracy of the firedanger simulation. In summary, the general impact of doubled-CO₂is to increase firedanger at all sites by increasing the number of days of very high and extremefire danger.Seasonal fire danger responds most to the large CO₂-induced changesin maximumtemperature.

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Authors and Affiliations

Allyson A. J. Williams
- 1
David J. Karoly
- 2
Nigel Tapper
- 1

1.Department of Geography and Environmental ScienceMonash UniversityClaytonAustralia
2.CRC Southern Hemisphere MeteorologyMonash UniversityClaytonAustralia

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The Sensitivity of Australian Fire Danger to Climate Change

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