Solar Physics

, Volume 199, Issue 2, pp 421–435

Brightness of the Coronal Green Line and Prediction for Activity Cycles 23 and 24

  • O.G. Badalyan
  • V.N. Obridko
  • J. Sýkora
Article

Abstract

Cyclic variations of the mean semi-annual intensities Iλ of the coronal green line λ530.3 nm are compared with the mean semi-annual variations of the Wolf numbers W during the period of 1943–1999 (activity cycles 18–23). The values of Iλ in the equatorial zone proved to correlate much better with the Wolf numbers in a following cycle than in a given one (the correlation coefficient r is 0.86 and 0.755, respectively). Such increase of the correlation coefficient with a shift by one cycle differs in different phases of the cycle, being the largest at the ascending branch. The regularities revealed make it possible to predict the behaviour of W in the following cycle on the basis of intensities of the coronal green line in the preceding cycle. We predict the maximum semi-annual W in cycle 23 to be 110–122 and the epoch of minimum between cycles 23 and 24 to take place at 2006–2007. A slow increase of Iλ in the current cycle 23 permits us to forecast a low-Wolf-number cycle 24 with the maximum W∼50 at 2010–2011. A scheme is proposed on the permanent transformation of the coronal magnetic fields of different scales explaining the found phenomenon.

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • O.G. Badalyan
    • 1
  • V.N. Obridko
    • 1
  • J. Sýkora
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave PropagationTroitskRussia
  2. 2.Astronomical Institute of the Slovak Academy of SciencesTatranská LomnicaSlovak Republic

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