Population and Environment

, Volume 22, Issue 4, pp 383–389 | Cite as

“Replacement Migration” from the Perspective of Equilibrium Stationary Populations

  • Thomas J. Espenshade
Article

Abstract

An equilibrium stationary population results whenever a population is projected assuming (constant) below-replacement fertility and annual flow of net migrants whose age-sex composition is also fixed. This framework is useful in interpreting the results in the U.N.'s report on Replacement Migration. It is especially helpful in seeing why the annual volume of immigration must accelerate if the policy goal is to maintain today's relatively youthful age structures. Replacement Migration is largely demographic in nature and ignores a number of potential connections to economics and other social sciences. Had those connections been strengthened, readers might have been more convinced that population aging and population decline are important “problems” that require immigration as a solution.

stationary population optimum population below-replacement fertility immigration population aging age distribution 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

REFERENCES

  1. Coale, A. J. 1964. How a Population Ages or Grows Younger. In Ronald Freedman (Ed.), Population: The vital revolution, pp. 47–58. Garden City, NY: Anchor Books.Google Scholar
  2. Espenshade, T. J., & Serow, W. J. (Eds.) (1978). The economic consequences of slowing population growth. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  3. Espenshade, T. J., Bouvier, L. F., & Arthur, W. B. (1982). Immigration and the Stable Population Model. Demography, 19(1), 125–133.Google Scholar
  4. Olson, E. (2000). Swiss Voters Reject Limit on Number of Foreigners. New York Times, September 25, p. A16.Google Scholar
  5. United Nations (2000). Replacement migration: Is it a solution to declining and ageing populations? New York: UN Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, ESA/P/WP.160, March 21.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Human Sciences Press, Inc. 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Thomas J. Espenshade
    • 1
  1. 1.Office of Population ResearchPrinceton UniversityPrinceton

Personalised recommendations