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An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections: The Example of Austria

  • Wolfgang Lutz
  • Sergei Scherbov
Article

Abstract

The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through high and low variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty these alternative paths are assumed to cover. But probabilistic approaches have not yet found their way into official population projections. This paper proposes an expert-based probabilistic approach that seems to meet important criteria for successful application to national and international projections: 1) it provides significant advantages to current practice, 2) it presents an evolution of current practice rather than a discontinuity, 3) it is scientifically sound, and 4) it is applicable to all countries.

In a recent Nature article (Lutz et al., 1997) this method was applied to 13 world regions. This paper discusses the applicability to national projections by directly taking the alternative assumptions defined by the Austrian Statistical Office. Sensitivity analyses that resolve some methodological questions about the approach are also presented.

Keywords

Sensitivity Analysis Current Practice Public Finance Important Criterion Probabilistic Approach 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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References

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Authors and Affiliations

  • Wolfgang Lutz
    • 1
  • Sergei Scherbov
    • 2
  1. 1.Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)LaxenburgAustria
  2. 2.Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial SciencesUniversity of GroningenGroningenThe Netherlands

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