Climatic Change

, Volume 43, Issue 1, pp 5–53 | Cite as

Climatic Variability in Sixteenth-Century Europe and its Social Dimension: A Synthesis

  • Christian Pfister
  • Rudolf Brázdil


The introductory paper to this special issue of Climatic Change summarizes the results of an array of studies dealing with the reconstruction of climatic trends and anomalies in sixteenth-century Europe and their impact on the natural and the social world. Areas discussed include glacier expansion in the Alps, the frequency of natural hazards (floods in central and southern Europe and storms on the Dutch North Sea coast), the impact of climate deterioration on grain prices and wine production, and finally, witch-hunts.

The documentary data used for the reconstruction of seasonal and annual precipitation and temperatures in central Europe (Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic) include narrative sources, several types of proxy data and 32 weather diaries. Results were compared with long-term composite tree ring series and tested statistically by cross-correlating series of indices based on documentary data from the sixteenth century with those of simulated indices based on instrumental series (1901-1960). It was shown that series of indices can be taken as good substitutes for instrumental measurements.

A corresponding set of weighted seasonal and annual series of temperature and precipitation indices for central Europe was computed from series of temperature and precipitation indices for Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic, the weights being in proportion to the area of each country. The series of central European indices were then used to assess temperature and precipitation anomalies for the 1901-1960 period using transfer functions obtained from instrumental records. The statistical analysis of these series of estimated temperature and precipitation anomalies yielded features which are similar to those obtained from instrumental series.

Results show that winter temperatures remained below the 1901-1960 average except in the 1520s and 1550s. Springs fluctuated from 0.3°C to 0.8°C below this average. Summer climate was divided into three periods of almost equal length. The first was characterized by an alternation of cool and warmer seasons. The second interval was 0.3°C warmer and between 5 and 6% drier than in the 1901–1960 period. It is emphasized that this warm period included several cold extremes in contrast to the recent period of warming. Summers from 1560 were 0.4°C colder and 4% more humid. Autumns were 0.7°C colder in the 1510s and 20% wetter in the 1570s. The deterioration of summer climate in the late sixteenth century initiated a second period of enlarged glaciers in this millennium (the first having been in the fourteenth century) which did not end until the late nineteenth century.

An analysis of forcing factors (solar, volcanic, ENSO, greenhouse) points only to some volcanic forcing. In order to understand circulation patterns in the sixteenth century in terms of synoptic climatology, proxy information was mapped for a number of anomalous months. Attempts to compare circulation patterns in the sixteenth century with twentieth-century analogues revealed that despite broad agreements in pressure patterns, winters with distinct northeasterly patterns were more frequent in the sixteenth century, whereas the declining summer temperatures from the mid-1560s seem to be associated with a decreasing frequency of anticyclonic ridging from the Azores' center of action towards continental Europe. The number of severe storms on the Dutch North Sea coast was four times greater in the second half of the century than in the first. A more or less continuous increase in the number of floods over the entire century occurred in Germany and the Czech lands. The Iberian peninsula and the Garonne basin (France) had the greatest number of severe floods in the 1590s.

The analysis of the effects of climate on rye prices in four German towns involved a model that included monthly temperatures and precipitation values known to affect grain production. The correlation with rye prices was found significant for the entire century and reached its highest values between 1565 and 1600. From the 1580s to the turn of the century wine production slumped almost simultaneously in four regions over a distance of 800 kilometers (Lake Zurich to western Hungary). This had far-reaching consequences for the Habsburg treasury and promoted a temporary shift in drinking habits from wine to beer. Peasant communities which were suffering large collective damage from the effects of climatic change pressed authorities for the organization of witch-hunts. Seemingly most witches were burnt as scapegoats of climatic change.


