Climatic Change

, Volume 41, Issue 2, pp 213–248 | Cite as

Predicted Effects of Climatic Change on Distribution of Ecologically Important Native Tree and Shrub Species in Florida

  • Elgene O. Box
  • David W. Crumpacker
  • E. Dennis Hardin
Article

Abstract

A previously developed plant species-climatic envelope model was evaluated further and used to predict effects of hypothesized climatic change on the potential distribution of 124 native woody plant species in Florida, U.S.A. Twelve scenarios were investigated. These included mean annual temperature increases of 1 °C or 2 °C, achieved either by equal 1 °C or 2 °C increases on a monthly basis throughout the year, or by disproportionately larger seasonal increases in winter and smaller ones in summer. The various temperature increases were then combined with each of several precipitation changes, ranging from +10% to –20%, to produce the final set of scenarios. More detailed analysis involving six of the scenarios and a subset of 28 representative, ecologically important species suggested that (1) large decreases in the Florida range of many temperate species would result if 1 °C warming occurs predominantly in winter or with a 20% decrease in annual precipitation, or (2) if 2 °C warming occurs, with or without decrease in annual precipitation, and regardless of whether there is a uniform monthly warming pattern or one that is higher in winter than in summer. Available information concerning other factors that might also affect climatic-change responses suggests that these large predicted impacts on temperate Florida species may be underestimates. Subtropical Florida species will tend to move north and inland with warming but extensive human assistance may be needed, if they are to realize their newly expanded, potential natural ranges.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Barbour, M. G., Burk, J. H., and Pitts, W. D.: 1987, Terrestrial Plant Ecology, 2nd edn., The Benjamin/Cummings Publ. Co., Inc., Menlo Park, CA.Google Scholar
  2. Bartlein, P. J., Prentice, I. C., and Webb, III, T.: 1986, ‘Climatic Response Surfaces from Pollen Data for Some Eastern North American Taxa’, J. Biogeog. 13, 35-57.Google Scholar
  3. Bartlein, P. J., Whitlock, C., and Shafer, S. L.: 1997, ‘Future Climate in the Yellowstone National Park Region and its Potential Impact on Vegetation’, Conserv. Biol. 11, 782-792.Google Scholar
  4. Bolin, B., Döös, B. R., Jäger, J., and Warrick, R. A. (eds.): 1986, The Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change, and Ecosystems, SCOPE 29, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, U.K.Google Scholar
  5. Botkin, D. B., Nisbet, R. A., and Reynales, T. E.: 1989, ‘Effects of Climate Change on Forests of the Great Lakes’, in Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. A. (eds.), The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States: Appendix D — Forests, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environ. Protect. Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA 230-05-89-054, pp. 2-1-2-31.Google Scholar
  6. Box, E. O.: 1981, Macroclimate and Plant Forms: An Introduction to Predictive Modeling in Phytogeography, Dr. W. Junk Publishers, The Hague.Google Scholar
  7. Box, E. O.: 1986, ‘Some Climatic Relationships of the Vegetation of Argentina, in Global Perspective’, Veröeffentlichungen Geobotanisches Institut Eigenoessiche Technische Hochschule, Stiftung Rübel, in Zurich 91, 181-216.Google Scholar
  8. Box, E. O.: 1987, ‘Modeling Vegetation-Environment Relationships, with Mediterranean Examples’, Annali di Botanica 45, 7-36.Google Scholar
  9. Box, E. O.: 1994, ‘Eastern North America: Natural Environment and Sampling Strategy’, in Miyawaki, A., Iwatsuke, K., and Grandtner, M. M. (eds.), Vegetation in Eastern North America, Tokyo University Press, Tokyo, Japan, pp. 21-57.Google Scholar
  10. Box, E. O.: 1995, ‘Factors Determining Distribution of Tree Species and Plant Functional Types’, Vegetatio 121, 101-116.Google Scholar
  11. Box, E. O., Crumpacker, D. W., and Hardin, E. D.: 1993, ‘A Climatic Model for Location of Plant Species in Florida, U.S.A.’, J. Biogeog. 20, 629-644.Google Scholar
  12. Campbell, G., Kittel, T. G. F., Meehl, G. A., and Washington, W. M.: 1995, ‘Low-Frequency Variability and CO2 Transient Climate Change. Part 2. EOF Analysis’, Global Planet. Change 10, 201-216.Google Scholar
