Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Effects of Climate Change on Rice Production in the Tropical Humid Climate of Kerala, India

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The CERES-Rice v3. crop simulation model, calibrated and validated for its suitability to simulate rice production in the tropical humid climate Kerala State of India, is used for analysing the effect of climate change on rice productivity in the state. The plausible climate change scenario for the Indian subcontinent as expected by the middle of the next century, taking into account the projected emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model experiment performed at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Germany, is adopted for the study. The adopted scenario represented an increase in monsoon seasonal mean surface temperature of the order of about 1.5°C, and an increase in rainfall of the order of 2 mm per day, over the state of Kerala in the decade 2040–2049 with respect to the 1980s. The IPCC Business-as-usual scenario projection of plant usable concentration of CO2 about 460 PPM by the middle of the next century are also used in the crop model simulation. On an average over the state with the climate change scenario studied, the rice maturity period is projected to shorten by 8% and yield increase by 12%. When temperature elevations only are taken into consideration, the crop simulations show a decrease of 8% in crop maturity period and 6% in yield. This shows that the increase in yield due to fertilisation effect of elevated CO2 and increased rainfall over the state as projected in the climate change scenario nearly makes up for the negative impact on rice yield due to temperature rise. The sensitivity experiments of the rice model to CO2 concentration changes indicated that over the state, an increase in CO2 concentration leads to yield increase due to its fertilisation effect and also enhance the water use efficiency of the paddy. The temperature sensitivity experiments have shown that for a positive change in temperature up to 5°C, there is a continuous decline in the yield. For every one degree increment the decline in yield is about 6%. Also, in another experiment it is observed that the physiological effect of ambient CO2 at 425 ppm concentration compensated for the yield losses due to increase in temperature up to 2°C. Rainfall sensitivity experiments have shown that increase in rice yield due to increase in rainfall above the observed values is near exponential. But decrease in rainfall results in yield loss at a constant rate of about 8% per 2 mm/day, up to about 16 mm/day.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Acock, B. and Allen, L. H.: 1985, ‘Crop Responses to Elevated Carbon Dioxide Concentrations’, in Strain B. R. and Cure J. D. (eds.), Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., pp. 33-97.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams, R. M., McCarl, D. A., Dudek, D. J., and Glyer, J. D.: 1988, ‘Implications of Global Climate Change for Western Agriculture’, J. Agric. Economics 13, 348-356.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams, R. M., Rosenzweig, C., Peart, R. N., Ritchie, J. T., McCarl, D. A., Glyer, J. D., Curry, R. D., Jones, J. W., Boote, K. J., and Allen, L. H.: 1990, ‘Global Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture’, Nature 345, 219-224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Allen, L. H., Boote, K. J., Jones, J. W., Valle, R. R., Acock, B., Rogers, H. H., and Dahlman, R. C.: 1987, ‘Response of Vegetation to Rising Carbon Dioxide: Photosynthesis, Biomass, and Seed Yield of Soybean’, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 1, 1-14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alocilja, E. C. and Ritchie, J. T.: 1988, ‘Rice Simulation and its Use in Multicriteria Optimization’, IBSNAT Research Report Series 01, 1-95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boote, K. J., Jones, J. W., Mishoe, J. W., and Berger, R. D.: 1983, ‘Coupling Pest Crop Growth Simulators to Predict Yield Reductions’, Phytopathology 73, 1581-1587.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boote, K. J., Batchelor, W. D., Jones, J. W., Pinnschmidt, H., and Bourgeois, G.: 1993, ‘Pest Damage Relations at the Field Level’, in Penning De Vries, F. W. T., Teng, P., and Metselaar, K. (eds.), Systems Approaches for Agricultural Development, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 277-296.

    Google Scholar 

  • Crisanto, R. E. and Leando, V. B.: 1994, ‘Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines: Simulation of Rice Yield under Climate Change Scenarios’, Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modelling Study, U.S. Climate Change Division Report, EPA 230-B-94-003, 2-14.

  • Cure, J. D.: 1985, ‘Carbon Dioxide Doubling Responses: A Crop Survey’, in Cure, J. D. (ed.), Direct Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide on Vegetation, Washington D.C., pp. 100-116.

  • Cure, J. D. and Acock, B.: 1986, ‘Crop Responses to Carbon Dioxide Doubling-A Literature Survey’, Agric. For. Meteorol. 38, 127-145.

    Google Scholar 

  • Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum: 1994, ‘The ECHAM3 Atmospheric General Circulation Model’, Technical Report No. 6, DKRZ, Hamburg, p. 187.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gennadiy, V. M. and Larisa, A. K.: 1994, ‘Potential Effects of Global Warming and Carbon Dioxide on Wheat Production in the Former Soviet Union’, Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modelling Study, U.S. Climate Change Division Report, EPA, 230-B-94-003, pp 1-35.

  • Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC): 1992, ‘The 1992 Supplement to the IPCC Scientific Assessment’, in Houghton et al. (eds.) WMO/UNEP Rep., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., p. 204.

    Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC): 1994, ‘Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios’, in Houghton et al. (eds.) WMO/UNEP Rep., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., p. 339.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimball, B. A.: 1983, ‘Carbon Dioxide and Agricultural Yield-An Assemblage and Analysis of 430 Prior Observations’, Agron. J. 75, 779-788.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lal, M., Cubasch, U., Voss, R., and Waszkewitz, J.: 1995, ‘Effect of Transient Increase in Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols on Monsoon Climate’, Curr. Sci. 69, 752-763.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, H. Z., Namuco, O., Toti Moya, and Quilang, J.: 1995, ‘Growth and Yield Response of Field Grown Tropical Rice to Increasing Carbon Dioxide and Air Temperature’, Agron. J. 89, 45-53.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1975, ‘The Effect of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model’, J. Atmos. Sci. 32, 3-15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: 1980, ‘Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere’, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 5529-5554.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manabe, S., Spleman, M. J., and Stouffer, F. J.: 1992, ‘Transient Response of a Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2-Part II, Seasonal Response’, J. Climate 5, 105-126.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morison, J. I. L.: 1987, ‘Intercellular CO2 Concentration and Stomatal Response to CO2’, in Zeiger, E., Cowan, I. R., and Farquhar, G. D. (eds.), Stomatal Functions: Stanford University Press, Stanford, California, pp. 229-251.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peart, R. M., Jones, R. B., Curry, K., Boote, K. J., and Allen, L. H.: 1989, ‘Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yield in the Southeastern U.S.A.’, in: Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. A. (eds.), The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Report to Congress, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-230-05-89-050, Washington D.C., Appendix C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pinnschmidt, H. O., Batchelor, W. D., and Teng, P. S.: 1995, ‘Simulation of Multiple Pest Damage in Rice Using CERES-Rice’, Agric. Syst. 48, 193-222.

    Google Scholar 

  • Otavio, J. F. de S., Jose, R. B. F., and Luis, M. A. S.: 1994, ‘Potential Effects of Global Climate Change for Brazilian Agriculture Applied Simulation Studies for Wheat, Maize and Soybeans’, Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modelling Study, U.S. Climate Change Division Report, EPA, 230-B-94-003, 1-28.

  • Rao, G. D. and Sinha, S. K.: 1994, ‘Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Wheat Production in India’, Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture, U.S. Climate Change Division Report, EPA, 230-B-94-003, 1-17.

  • Ritchie, J. T.: 1993, ‘Genetic Specific Data for Crop Modelling’, in Penning de Vries, F. W. T., Teng, P., and Metselaar, K. (eds.), Systems Approaches for Agricultural Development, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 77-93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, C. and Iglesias, A.: 1994, ‘Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modelling Study’, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Policy Planning and Evaluation, INTRO, pp. 3-30.

  • Saseendran, S. A., Singh, K. K., Rathore, L. S., Prasada Rao, G. S. L. H. V., Nisha Mendiratta, Laxmi Narayan, K., and Singh, S. V.: 1998, ‘Evaluation of the CERES-Rice v3. for the Climatic Conditions of the Kerala State, India’, Meteorol. Appl. J. 5, 385-392.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sikka, D. R. and Pant, G. B.: 1991, ‘Global Climate Change: Regional Scenario over India’, in Abrol, I. P. et al. (eds.) Proceedings Indo US Work Shop on Impact of Global Climate Changes on Photosynthesis and Plant Productivity, Jan. 8-12, 1991, Oxford & IBH Publishing Company Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi, pp. 551-571.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh, U., Godwin, D. C., and Ritchie, J. T.: 1994, ‘CERES-Rice in DSSAT v3.’, in Tsuji, G. Y., Uehara, G., and Balas, S. S. (eds.), University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, p. 97.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sinha, S. K.: 1991, ‘Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Critical Assessment’, in Jager, J. and Ferguson, H. L. (eds.) Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy, Proc. of the Second World Climate Conf., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., pp. 99-107.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sinha, S. K.: 1993, ‘Response of Tropical Ecosystems to Climate Change’, International Crop Science, Crop Science Society of America, 677 S. Segoe Rd., Madison, WI 53711, U.S.A, pp. 281-289.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tashiro, T. and Ian, F. Wardlaw: 1991, ‘The Effect of High Temperature on the Accumulation of Dry Matter, Carbon and Nitrogen in the Kernel Rice’, Aust. J. Plant. Physiol. 18, 259-265.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tiedtke, M. 1989, ‘A Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in Large Scale Models’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 117, 1779-1800.

    Google Scholar 

  • Washington, W. M. and Daggupaty, S. M.: 1975, ‘Numerical Simulation with NCAR Global Circulation Model of the Mean Conditions during the Asian-African Summer Monsoon’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 103, 105-114.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Food Institute: 1988, ‘World Food Trade and U.S. Agriculture 1960-1987’, Iowa State University, Ames, p. 90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yoshida, S. and Hara, T.: 1977, ‘Effects of Air Temperature and Light on Grain Filling of an Indica and Japonica Rice under Controlled Environmental Conditions’, Soil Sci. Plant Nutr. 23, 93-107.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, J. C.: 1989, ‘The CO2 Problem in Climate and Dryness in North China’, Meteorol. Magazine 15, 3-8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhiqing, J., Ge, D., Chen, H., and Fang, J.: 1994, ‘Effects of Climate Change on Rice Production and Strategies for Adaptation in Southern China’, Implications of Climate Change for International Agriculture: Crop Modelling Study, U.S. Climate Change Division Report, EPA, 230-B-94-003, 1-24.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi –, 110003, India

    S. A. Saseendran, K. K. Singh, L. S. Rathore & S. V. Singh

  2. Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India

    S. K. Sinha

Authors
  1. S. A. Saseendran
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. K. K. Singh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. L. S. Rathore
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. S. V. Singh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. S. K. Sinha
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Saseendran, S.A., Singh, K.K., Rathore, L.S. et al. Effects of Climate Change on Rice Production in the Tropical Humid Climate of Kerala, India. Climatic Change 44, 495–514 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005542414134

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005542414134

Keywords

Search

Navigation