Precipitation Anomaly Sixteenth Century Precipitation Index Wine Production Summer Climate 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Abel, W.: 1978, Agrarkrisen and Agrarkonjunktur. Eine Geschichte der Land-und Ernährungswirtschaft Mitteleuropas seit dem Hohen Mittelalter, 3rd ed., Parey, Hamburg.Google Scholar
  2. Barriendos, M. and Martín-Vide, J.: 1998, ‘Secular Climatic Oscillations by Catastrophic Floods in the Spanish Mediterranean Coastal Area (14th-19th Centuries)’, Clim. Change 38, 473-491Google Scholar
  3. Bauernfeind, W. and Woitek, U.: 1999, ‘The Influence of Climatic Change on Price Fluctuations in Germany during the 16th Century Price Revolution’, this volume.Google Scholar
  4. Beer, J., Baumgartner, S., Dittrich-Hannen, B., Hauenstein, J., Kubik, P., Lukasczyk, C., Mende, W., Stellmacher, R., and Suter, M.: 1994a, ‘Solar variability traced by cosmogenic isotopes’, in Pap, J. M., Fröhlich, C., Hudson, H. S., and Solanki, S. K. (eds.), The Sun as a Variable Star: Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variations, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 291-300.Google Scholar
  5. Beer, J., Joos, F., Lukasczyk, C., Mende, W., Rodriguez, J., Siegenthaler, U., and Stellmacher, R.: 1994b, ‘10Be as an indicator of solar variability and climate’, in Nesme-Ribes, E. (ed.), The Solar Engine and Its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 221-233.Google Scholar
  6. Beer, J., Mende, W., Stellmacher, R., and White, O. R.: 1996, ‘Intercomparisons of proxies for past solar variability’, in Jones, P. D., Bradley, R. S., and Jouzel, J. (eds.), Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 501-517.Google Scholar
  7. Behringer, W.: 1999, ‘Climatic Change and Witch-Hunting: The Impact of the Little Ice Age on Mentalities’, this volume.Google Scholar
  8. Bernhardt, K. and Mäder, C.: 1987, ‘Statistische Auswertung von Berichten über bemerkenswerte Witterungsereignisse seit dem Jahre 1000', Z.Meteorol. 37, 120-130.Google Scholar
  9. Blackman, R. B. and Tukey, J. W.: 1958, The Measurement of Power Spectra, Dover Publications, New York.Google Scholar
  10. Blunier, T., Chappellaz, J. A., Schwander, J., Barnola, J. M., Desperts, T., Stauffer, B., and Raynaud, D.: 1993, ‘Atmospheric methane, record from a Greenland ice core over the last 1000 years’, Geoph.Res.Lett. 20, 2219-2222.Google Scholar
  11. Borisenkov, Y. P. (ed.): 1988, Kolebaniya klimata za posledneye tysyatcheletiye, Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad.Google Scholar
  12. Borisenkov, Y. P.: 1992, ‘Documentary evidence from the U.S.S.R.’, in Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.), Climate Since A.D.1500, Routledge, London, pp. 171-183.Google Scholar
  13. Borisenkov, Y. P. and Pasetskiy, V. M.: 1988, Tysyatcheletnaya letopis neobytchaynykh yavleniy prirody, Mysl, Moskva.Google Scholar
  14. Bradley, R. S.: 1988, ‘The explosive volcanic eruption signal in northern hemisphere continental temperature records’, Clim.Change 12, 221-243.Google Scholar
  15. Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D.: 1992, ‘Records of explosive volcanic eruptions over the last 500 years’, in Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.), Climate Since A.D.1500, Routledge, London, pp. 606-622.Google Scholar
  16. Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D.: 1993, ‘Little Ice Age summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends’, The Holocene 3 , 387-396.Google Scholar
  17. Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds. ): 1995, Climate Since A.D.1500, Routledge, London.Google Scholar
  18. Braudel, F.: 1972, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Phillip II (translation of the revised 1966 French edition [orig. edition 1949]: La Méditerranée et le monde mediterraneen au temps de Philippe II), Academic Press, New York.Google Scholar
  19. Brázdil, R.: 1986, Variation of atmospheric precipitation in the C.S.S.R.with respect to precipitation changes in the European region, Univerzita J. E. Purkyně, Brno.Google Scholar