  13. Curtis, P. S. and Wang, X.: 1998, ‘A Meta-Analysis of Elevated C02 Effects on Woody Plant Mass, Form, and Physiology’, Oecologia 113, 299-313.Google Scholar
  14. Davis, M. B. and Zabinski, C.: 1992, ‘Changes in Geographical Range Resulting from Greenhouse Warming: Effects on Biodiversity in Forests’, in Peters, R. L. and Lovejoy, T. E. (eds.), Global Warming and Biological Diversity, Yale University Press, New Haven, CN, pp. 297-308.Google Scholar
  15. Dohrenwend, R. E. and Harris, L. D.: 1975, ‘A Climatic Change Impact Analysis of Peninsular Florida Life Zones’, in Impacts of Climate Change on the Biosphere, Part 2, Climatic Impact, Climate Assessment Program, U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Washington, D.C., pp. 5/107-5/122.Google Scholar
  16. Emanuel, W. R., Shugart, H. H., and Stevenson, M. P.: 1985a, ‘Climatic Change and the Broad-Scale Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystem Complexes’, Clim. Change 7, 29-43.Google Scholar
  17. Emanuel, W. R., Shugart, H. H., and Stevenson, M.: 1985b, ‘Response to Comment: Climatic Change and the Broad-Scale Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystem Complexes’, Clim. Change 7, 457-460.Google Scholar
  18. Gates, D. M.: 1993, Climate Change and its Biological Consequences, Sinauer Assoc., Inc., Sunderland, MA.Google Scholar
  19. Greenland Ice-Core Project (GRIP) Members: 1993, ‘Climate Instability during the Last Interglacial Period Recorded in the GRIP Ice Core’, Nature 364, 203-207.Google Scholar
  20. Harris, L. D. and Cropper, Jr., W. P.: 1992, ‘Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea: Implications of Climate Change for Florida's Fauna’, in Peters, R. L. and Lovejoy, T. E. (eds.), Global Warming and Biological Diversity, Yale University Press, New Haven, CN, pp. 309-324.Google Scholar
  21. Haxeltine, A., Prentice, I. C., and Cresswell, I. D.: 1998, ‘A Coupled Carbon and Water Flux Model to Predict Vegetation Structure’, J. Veg. Sci., in press. (Cited in chapter 9: Terrestrial Biotic Responses to Environmental Change and Feedbacks to Climate; Houghton et al., 1996; see below.)Google Scholar
  22. Henderson, S., Hattersley, P., von Caemmerer, S., and Osmond, C. B.: 1994, ‘Are C4 Pathway Plants Threatened by Global Climatic Change?’, in Schulze, E.-D. and Caldwell, M. M. (eds.), Ecophysiology of Photosynthesis, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 529-549.Google Scholar
  23. Heywood, V. H. (consultant ed.): 1993, updated ed., Flowering Plants of the World, Oxford University Press, New York.Google Scholar
  24. Holdridge, L. R.: 1947, ‘Determination of World Plant Formations from Simple Climatic Data’, Science 105, 367-368.Google Scholar
  25. Holdridge, L. R.: 1959, ‘Simple Method for Determining Potential Evapotranspiration from Temperature Data’, Science 130, 572.Google Scholar
  26. Holdridge, L. R.: 1967, Life Zone Ecology, rev. edn., Tropical Science Center, San Jose, Costa Rica.Google Scholar
  27. Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.): 1996, Climate Change 1995 — The Science of Climate Change, contributions of Working Group 1 to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.Google Scholar
  28. Hunt, D. M.: 1990, A Systematic Review of Quercus Series Laurifoliae, Marilandicae, and Nigrae, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Georgia, Athens.Google Scholar
  29. Karl, T. R., Knight, R.W., Easterling, D. R., and Quayle, R. G.: 1995, ‘Trends in U.S. Climate during the Twentieth Century’, Consequences 1, 3. (Cited in Kerr, R. A.: 1995b; see below.)Google Scholar
  30. Kerr, R. A.: 1995a, ‘Sun's Role in Warming is Discounted’, Science 268, 28-29.Google Scholar
  31. Kerr, R. A.: 1995b, ‘U.S. Climate Tilts toward the Greenhouse’, Science 268, 363-364.Google Scholar
  32. Kimball, B. A., Mauney, J. R., Nakayama, F. S., and Idso, S. B.: 1993, ‘Effects of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 on Vegetation’, Vegetatio 104/105, 65-75.Google Scholar
  33. Lenihan, J. M. and Neilson, R. P.: 1993, ‘A Rule-Based Vegetation Formation Model for Canada’, J. Biogeog. 20, 615-628.Google Scholar
  34. Lenihan, J. M. and Neilson, R. P.: 1995, ‘Canadian Vegetation Sensitivity to Projected Climatic Change at Three Organizational Levels’, Clim. Change 30, 27-56.Google Scholar
