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Uncertainty Analysis of Rock Failure Behaviour Using an Integration of the Probabilistic Collocation Method and Elasto-Plastic Cellular Automaton

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Abstract

The Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion and probabilistic collocation method (PCM) are combined and applied to an uncertainty analysis of rock failure behavior by integrating a sell-developed numerical method (i.e., the elastic-plastic cellular automaton (EPCA)). The results from the method developed are compared using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method. It is concluded that the method developed requires fewer collocations than MCS method to obtain very high accuracy and greatly reduces the computational cost. Based on the method, the elasto-plastic and elasto-brittle-plastic analyses of rocks under mechanical loadings are conducted to study the uncertainty in heterogeneous rock failure behaviour.

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Correspondence to Pengzhi Pan.

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Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51322906 and 41272349), the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2013CB036405) and Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS (No. 2011240).

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Pan, P., Su, F., Chen, H. et al. Uncertainty Analysis of Rock Failure Behaviour Using an Integration of the Probabilistic Collocation Method and Elasto-Plastic Cellular Automaton. Acta Mech. Solida Sin. 28, 536–555 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0894-9166(15)30048-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0894-9166(15)30048-3

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