  20. Brázdil, R.: 1992a, ‘Climatic conditions of the Little Ice Age in Bohemia’, in Mikami, T. (ed.), Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Little Ice Age Climate, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, pp. 214-220.Google Scholar
  21. Brázdil, R.: 1992b, ‘Fluctuation of atmospheric precipitation in Europe’, GeoJournal 27, 275-291.Google Scholar
  22. Brázdil, R.: 1996, ‘Reconstructions of past climate from historical sources in the Czech Lands’, in Jones, P. D., Bradley, R. S., and Jouzel, J. (eds.), Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 409–431.Google Scholar
  23. Brázdil, R. and Bit, M.: 1998, ‘ENSO and its effects in the means fields of air pressure, air temperature and precipitation in Europe in the 20th century’, in Nkemdirim, L. (ed.), El Niño and its Global Impacts, submitted.Google Scholar
  24. Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., and Kotyza, O.: 1996, ‘Climate fluctuations in Czech Lands during the 16th century in the central European context’, Zeszyly Naukowe Uniwersytetu Jagiellonskiego MCLXXXVI, 497-502.Google Scholar
  25. Brázdil, R., Glaser, R., Pfister, C., Dobrovolný, P., Antoine, J. M., Barriendos, M., Camuffo, D., Deutsch, M., Enzi, S., Guidoboni, E., Kotyza, O., and Rodrigo, F. S.: ‘Flood Events in Selected European Rivers in the Sixteenth Century’, this volume.Google Scholar
  26. Brázdil, R., Kotyza., O., and Dobrovolny, P.: 1999, History of Weather and Climate in the Czech Lands V Period 1500-1599, Masaryk University, Brno.Google Scholar
  27. Brázdil, R. and Zolotokrylin, A. N.: 1995, ‘The QBO signal in monthly precipitation fields over Europe’, Theor.Appl.Clirnatol. 51, 3-12.Google Scholar
  28. Briffa, K. R.: 1992, ‘Dendroclimatological reconstructions in northern Fennoscandia’, in Mikami, T. (ed.), Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Little Ice Age Climate, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, pp. 5-10.Google Scholar
  29. Briffa, K. R and Schweingruber, F. H.: 1992, ‘Recent dendroclimatic evidence of northern and central European summer temperatures, in Bradley R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.), Climate Since A.D.1500, Routledge, London, pp. 366-392.Google Scholar
  30. Briffa, K. R., Bartholin, T. S., Eckstein, D., Jones, P. D., Karlén, W., Schweingruber, F. H., and Zetterberg, P.: 1990, ‘A 1,400-year tree ring record of summer temperatures in Fennoscandia’, Nature 346, 434–439.Google Scholar
  31. Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., Schweingruber, F. H. and Osbom, T. J.: 1998, ‘Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years’, Nature 393, 450–455.Google Scholar
  32. Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., Vogel, R. B., Schweingmber, F. H., Baillie, M. G. L., Shiyatov, S. G., and Vaganov, E. A.: ‘European Tree Rings and Climate in the Sixteenth Century’, this volume.Google Scholar
  33. Broecker, W., Peteet, D., and Rind, D.: 1985, ‘Does the ocean atmosphere have more than one stable mode of operation?’, Nature 315, 21-26.Google Scholar
  34. Burkhardt, T. and Hense, A.: 1985, ‘On the reconstruction of temperature records from proxy data in Mid-Europe’, Arch . Met. Geoph. Biocl. B 35 , 341-359.Google Scholar
  35. Camuffo, D. and Enzi, S.: 1992, ‘Reconstructing the climate of northern Italy from archive sources’, in Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.), Climate Since A.D.1500, Routledge, London, pp. 143-154.Google Scholar
  36. Cress, A. and Schönwiese, C.-D.: 1990, Vulkanische Einflüsse auf die Bodennahe und stratosphärische Lufttemperatur der Erde, Berichte des Instituts für Meteorologic and Geophysik, vol. 82, Frankfurt am Main.Google Scholar
  37. De Kraker, A.: 1998, ‘A Method to Assess the Impact of High Tides, Storms and Storm Surges as Vital Elements in Climate History: The Case of Stormy Weather and Dikes in the Northern Part of Flanders, 1488 to 1609’, this volume.Google Scholar
  38. Delworth, T. L., Manabe, S., and Stouffer, R. J.: 1993'Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model’, J. Climate 6 , 1993-2011.Google Scholar
