Advertisement

Natural Hazards

, Volume 17, Issue 2, pp 177–192 | Cite as

Development of Seismic Risk Scenarios Based on a Hybrid Method of Vulnerability Assessment

  • A. J. Kappos
  • K. C. Stylianidis
  • K. Pitilakis
Article

Abstract

A hybrid methodology of vulnerability analysis is presented, involving elements from both empirical and theoretical methods. A model for correlating analytically calculated structural damage indices to loss (in monetary terms) is also proposed and calibrated against available statistical data. Probability damage matrices derived using this methodology are incorporated into a cost-benefit model tailored to the problem of estimating the feasibility of seismically rehabilitating the existing stock of reinforced concrete buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece. Losses calculated using the suggested procedure are found to be in good agreement with losses incurred during the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake. The results of the present study also indicate that benefit/cost ratios for reinforced concrete buildings are quite low. Hence, it appears that a pre-earthquake strengthening programme is not economically justifiable.

seismic risk scenarios vulnerability assessment damage probability matrices 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. ATC (Applied Technology Council): 1985, Earthquake Damage Evaluation Data for California, Redwood City, CA.Google Scholar
  2. Barbat, A. H. et al.: 1996, Damage scenarios simulation for seismic risk assessment in urban zones, Earthquake Spectra 12(3), 371‐394.Google Scholar
  3. Comerio, M. C.: 1992, Impacts of the Los Angeles retrofit ordinance on residential buildings, Earthq. Spectra 8(1), 79‐94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Dolce, M. et al.: 1995, State of the art Report of W. G. 3-seismic risk and vulnerability, Proc. 10th Europ. Conf. Earthq. Engng. (Vienna, 1994), Balkema: Rotterdam, 4, 3049‐3077.Google Scholar
  5. FEMA(Federal Emergency Management Agency): 1992, A Benefit-Cost Model for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings (FEMA 227), VSP Associates, Sacramento, CA.Google Scholar
  6. Kappos, A. J., Stylianidis, K. C., and Penelis, G. G.: 1991, Analytical prediction of the response of structures to future earthquakes, Europ. Earthq. Eng. 5(1), 10‐21.Google Scholar
  7. Kappos, A. J. et al.: 1992, Development of earthquake damage scenarios using a comprehensive analytical method, 10th World Conf. on Earthq. Engng. (Madrid, 1992), Balkema: Rotterdam, 10, 6013‐6018.Google Scholar
  8. Papazachos, B. C. et al.: 1990, On the reliability of different methods of seismic hazard assessment in Greece, Natural Hazards 3(2), 141‐151.Google Scholar
  9. Penelis, G. G. and Kappos, A. J.: 1997, Earthquake-Resistant Concrete Structures, E. & F. N. Spon, Chapman & Hall, London.Google Scholar
  10. Penelis, G. G. et al.: 1989, A statistical evaluation of damage to buildings in the Thessaloniki, Greece, earthquake of June 20, 1978, Proc. 9th World Conf. on Earthq. Engng. (Tokyo-Kyoto, 1988), Maruzen: Tokyo, VII, 187‐192.Google Scholar
  11. Pitilakis, K.: 1995, Seismic microzonation practice in Greece: A critical review of some important factors, Proc. 10th Europ. Conf. Earthq. Engng. (Vienna, 1994), Balkema: Rotterdam, 4, 2537–2545.Google Scholar
  12. Singhal, A. and Kiremidjian, A. S.: 1996, A method for probabilistic evaluation of seismic structural damage, J. Struct. Engng. ASCE, 122(12), 1459‐1467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. UNDP/UNIDO Project RER/79/015: 1985, Post-Earthquake Damage Evaluation and Strength Assessment of Buildings Under Seismic Conditions, 4, Vienna.Google Scholar
  14. Whitman R. V. et al.: 1974, Earthquake damage probability matrices, Proc. 5th World Conf. on Earthq. Engng. (Rome, 1973), EAEE: Rome, 2, 2531‐2540.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. J. Kappos
    • 1
    • 2
  • K. C. Stylianidis
    • 2
  • K. Pitilakis
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringImperial CollegeLondonU.K.
  2. 2.Department of Civil EngineeringAristotle University of ThessalonikiGreece

Personalised recommendations