Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 44, Issue 3, pp 265–289 | Cite as

Scaling Issues in Forest Succession Modelling

  • Harald Bugmann
  • Marcus Lindner
  • Petra Lasch
  • Michael Flechsig
  • Beatrix Ebert
  • Wolfgang Cramer
Article

Abstract

This paper reviews scaling issues in forest succession modelling, focusing on forest gap models. Two modes of scaling are distinguished: (1) implicit scaling, i.e. taking scale-dependent features into account while developing model equations, and (2) explicit scaling, i.e. using procedures that typically involve numerical simulation to scale up the response of a local model in space and/or time. Special attention is paid to spatial upscaling methods, and downscaling is covered with respect to deriving scenarios of climatic change to drive gap models in impact assessments. When examining the equations used to represent ecological processes in forest gap models, it becomes evident that implicit scaling is relevant, but has not always been fully taken into consideration. A categorization from the literature is used to distinguish four methods for explicit upscaling of ecological models in space: (1) Lumping, (2) Direct extrapolation, (3) Extrapolation by expected value, and (4) Explicit integration. Examples from gap model studies are used to elaborate the potential and limitations of these methods, showing that upscaling to areas as large as 3000 km2 is possible, given that there are no significant disturbances such as fires or insect outbreaks at the landscape scale. Regarding temporal upscaling, we find that it is important to consider migrational lags, i.e. limited availability of propagules, if one wants to assess the transient behaviour of forests in a changing climate, specifically with respect to carbon storage and the associated feedbacks to the atmospheric CO2 content. Regarding downscaling, the ecological effects of different climate scenarios for the year 2100 were compared at a range of sites in central Europe. The derivation of the scenarios is based on (1) imposing GCM grid-cell average changes of temperature and precipitation on the local weather records; (2) a qualitative downscaling technique applied by the IPCC for central and southern Europe; and (3) statistical downscaling relating large-scale circulation patterns to local weather records. Widely different forest compositions may be obtained depending on the local climate scenario, suggesting that the downscaling issue is quite important for assessments of the ecological impacts of climatic change on forests.