  39. Delworth, T. L., Manabe, S., and Stouffer, R. J.: 1997, ‘Multidecadal climate variability in the Greenland Sea and surrounding regions: a coupled model simulation’, Geophys.Res.Lett. 24, 257-260.Google Scholar
  40. De Vries, J.: 1981, ‘Measuring the Impact of Climate on History: the Search for Appropriate Methodologies’, in Rotberg, R. I. and Rabb, T. K. (eds.), Climate and History.Studies in Interdisciplinary History, Princeton University Press, Princeton, pp. 19-50.Google Scholar
  41. Diaz, H. F. and Markgraf, V. (eds.): 1992, El Niño.Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
  42. Dipper, C.: 1991, Deutsche Geschichte 1648-1789, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt am Main.Google Scholar
  43. Fraedrich, K.: 1994, ‘An ENSO impact on Europe? A review’, Tellus 46A, 541-552.Google Scholar
  44. Galloway, P. R.: 1994, ‘Secular changes in the short term preventive, positive and temperature check to population growth in Europe, 1460 to 1909’, Clim. Change 26 , 3-63.Google Scholar
  45. Glantz, M. H.: 1996, Currents of Change: El Niños Impact on Climate and Society, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
  46. Glantz, M. II., Katz, R. W., and Nicholls, N.: 1991, Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies.Scientific Basis and Societal Impact, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
  47. Glaser, R.: 1991, Klimarekonstruktion für Mainfranken, Bauland und Odenwald anhand direkter und indirekter Witterungsdaten seit 1500, Gustav Fischer Verlag, Stuttgart.Google Scholar
  48. Glaser, R.: 1995, ‘Thermische Klimaentwicklung in Mitteleuropa seit dem Jahr 1000’, Geowissenschaften 13, pp. 302-313.Google Scholar
  49. Glaser, R.: 1997, ‘On the course of temperature in central Europe since the year 1000 A.D.’, Historical Social Research 22, 59-87.Google Scholar
  50. Glaser, R., Brázdil, R, Poster, C., Dobrovolný, P., Barriendos, M., Bokwa, A., Camuflo, D., Kotyza, O., Limanówka, D., Rácz, L., and Rodrigo, F. S.: ‘Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Fluctuations in Selected Parts of Europe During the Sixteenth Century’, this volume.Google Scholar
  51. Gordon, A. I., Zebiak, S. E., and Bryan, K.: 1992, ‘Climate variability and the Atlantic Ocean’, EOS 73, 161-165.Google Scholar
  52. Gore, A.: 1992, Earth in the Balance, Houghton Mifflin, Boston.Google Scholar
  53. Grove, J. M.: 1988, The Little Ice Age, Routledge, London.Google Scholar
  54. Grove, J. M.: 1998, ‘The Initiation of the Little Ice Age in Regions round the North Atlantic’, Clim.Change, submitted.Google Scholar
  55. Grove, J. M. and Conterio, A.: 1995, ‘The Climate of Crete in the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries’, Clim. Change 30, 223-247.Google Scholar
  56. Guerreau, A.: 1995, ‘Climat et Vendanges: Revisions et complements’, Histoire et Mesure X/2 , 89-147.Google Scholar
  57. Guiot, J.: 1992, ‘The combination of historical documents and biological data in the reconstruction of climate variations in space and time’, in Frenzel, B., Pfister, C., and Glaser, B. (eds.), European Climate Reconstructed from Documentary Data: Methods and Results, Palaeoclimate Research, vol. 7, special issue no. 2: European Palaeoclimate and Man, Gustav Fischer Verlag, Stuttgart, pp. 93-104.Google Scholar
  58. Hammer, C. U., Clausen, H. B., and Dansgaard, W.: 1980, ‘Greenland ice sheet evidence of post–glacial volcanisms and its climatic impact’, Nature 288 , 230-235.Google Scholar
  59. Heino, R., Brázdil, R., Forland, E., Tuomenvirta, H., Alexandersson, H., Beniston, M., Pfister, C., Rebetez, M., Rosenhagen, G., Rösner, S., and Wibig, J.: 1998, ‘Progress in the study of climatic extremes in Northern and Central Europe’, Clim. Change, accepted.Google Scholar
  60. Hennig, R.: 1904, Katalog bemerkenswerter Witterungsereignisse von den ältesten Zeiten bis zum Jahre 1800, Abh. Königl. Preuss. Meteorol. Inst., vol. 2, Berlin.Google Scholar
  61. Hennig, F. W.: 1991, Handbuch der Wirtschafts-and Sozialgeschichte Deutschlands, vol. I, Schöningh, Padeaborn.Google Scholar
