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Climatic Change

, Volume 50, Issue 1–2, pp 219–249 | Cite as

Climate Change and Cryptosporidiosis: A Qualitative Analysis

  • Elizabeth Casman
  • Baruch Fischhoff
  • Mitchell Small
  • Hadi Dowlatabadi
  • Joan Rose
  • M. Granger Morgan
Article

Abstract

The effects of climate change on drinking-waterborne cryptosporidiosis transmission in the United States are analyzed using an influence diagram representation of epidemic development. Results from a systematic qualitative analysis indicate that climate change will have little effect on cryptosporidiosis incidence if the United States continues to be wealthy and maintains its commitment to public health. The major impact will, instead, be the additional costs of adapting to new climate regimes in order to avoid drinking-waterborne disease risk. These costs, for the most part, will be from improved monitoring and treatment of drinking water. The consequences of disaster scenarios are also considered. These, too, suggest that climate change per se will be a poor predictor of waterborne cryptosporidiosis in countries with high standards of living. Rather, the risk of epidemics will depend on the interplay between population, public health investment, infrastructure maintenance, emergency planning/response capabilities, water-treatment technologies, drinking-water regulations, and climate.

Keywords

Climate Change United States Drinking Water Disease Risk High Standard 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Elizabeth Casman
    • 1
  • Baruch Fischhoff
    • 1
    • 2
  • Mitchell Small
    • 1
    • 3
  • Hadi Dowlatabadi
    • 1
  • Joan Rose
    • 4
  • M. Granger Morgan
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Engineering and Public PolicyCarnegie Mellon UniversityPittsburghUSA
  2. 2.Department of Social and Decision SciencesCarnegie Mellon UniversityPittsburghUSA
  3. 3.Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringCarnegie Mellon UniversityPittsburghUSA
  4. 4.Department of Marine SciencesUniversity of South FloridaSt. PetersburgUSA

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