Keywords

Climate Scenario Upscaling Statistical Downscaling Forest Composition Explicit Integration 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Amthor, J.S.: 1995, ‘Terrestrial higher-plant response to increasing atmospheric [CO2] in relation to the global carbon cycle’, Global Change Biology 1, 243–274.Google Scholar
  2. Arp, P.A. and Oja, T.: 1997, ‘A forest soil vegetation atmosphere model (ForSVA), I: Concepts’, Ecol. Modelling 95, 211–224.Google Scholar
  3. Bonan, G.B. and Sirois, L.: 1992, ‘Air temperature, tree growth, and the northern and southern range limits to Picea mariana’, J. Veg. Sci. 3, 495–506.Google Scholar
  4. Bormann, F.H. and Likens, G.E.: 1979, Pattern and process in a forested ecosystem, Springer, New York a.o., 253 pp.Google Scholar
  5. Botkin, D.B., Janak, J.F. and Wallis, J.R.: 1972, ‘Some ecological consequences of a computer model of forest growth’, J. Ecol. 60, 849–872.Google Scholar
  6. Bray, J.R.: 1956, ‘Gap-phase replacement in a maple-basswood forest’, Ecology 37, 598–600.Google Scholar
  7. Bugmann, H.: 1994, On the ecology of mountainous forests in a changing climate: A simulation study, Ph.D. Thesis no. 10638, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Switzerland, 258 pp.Google Scholar
  8. Bugmann, H.: 1996, ‘A simplified forest model to study species composition along climate gradients’, Ecology 77, 2055–2074.Google Scholar
  9. Bugmann, H.: 1997, ‘Sensitivity of forests in the European Alps to future climatic change’, Clim. Res. 8, 35–44.Google Scholar
  10. Bugmann, H. and Cramer, W.: 1998, ‘Improving the behaviour of forest gap models along drought gradients’, For. Ecol. Manage. 103, 247–263.Google Scholar
  11. Bugmann, H. and Fischlin, A.: 1994, ‘Comparing the behaviour of mountainous forest succession models in a changing climate’, in: Beniston, M. (ed.), Mountain environments in changing climates, Routledge, London, 204–219.Google Scholar
  12. Bugmann, H. and Martin, P.: 1995, ‘How physics and biology matter in forest gap models’, Clim. Change 29, 251–257.Google Scholar
  13. Bugmann, H.K.M. and Solomon, A.M.: 1995, ‘The use of a European forest model in North America: A study of ecosystem response to climate gradients’, J. Biogeogr. 22, 477–484.Google Scholar
  14. Bugmann, H.K.M. and Solomon, A.M.: 1998, ‘Towards a unified gap model for the global temperate forests’, Ecol. Applications, submitted.Google Scholar
  15. Bugmann, H., Fischlin, A. and Kienast, F.: 1996a, ‘Model convergence and state variable update in forest gap models’, Ecol. Modelling 89, 197–208.Google Scholar
  16. Bugmann, H., Yan Xiaodong, Sykes, M.T., Martin, Ph., Lindner, M., Desanker, P.V. & Cumming, S.G.: 1996b, ‘A comparison of forest gap models: Model structure and behaviour’, Clim. Change 34, 289–313.Google Scholar
  17. Bugmann, H., Grote, R., Lasch, P., Lindner, M. and Suckow, F.: 1997, ‘A new forest gap model to study the effects of environmental change on forest structure and functioning’, in: Mohren, G.M.J., Kramer, K. & Sabaté, S. (eds.), Global Change Impacts on Tree Physiology and Forest Ecosystems, Forestry Sciences Vol. 52, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 255–261.Google Scholar
  18. Bürger, G.: 1996, ‘Expanded downscaling for generating local weather scenarios’, Clim. Res. 7, 111–128.Google Scholar
  19. Cubasch, U., Hasselmann, K., Höck, H., Maier-Reimer, E., Mikolajewicz, U., Santer, B. and Sausen, R.: 1992, ‘Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model’, Climate Dynamics 8, 55–69.Google Scholar
  20. Curtis, J.T.: 1959, The vegetation of Wisconsin, Univ. of Wisonsin Press, Madison.Google Scholar
  21. Dickinson, R.E., Henderson-Sellers, A., Kennedy, P.J. and Wilson, M.F.: 1986, Biosphere-at-mosphere transfer scheme (BATS) for the NCAR community climate model, Tech Note TN-275+STR, Natl. Center for Atmos. Res., Boulder, Colo., 69 pp.Google Scholar
  22. Ehleringer, J.R. and Field, C.B.: 1993, Scaling physiological processes: Leaf to globe, Academic Press, San Diego a.o., 388 pp.Google Scholar
  23. Fischlin, A., Bugmann, H. and Gyalistras, D.: 1995, ‘Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes’, Environ. Pollut. 87, 267–282.Google Scholar
  24. Forman, R.T.T. and Godron, M.: 1981, ‘Patches and structural components for a landscape ecology’, Bioscience 31, 733–740.Google Scholar
  25. Friend, A.D., Shugart, H.H. and Running, S.W.: 1993, ‘A physiology-based gap model of forest dynamics’, Ecology 74, 792–797.Google Scholar