  62. Holzhauser, H. and Zumböhl, H. J.: ‘Alpine Glaciers in the Western Swiss Alps in the Sixteenth Century’, this volumeGoogle Scholar
  63. Hoskins, W. G.: 1968, ‘Harvest fluctuations and English economic history 1620-1759’, Agricultural History Review 68, 15-31.Google Scholar
  64. Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.): 1996, Climate Change 1995.The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
  65. Hurrell, J. W.: 1995, ‘Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation regional temperatures and precipitation’, Science 269, 676-679.Google Scholar
  66. Hurrell, J. W. 1996, ‘Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature’, Geophys.Res.Lett. 23, 665-668.Google Scholar
  67. Hurrell, J. W. and van Loon, H.: 1997, ‘Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation’, Clim.Change 36, 301-326.Google Scholar
  68. Ikeda, M.: 1990, ‘Decadal oscillation of the air-ice-ocean system in the Northern Hemisphere’, Atmos.-Ocean 31, 106-139.Google Scholar
  69. Jacobeit, J., Wanner, H., Koslowski, G., and Gudd, M.: ‘European Surface Pressure Patterns for Months with Outstanding Climate Anomalies During the Sixteenth Century'’, this volume.Google Scholar
  70. Körner, M.: 1993, ‘Geschichte und Zoologie interdisziplinar: Feld-und Schermause in Solothurn 1538-1543’, Jahrbuch f.Solothurnische Geschichte 66, 441-454.Google Scholar
  71. Koslowski, G.: 1989, ‘Die flächenbezogene Eisvolumensumme, eine neue Masszahl für die Bewertung des Liswinters an der Ostseekuste Schleswig-Holsteins und ihr Zusammenhang mit dem Charakter des meteorologischen Winters’, Dt Hydrolog.Z. 42, 61-80.Google Scholar
  72. Koslowski, G. and Glaser, R.: 1995, ‘Reconstruction of the ice winter severity since 1701 in the Western Baltic’, Clim.Change 31, 79-98.Google Scholar
  73. Koslowski, G. and Glaser, R.: 1999, ‘Variations in reconstructed ice winter severity in the Western Baltic from 1501 to 1995, and their implications for the North Atlantic Oscillation’, Clim.Change 41, 175-191.Google Scholar
  74. Kuhn, B. F.: 1787, ‘Versuch über den Mechanismus der Gletscher’, Hopfners Magazin 1, 119–136.Google Scholar
  75. Kushnir, Y.: 1994, ‘Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions’, J. Climate 7, 142-157.Google Scholar
  76. Labrousse, E., Léon, P., Goubert, P., Bouvier, J., Carrière, C., and Harsin, P.: 1970, Histoire Economique et Sociale de la France, Tome 2: Des derniers temps de l'âge seigneurial aux préludes de l'âge industriel (1660-1789), Presses Universitaires de France, Paris.Google Scholar
  77. Lamb, H. H.: 1977, Climate: Present, Past and Future, Vol.2: Climatic history and the future, Methuen, London.Google Scholar
  78. Lamb, H. H.: 1982, Climate, History and the Modern World, Methuen, London.Google Scholar
  79. Lamb, H. H.: 1984, ‘Climate in the last thousand years: natural climatic fluctuations and change’, in Flohn, H. and Fantechi, R. (eds.), The Climate of Europe: Past, Present and Future, D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, pp. 25-64.Google Scholar
  80. Lamb, H. H.: 1985, ‘The Little Ice Age period and the great storms within it’, in Tooley, M. J. and Sheail, G. M. (eds.), The climatic scene.Essays in honor of Gordon Manley, Allen & Unwin, London, pp. 104-131.Google Scholar
  81. Lamb, H. H.: 1988, Weather, Climate and Human Affairs: A book of Essays and Other Papers, Routledge, London.Google Scholar
  82. Landsteiner, E.: ‘The Crisis of Wine Production in Late Sixteenth-Century Europe: Climatic Causes and Economic Effects’, this volume.Google Scholar
  83. Lauer, W. and Frankenberg, P.: 1986, Zur Reconstruction des Klimas im Bereich der Rheinpfalz seit Mitte des 16.Jahrhunderis mit Hiffe von Zeitreihen der Weinquantität und Weinqualität, Gustav Fischer Verlag, Stuttgart.Google Scholar
  84. Lauscher, F.: 1985, ‘Beitrage zur Wetterchronik seit dem Mittelalter’, Siizungsberichte der mathem.-naturw Kl.-Abt.II 94, 93-131.Google Scholar
  85. Lean, J., Beer, J., and Bradley, R. S.: 1995, ‘Reconstruction of solar uradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change’, Geophys.Res.Lett. 22, 3195-3198.Google Scholar