  35. Lieth, H.: 1974, ‘Possible Effects of Climate Changes on Natural Vegetation’, in Kopec, R. J. (ed.), Atmospheric Quality and Climatic Change, Studies in Geography 9, UNC Geography, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, pp. 150-159.Google Scholar
  36. Lines, Jr., L. G. and Harris, L. D.: 1989, ‘Isolation of Nature Reserves in North Florida: Measuring Linkage Exposure’, Trans. 54th No. Am. Wildlife and Natur. Res. Conf., 113-120.Google Scholar
  37. Linhart, Y. B. and Grant, M. C.: 1996, ‘Evolutionary Significance of Local Genetic Differentiation in Plants’, Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 27, 237-277.Google Scholar
  38. Little, Jr., E. L.: 1971, Atlas of United States Trees, Volume 1, Conifers and Important Hardwoods, Misc. Pub. No. 1146, U.S. Dept. Agric., Forest Service, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  39. Little, Jr., E. L.: 1977, Atlas of United States Trees, Volume 4, Minor Eastern Hardwoods, Misc. Pub. No. 1342, U.S. Dept. Agric., Forest Service, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  40. Little, Jr., E. L.: 1978, Atlas of United States Trees, Volume 5, Florida, Misc. Pub. No. 1361, U.S. Dept. Agric., Forest Service, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  41. Meehl, G. A., Wheeler, M., and Washington, W. M.: 1994, ‘Low-Frequency Variability and CO2 Transient Climate Change. Part 3. Intermonthly and Interannual Variability’, Clim. Dyn. 10, 277-303. (Cited in Houghton et al.: 1996; see above.)Google Scholar
  42. Morse, L. E., Kutner, L. S., Maddox, G. D., Honey, L. L., Thurman, C. M., Kartesz, J. T., and Chaplin, S. J.: 1993, The Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Native Vascular Flora of North America — A Preliminary Climate Envelopes Analysis, TR-103330, Res. Proj. 3041-03, Nov., 1993, prepared for Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, Calif., by The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, Va.; The North Carolina Botanical Garden, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; and The Nature Conservancy Midwestern Heritage Task Force, Minneapolis, MN.Google Scholar
  43. Myers, R. L.: 1986, ‘Florida's Freezes: An Analog of Short-Duration Nuclear Winter Events in the Tropics’, Florida Scientist 49, 104-115.Google Scholar
  44. Myers, R. L. and Ewel, J. J.: 1990, Ecosystems of Florida, University of Central Florida Press, Orlando, FL.Google Scholar
  45. Neilson, R. P., King, G. A., DeVelice, R. L., and Lenihan, J. M.: 1992, ‘Regional and Local Vegetation Patterns: The Response of Vegetation Diversity to Subcontinental Air Masses’, in Hansen, A. J. and di Castri, F. (eds.), Landscape Boundaries — Consequences for Biotic Diversity and Ecological Flows, Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 129-149.Google Scholar
  46. Neilson, R. P., King, G. A., DeVelice, R. L., Lenihan, J., Marks, D., Dolph, J., Campbell, B., and Glick, G.: 1989, Sensitivity of Ecological Landscapes and Regions to Global Climate Change, Environ. Research Lab., U.S. Environ. Prot. Agency, Corvallis, OR, EPA/600/3-8/073.Google Scholar
  47. Neilson, R. P. and Marks, D.: 1994, ‘A Global Perspective of Regional Vegetation and Hydrologic Sensitivities from Climatic Change’, J. Veg. Sci. 5, 715-730.Google Scholar
  48. Orians, G. H.: 1993, ‘Policy Implications of Global Climate Change’, in Kareiva, P. M., Kingsolver, J. G., and Huey, R. B. (eds.), Biotic Interactions and Global Change, Sinauer Assoc., Sunderland, MA, pp. 467-479.Google Scholar
  49. Overpeck, J. T. and Bartlein, P. J.: 1989, ‘Assessing the Response of Vegetation to Future Climate Change: Ecological Response Surfaces and Paleoecological Model Validation’, in Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. A., (eds.), The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States: Appendix D — Forests, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environ. Prot. Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA 230-05-89-054, pp. 1-1-1-32.Google Scholar
  50. Overpeck, J. T., Bartlein, P. J., and Webb III, T.: 1991, ‘Potential Magnitude of Future Vegetation Change in Eastern North America: Comparisons with the Past’, Science 254, 692-695.Google Scholar
  51. Peters, II, R. L.: 1988, ‘The Effect of Global Climatic Change on Natural Communities’, in Wilson, E. O. (ed.) and Peter, F.M. (assoc. ed.), Biodiversity, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 450-461.Google Scholar