  26. Friend, A.D., Stevens, A.K., Knox, R.G. and Cannell, M.G.R.: 1997, ‘A process-based, terrestrial biosphere model of ecosystem dynamics (HYBRID v3.0)’, Ecol. Modelling 95, 249–287.Google Scholar
  27. Grote, R.: 1998, ‘Integrating long-term adaptations into physiological forest growth modeling. II. Allocation and mortality’, For. Ecol. Manage., in press.Google Scholar
  28. Gyalistras, D., Storch, H. von, Fischlin, A. and Beniston, M.: 1994, ‘Linking GCM generated climate scenarios to ecosystems: Case studies of statistical downscaling in the Alps’, Clim. Res. 4, 167–189.Google Scholar
  29. Haxeltine, A. and Prentice, I.C.: 1996, ‘A general model for the light use efficiency of primary production by terrestrial ecosystems’, Functional Ecology 10, 551–561.Google Scholar
  30. Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J. and Ephraums, J.J. (eds.): 1990, Climate change — the IPCC scientific assessment, Report prepared for IPCC by Working Group 1, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge a.o., 365 pp.Google Scholar
  31. Huston, M.A.: 1991, ‘Use of individual-based forest succession models to link physiological whole-tree models to landscape-scale ecosystem models’, Tree Physiol. 9, 293–306.Google Scholar
  32. Kareiva, P. and Andersen, M.: 1988, ‘Spatial aspects of species interactions: The wedding of models and experiments’, in: Hastings, A. (ed.), Community Ecology, Lecture Notes in Biomathematics, Springer Verlag, Berlin, Vol. 77, pp. 35–50.Google Scholar
  33. Keane, R.E., Morgan, P. and Running, S.W.: 1996, FIRE-BGC — A mechanistic ecological process model for simulating fire succession on confierous forest landscapes of the northern Rocky Mountains, USDA Forest Service Research Paper INT-RP-484, 122 pp.Google Scholar
  34. Kienast, F.: 1991, ‘Simulated effects of increasing CO2 on the successional characteristics of Alpine forest ecosystems’, Landscape Ecology 5, 225–238.Google Scholar
  35. King, A.W.: 1991, ‘Translating models across scales in the landscape’, in: Turner, M.G. and Gardner, R.H. (eds.), Quantitative methods in landscape ecology, Ecological Studies, Springer, New York a.o., Vol. 82, pp. 479–517.Google Scholar
  36. King, A.W., Emanuel, W.R. and O'Neill, R.V.: 1990, ‘Linking mechanistic models of tree physiology with models of forest dynamics: problems of temporal scale’, in: Dixon, R.K., Meldahl, R.S., Ruark, G.A. and Warren, W.G. (eds.), Process modeling of forest growth responses to environmental stress, Timber Press, Portland, Oregon, 241–248.Google Scholar
  37. Kirschbaum, M.U.F., Fischlin, A. and Cramer, W.: 1996, ‘Climate change impacts on forests’, in: Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C. and Moss, R.H. (eds.), Climate Change 1995 — Impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: Scientific-technical analyses., Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 95–129.Google Scholar
  38. Körner, C.: 1993, ‘CO2 fertilization: The great uncertainty in future vegetation development’, in: Solomon, A.M. and Shugart, H.H. (eds.), Vegetation dynamics and global change, Chapman and Hall, New York a.o., 53–70.Google Scholar
  39. Körner, C.: 1996, ‘The response of complex multispecies systems to elevated CO2’, in: Walker, B. and Steffen, W. (eds.), Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 20–42.Google Scholar
  40. Kozlowski, T.T., Kramer, P.J. and Pallardy, S.G.: 1991, The physiological ecology of woody plants, Academic Press, San Diego a.o., 657 pp.Google Scholar
  41. Lasch, P. and Lindner, M.: 1995, ‘Application of two forest succession models at sites in north east Germany’, J. Biogeogr. 22, 485–492.Google Scholar
  42. Lindner, M., Bugmann, H., Lasch, P., Flechsig, M. and Cramer, W.: 1997, ‘Regional impacts of climatic change on forests in the state of Brandenburg, Germany’, Agr. For. Met. 84, 123–135.Google Scholar
  43. Lotter, A. and Kienast, F.: 1992, ‘Validation of a forest succession model by means of annually laminated sediments’, in: Saarnisto, M. and Kahra, A. (eds.), Proceedings of the INQUA workshop on laminated sediments, June 4–6, 1990, Lammi, Finland, Geological Survey of Finland, Special paper series 14, 25–31.Google Scholar
  44. Luxmoore, R.J., King, A.W. & Tharp, M.L.: 1991, ‘Approaches to scaling up physiologically based soil-plant models in space and time’, Tree Physiol. 9, 281–292.Google Scholar
  45. Martin, P.: 1992, ‘EXE: A climatically sensitive model to study climate change and CO2 enrichment effects on forests’, Austr. J. Bot. 40, 717–735.Google Scholar