  86. Lehmann, H.: 1986, ‘Frömmigkeitsgeschichtliche Auswirkungen der “Kleinen Eiszeit”’, in Schieder, W. (ed.), Volksreligiosität in der modernen Sozialgeschichte, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, Göttingen, pp. 31-50.Google Scholar
  87. Lenke, W.: 1968, ‘Das Klima Ende des 16. und Anfang des 17. Jahrhunderts nach Beobachtungen von Tycho Brahe auf Hven, Leonhard 111. Treuttwein in Fürstenfeld und David Fabricius in Ostfriesland’, Berichte des Deutschen Wetterdienstes 15 , Offenbach am Main.Google Scholar
  88. Le Roy Ladurie, E.: 1971, Times of feast, Times of famine.A history of climate since the year 1000 (translation of the original 1967 French edition: L'histoire du climat depuis l'an mil, Paris, translated by Barbara Bray), Doubleday & Company, New York City.Google Scholar
  89. Le Roy Ladurie, E. and Baulant, M.: 1980, ‘Grape harvests from the fifteenth through the nineteenth centuries’, J. Interd.Hist. 10, 839-849.Google Scholar
  90. Luterbacher, J., Rickli, R. et al.: 1999, ‘The Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715)-A Key Period for Studying Decadal Scale Climate Change in Europe’, Clim.Change, submitted.Google Scholar
  91. Lyakhov, M. Y.: 1984, ‘Khmatitcheskiye ekstremumy v tsentralnoy tchasti yevropeyskoy territorii SSSR v XIII-XX vv.', Izv.AN SSSR-ser.geogr. 6, 68-74.Google Scholar
  92. Lyakhov, M. Y.: 1987, ‘Gody s ekstremalnymi klimatitcheskimi usloviyami’, Materialy meteorol.issled. 13, 119-177.Google Scholar
  93. Lyakhov, M. Y.: 1988, ‘Kolebaniya klimata na yevropeyskoy territorii SSSR’, Materialy meteorol.issled. 14, 90-98.Google Scholar
  94. Malberg, H. and Bökens, G.: 1997, ‘Die Winter-und Sommertemperaturen in Berlin seit 1.929 und ihr Zusammenhang mit der Nordatlantischen Oszillation (NAO)’, Meteorol.Zeitschrift (NeueFolge) 6, 230-234.Google Scholar
  95. Mann, M. E., Bradley, R. S., and Hughes, M. K.: 1998, ‘Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries’, Nature 392, 779-787.Google Scholar
  96. Martin-Vide, J. and Barriendos, M.: 1995, ‘The Use of Rogation Ceremony Records in Climatic Reconstruction: A Case Study from Catalonia (Spain)’, Clim.Change 30, 201-221.Google Scholar
  97. Mathis, F.: 1992, Die deutsche Wirtsehaft im 16.Jahrhundert, Oldenburg, Munich.Google Scholar
  98. May, W. and Bengtsson, L.: 1996, ‘On the Impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon on the Atmospheric Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics’, Max–Planck Institut f. Meteorologie Report 224.Google Scholar
  99. Mieck, L: 1993, ‘Eiuleitung: Der zeitliche Rahmen. Zum Charakter der Epoche’, in Mieck, I. (ed.), Europaische Wirtschafts-und Sozialgeschichte von der Mitte des 17.Jahrhunders bis zur Mitte des 19.Jahrhunderts, vol. 4 of Fischer, W., Van Houtte, J. A., Kellenbenz, H., Mieck, I., and Vittinghoff; F. (eds.), Handbuch der europäischen Wirtschafts-und Sozialgeschichte, Klett-Cotta, Stuttgart, pp. 8-11.Google Scholar
  100. Mikami, T. (ed.): 1992, Proceedings of the International Symposium on the Little Ice Age Climate, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo.Google Scholar
  101. Millman, S. and Kates, R. W.: 1990, ‘Toward Understanding Hunger’, in Newman, L. F. (ed.): Hunger in History.Food Shortage, Poverty and Deprivation, Blackwell, Cambridge, pp. 3-24.Google Scholar
  102. Nesme-Ribes, E., Ferreira, E. N., Sadouruy, R., Le Trent, H., and Li, Z. X.: 1993, ‘Solar dynamics and its impact on solar irradiance and the terrestrial climate’, J.Geophys.Res. 98, 18,923–18,935.Google Scholar
  103. O'Brien, S. R., Mayewski, P. A., Meeker, L. D., Meese, D. A., Twickler, M. S., and Whitlow, S. 1.: 1995, ‘Complexity of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland Ice Core’, Science 270, 1962-1964.Google Scholar
  104. Ogilvie, A. E. J.: 1984, ‘The past climate and sea-ice record from Iceland, part 1. Data to A.D. 1780’, Clim. Change 6, 131-152.Google Scholar
  105. Ogilvie, A. E. J.: 1991, ‘Climatic changes in Iceland A.D. c. 865 to 1598’, Acta Archaeologica 61, 233-251.Google Scholar