  52. Peters, R. L. and Darling, J. D. S.: 1985, ‘The Greenhouse Effect and Nature Reserves’, BioScience 35, 707-717.Google Scholar
  53. Poorter, H.: 1993, ‘Interspecific Variation in the Growth Response of Plants to an Elevated Ambient CO2 Concentration’, Vegetatio 104/105, 77-97.Google Scholar
  54. Prentice, I. C., Bartlein, P. J., and Webb, III., T.: 1991a, ‘Vegetation and Climate Change in Eastern North America since the Last Glacial Maximum’, Ecology 72, 2038-2056.Google Scholar
  55. Prentice, I. C., Sykes, M. T., and Cramer, W.: 1991b, ‘The Possible Dynamic Response of Northern Forests to Global Warming’, Global Ecol. Biogeog. Lett. 1, 129-135. (Cited in Gates, D. M.: 1993; see above.)Google Scholar
  56. Rübel, E. F.: 1930, Pflanzengesellschaften der Erde, Verlag Hans Huber, Bern, Switzerland.Google Scholar
  57. Sage, R., Li, M., and Monson, R. K.: 1998, ‘A Taxonomic Distribution of C4 Photosynthesis’, in Sage, R. and Monson, R. K. (eds.), The Biology of C 4 Plants, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, in press.Google Scholar
  58. Sargent, N. E.: 1988, ‘Redistribution of the Canadian Boreal Forest under a Warmed Climate’, Clim. Bull. 22, 23-34.Google Scholar
  59. Schneider, S. H.: 1994, ‘Detecting Climatic Change Signals: Are there any “Fingerprints”?’, Science 263, 341-347.Google Scholar
  60. Schneider, S. H., Mearns, L., and Gleick, P. H.: 1992, ‘Climate-Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment’, in Peters, R. L. and Lovejoy, T. E. (eds.), Global Warming and Biological Diversity, Yale University Press, New Haven, CN, pp. 38-55.Google Scholar
  61. Shepard, D. S.: 1984, ‘Computer Mapping: The SYMAP Interpolation Algorithm’, in Gaile, G. L. and Wilmott, C. J. (eds.), Spatial Statistics and Models, D. Reidel Publ. Co. and Kluwer Boston Academic Publishers, Hingham, MA, pp. 133-145.Google Scholar
  62. Singer, S. F.: 1996, ‘Climate Change and Consensus’, Science 271, 581-582.Google Scholar
  63. Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. (eds.): 1989a, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environ. Protect. Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA 230-05-89-050.Google Scholar
  64. Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. A. (eds.): 1989b, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States: Appendix D — Forests, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environ. Protect. Agency, Washington, D. C., EPA 230-05-89-054.Google Scholar
  65. Solomon, A. M.: 1986, ‘Transient Response of Forests to CO2-Induced Climate Change: Simulation Modeling Experiments in Eastern North America’, Oecologia 68, 567-579.Google Scholar
  66. Soulé, M. E.: 1990, ‘The Onslaught of Alien Species, and other Challenges in the Coming Decades’, Conserv. Biol. 4, 233-239.Google Scholar
  67. Thomson, D. J.: 1995, ‘The Seasons, Global Temperature, and Precision’, Science 268, 59-68.Google Scholar
  68. Uhl, N. W. and Dransfield, J.: 1987, Genera Palmarum — A Classification of Palms Based on the Work of Harold E. Moore, Jr., L. H. Bailey Hortorium and the International Palm Society, Allen Press, Lawrence, KN.Google Scholar
  69. Urban, D. L. and Shugart, H. H.: 1989, ‘Forest Response to Climatic Change: A Simulation Study for Southeastern Forests’, in Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. A. (eds.), The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States: Appendix D — Forests, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Environ. Prot. Agency, Washington, D.C., EPA 230-05-89-054, pp. 3-1-3-45.Google Scholar
  70. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service: 1981, 26 Ecological Communities of Florida, U.S. Dept. of Agric., Soil Conserv. Serv., Fort Worth, TX.Google Scholar
  71. White, J. W. C.: 1993, ‘Don't Touch that Dial’, Nature 364, 186.Google Scholar
  72. Wilsey, B. J.: 1996, ‘Plant Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO2 among Terrestrial Biomes’, Oikos 76, 201-206.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Authors and Affiliations

  • Elgene O. Box
    • 1
  • David W. Crumpacker
    • 2
  • E. Dennis Hardin
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of GeographyUniversity of GeorgiaAthensU.S.A.
  2. 2.Department of Environmental, Population and Organismic BiologyUniversity of ColoradoBoulderU.S.A.
  3. 3.Florida Division of ForestryTallahasseeU.S.A.

Personalised recommendations