  46. O'Neill, R.V., DeAngelis, D.L., Waide, J.B. and Allen, T.F.H.: 1986, A hierarchical concept of ecosystems, Princeton University Press, Princeton.Google Scholar
  47. Pastor, J. and Post, W.M.: 1985, Development of a linked forest productivity-soil process model, U.S. Dept. of Energy, ORNL/TM-9519.Google Scholar
  48. Pickett, S.T.A. and Cadenasso, M.L.: 1995, ‘Landscape ecology: Spatial heterogeneity in ecological systems’, Science 269, 331–334.Google Scholar
  49. Pielke, R.A., Rodriguez, J.H., Eastman, J.L., Walko, R.L. and Stocker, R.A.: 1993, ‘Influence of albedo variability in complex terrain on mesoscale systems’, J. Climate 6, 1798–1806.Google Scholar
  50. Prentice, I.C., Sykes, M.T. and Cramer, W.: 1993, ‘A simulation model for the transient effects of climate change on forest landscapes’, Ecol. Modelling 65, 51–70.Google Scholar
  51. Schenk, H.J.: 1996, ‘Modeling the effects of temperature on growth and persistence of tree species: A critical review of tree population models’, Ecol. Modelling 92, 1–32.Google Scholar
  52. Shugart, H.H.: 1984, A theory of forest dynamics. The ecological implications of forest succession models, Springer, New York a.o., 278 pp.Google Scholar
  53. Shugart, H.H. and Seagle, S.W.: 1985, ‘Modeling forest landscapes and the role of disturbance in ecosystem communities’, in: Pickett, S.T.A. and White, P.S. (eds.), The ecology of natural disturbance and patch dynamics, Academic Press, Orlando a.o., 252–368.Google Scholar
  54. Shugart, H.H., Leemans, R. and Bonan, G.B.: 1992, ‘A systems analysis of the global boreal forest: Introduction’, in: Shugart, H.H., Leemans, R. and Bonan, G.B. (eds.), A systems analysis of the global boreal forest, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge a.o., 1–8.Google Scholar
  55. Smith, T.M. and Shugart, H.H.: 1993, ‘The transient response of terrestrial carbon storage to a perturbed climate’, Nature 361, 523–526.Google Scholar
  56. Smith, T.M. and Urban, D.L.: 1988, ‘Scale and resolution of forest structural pattern’, Vegetatio 74, 143–150.Google Scholar
  57. Solomon, A.M.: 1986, ‘Transient response of forests to CO2-induced climate change: simulation modeling experiments in eastern North America’, Oecologia 68, 567–579.Google Scholar
  58. Solomon, A.M.: 1997, ‘Natural migration rates of trees: Global terrestrial carbon cycle implications’, in: Huntley, B., Cramer, W., Morgan, A.V., Prentice, H.C. and Allen, J.R.M. (eds.), Past and future rapid environmental changes: The spatial and evolutionary responses of terrestrial biota, Springer, Berlin a.o., 455–468.Google Scholar
  59. Solomon, A.M. and Kirilenko, A.P.: 1997, ‘Climate change and terrestrial biomass: what if trees do not migrate?’, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. Lett. 6, 139–148.Google Scholar
  60. Solomon, A.M. and Webb, T.: 1985, ‘Computer-aided reconstruction of late-quaternary landscape dynamics’, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 16, 63–84.Google Scholar
  61. Solomon, A.M., Tharp, M.L., West, D.C., Taylot, G.E., Webb, J.W. and Trimble, J.L.: 1984, Response of unmanaged forests to CO2-induced climate change: Available information, initial tests and data requirements, DOE/NBB-0053, National Technical Information Service, U.S. Dept. Comm., Springfield, Virginia, 93 pp.Google Scholar
  62. Turner, M.G.: 1989, ‘Landscape ecology: The effect of pattern on process’, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 20, 171–197.Google Scholar
  63. Turner, M.G., Romme, W.H., Gardner, R.H., O'Neill R.V. and Kratz, T.K.: 1993, ‘A revised concept of landscape equilibrium: Disturbance and stability on scaled landscapes’, Landscape Ecol. 8, 213–227.Google Scholar
  64. Urban, D.L., O'Neill, R.V. and Shugart, H.H.: 1987, ‘Landscape ecology’, Bioscience 37, 119–127.Google Scholar
  65. Watt, A.S.: 1947, ‘Pattern and process in the plant community’, J. Ecol. 35, 1–22.Google Scholar
  66. Werner, P.C. and Gerstengarbe, F.-W.: 1997, ‘Proposal for the development of climate scenarios’, Clim. Res. 8, 171–182.Google Scholar
  67. Wild, M., Dümenil, L. and Schulz, J.-P.: 1996, ‘Regional climate simulation with a high resolution GCM: surface hydrology’, Climate Dynamics 12, 755–774.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • Harald Bugmann
    • 1
  • Marcus Lindner
    • 1
  • Petra Lasch
    • 1
  • Michael Flechsig
    • 1
  • Beatrix Ebert
    • 1
  • Wolfgang Cramer
    • 1
  1. 1.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)PotsdamGermany

Personalised recommendations