  106. Ogilvie, A. E. J.: 1992, ‘Documentary evidence for changes in the climate of Iceland, A.D. 1500 to 1800’, in Bradley R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.), Climate Since A.D.1500, Routledge, London, pp. 92-117.Google Scholar
  107. Ogilvie, A. E. J.: 1996, ‘Sea Ice conditions off the coast of Iceland A.D. 1601-1850 with special reference to part of the Late Maunder Minimum period 1675-1715’, Am.S.Varia 25 (Archaeological Museum Stavanger, Norway), 9-12.Google Scholar
  108. Ogilvie, A. E. J. and Jonsdottir, I.: 1996, ‘Sea-ice incidence off the coast of Iceland: Evidence from historical data and early sea-ice maps’, in 26th International Arctic Workshop, Arctic and Alpine Environments, Past and Present, Program with Abstracts, INSTAAR, Boulder, Colorado, 14-16 March 1996, pp. 109-110.Google Scholar
  109. Peng, S. and Mysak, L. A.: 1993, ‘A teleconnection study of interannual sea surface temperature fluctuations in the North Atlantic and precipitation and runoff over western Siberia'’, J. Climate 6, 876-885.Google Scholar
  110. Pfister, C.: 1980, ‘The Little Ice Age: Thermal and Wetness Indices for Central Europe’, J.Interd. History 10, 665-696.Google Scholar
  111. Pfister, C.: 1988a, Klimageschichte der Schweiz 1525-1860.Das Klima der Schweiz and seine Bedeutung in der Geschichte von Bevölkerung and Landwirtschaft, 2 vols., Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern.Google Scholar
  112. Pfister, C.: 1988b, ‘Variations in the spring-summer climate of central Europe from the High Middle Ages to 1850’, in Wanner, H. and Siegenthaler, U. (eds.), Long and Short Term Variability of Climate, Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 57-82.Google Scholar
  113. Pfister, C.: 1992, ‘Monthly temperature and precipitation in central Europe 1525-1979: quantifying documentary evidence on weather and its effects’, in Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.), Climate Since A.D.1500, Routledge, London, pp. 118-142.Google Scholar
  114. Pfister, C.: 1995, ‘The Population of Late Medieval and Early Modem Germany’, in Scribner, B. (ed.): Germany. A new Social and Economic History 1450-1630, Arnold, London, pp. 33-64.Google Scholar
  115. Pfister, C.: 1999, Wetternachhersage.500 Jahre Klimavariationen and Naturkatastrophen (1496–1995), Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern.Google Scholar
  116. Pfister, C., Schwarz-Zanetti, G., Hochstrasser, F. and Wegmann, M.: 1996, ‘Winter Severity in Europe: The Fourteenth Century’, Clim.Change 34, 91-108.Google Scholar
  117. Pfister, C., Brázdil, R., Glaser, R., Barriendos, M., Camulfo, D., Deutsch, M., Dobrovolný, P., Enzi, S., Guidoboni, E., Kotyza, O., Militzer, S., Rácz, L., and Rodrigo, F. S. [1]: ‘Documentary Evidence on Climate in Sixteenth-Century Europe’, this volume.Google Scholar
  118. Pfister, C., Brázdil, R., Glaser, R., Bokwa, A., Holawe, F., Limanowka, D., Kotyza, O., Munzar, J., Rácz, L., Strömmer, E., Schwarz-Zanetti, G. [2]: ‘Daily Weather Observations in Sixteenth–Century Europe’, this volume.Google Scholar
  119. Philander, S. G.: 1990, El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, Academic Press, San Diego.Google Scholar
  120. Porter, S. C.: 1986, ‘Pattern and Forcing of Northern Hemisphere Glacier Variations during the Last Millennium’, QuarternaryResearch 28, 27–48.Google Scholar
  121. Quinn, W. H.: 1993, ‘The large-scale ENSO event, the El Nifio and other important regional features’, Bull . Inst. fr.études andines 22, 13-34.Google Scholar
  122. Quinn, W. H. and Neal, V. T.: 1992, ‘The historical record of El Niño events’, in Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.), Climate Since A.D.1500, Routledge, London, pp. 623-648.Google Scholar
  123. Racz, L.: 1992, ‘Variations of Climate in Hungary (1540-1779)’, in Frenzel, B., Pfister, C., and Glaser, B. (eds.), European Climate Reconstructed from Documentary Data, Methods and Results, Palaeoctimate Research, vol. 7, special issue no. 2 European Palaeoclimate and Man, Gustav Fischer Verlag, Stuttgart, pp. 125-136.Google Scholar
  124. Raynaud, D., Bamola, J. M., Chappellaz, J., and Martinerie, P.: 1996, ‘Changes in trace gas concentrations during the last 2,000 years and more generally the Holocene’, in Jones, P. D., Bradley, R. S. and Jouzel, J. (eds.), Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 547-561.Google Scholar
  125. Repapis, C. C., Schuurmans, C. J. E., Zerefos, C. S. and Ziomas, J.: 1989, ‘A Note on the Frequency of Occurrence of Severe Winters as Evidenced in Monastery and Historical Records from Greece During the Period 1200-1900 A.D.’, Theor.Appl.Climatol. 39, 213-217.Google Scholar
  126. Rind, D.: 1996, ‘The potential for modeling the effects of different forcing factors on climate during the past 2000 years’, in Jones, P. D., Bradley, R. S. and Jouzel, J. (eds.), Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 563–581.Google Scholar
  127. Rind, D. and Lean, J.: 1994, ‘Solar variability: implications for global change’, Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 75, 1 and 5-7.Google Scholar
  128. Rind, D. and Overpeck, J.: 1994,’ Hypothesized causes of decade-to-century-scale climate variability: climate model results’, Quaternary Science Reviews 12, 357-374.Google Scholar
  129. Robock, A. and Free, M. P.: 1996, ‘The volcanic record in ice cores for the past 2000 years’, in Jones, P. D., Bradley, R. S. and Jouzel, J. (eds.), Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 533-546.Google Scholar
  130. Rodrigo, F. S., Esteban-Parra, M. J., and Castro-Diez, Y.: 1995, ‘The Onset of the Little Ice Age in Andalusia (Southern Spain), Detection and Characterization from Documentary Sources’, Annales Geophysicae 13, 330-338.Google Scholar
  131. Sadowski, M.: 1991, ‘Variability of extreme climatic events in Central Europe since the 13th century’, Z.Meteorol. 41, 350-356.Google Scholar
  132. Schmid, J. (ed).: 1969, Renward Cysat.Collectanea pro Chronica Lucernensi et Helvetiae, 1st part, Diebold Schilling Verlag, Luzern.Google Scholar
  133. Schönwiese, C.-D.: 1988, ‘Volcanic activity parameters and volcanism-climate relationships within recent centuries’, Atmosfera 1, 141-156.Google Scholar
  134. Schönwiese, C.-D., Malcher, J., and Hartmann, C.: 1986, Globale Statistik langer Temperatur– und Niederschlagsreihen, Berichte des Instituts für Meteorologic und Geophysik der Universität Frankfurt/Main, Nr. 65, Frankfurt am Main.Google Scholar
  135. Schönwiese, C.-D., Ullrich, R., and Beck, F.: 1992, Solare Einflüsse auf die Lufttemperaturvariationen der Erde in den letzten Jahrhunderten, Berichte des Instituts für Meteorologic und Geophysik der Universität Frankfurt/Main, Nr. 92, Frankfurt am Main.Google Scholar
  136. Serre-Bachet, F., Guiot, J., and Tessier, L.: 1992, ‘Dendroclimatic evidence from southwestern Europe and northwestern Africa’, in Bradley R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.), Climate Since A.D.1500, Routledge, London, pp. 349-365.Google Scholar
  137. Siegenthaler, U. and Sarmiento, J. L.: 1993, ‘Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the ocean’, Nature 365, 119-125.Google Scholar
  138. Slither van Bath, B. H.: 1963, The Agrarian History of Western Europe A.D.500-1850 (translation of the original 1963 Dutch edition: De agrarische geschiedenis-van West-Europa [500-1850], translated by Olive Ordish), Edward Arnold Ltd., London.Google Scholar
  139. Utterström, G.: 1955, ‘Climatic fluctuations and Population problems in Early Modem History’, Scandinavian Economic History Review 3, 3-47.Google Scholar
  140. Van Loon, H. and Rogers, J. C.: 1978, ‘The seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and northern Europe. Part I: General description’, Mon.Wea.Rev. 106, 296-310.Google Scholar
  141. Wilby, R. L., O'Hare, G., and Barnsley, N.: 1997, ‘The North Atlantic Oscillation and British Isles climate variability, 1865-1996’, Weather 52, 266-276.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Authors and Affiliations

  • Christian Pfister
    • 1
  • Rudolf Brázdil
    • 2
  1. 1.Institute of HistoryUniversity of BernBern 9Switzerland
  2. 2.Department of GeographyMasaryk UniversityBrnoCzech Republic

Personalised recommendations