The majority of BRI projects consist of infrastructure development, resource extraction and processing, and power generation. For example, Indonesia has received US$9.3 billion in finance from the China Development Bank (CDB) and Export–Import Bank of China (CHEXIM) for coal-fired power plants since 2000 [32, 33], with Chinese investment (including CDB/CHEXIM finance and FDI) accounting for over 14,000 megawatts (MW) of power in Indonesian coal-fired power plants since 2008 [34]. Furthermore, Chinese construction firms and power companies have been granted as many as 36 engineering, procurement, and construction contracts of coal-fired power plant projects [35]. While these activities may generate substantial economic benefits, they also have the potential for adverse social and ecological impacts, which may imperil those same economic gains.
A recent study by Yang et al. [36] found that 40% of Indonesian development projects financed by Chinese policy banks in the last decade (including 24 power plants, 4 roads, the Jakarta-Bandung railway, and the East Nusa Tenggara dams) present significant risks to biodiversity and/or Indigenous communities. On average, these projects overlap with 32 threatened species ranges, with some projects, like the Bengkulu and Teluk Sirih power plants, overlapping with the ranges of 50 or more threatened species. Further, 30% of the projects are located within areas potentially qualifying as ‘critical habitat’ by the International Finance Corporation, with the Balikpapan-Samarinda road development increasing fragmentation of the protected Bukit Soeharto Grand Forest Park in East Kalimantan. Several projects also occur within historic boundaries of Indigenous peoples’ lands, including four power plants and the Manado-Bitung toll road, placing additional risks to traditional livelihoods and the integrity of these communities’ lands.
Chinese FDI may also pose similar risks to vulnerable social-ecological systems, but such risks have yet to be investigated. To highlight these potential risks, we consider 14 clusters of Chinese FDI projects related to the BRI across Indonesia and provide an initial outlook of potential social and ecological risks, including projects in Sumatra (2 clusters), Java (2 clusters), Bali (1 cluster), Borneo (4 clusters), Sulawesi (2 clusters), East Nusa Tenggara (1 cluster), Maluku/the Mollucas (1 cluster), and Papua (1 cluster) (Fig. 2a). We focus on these clusters given the ecological and national importance of the projects and the presence of Indigenous peoples in the areas, while maximizing the geographical representation and diversity of business cores.
Land use/land cover change
We calculated the extent of land clearing for each project within the 14 clusters by analyzing the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) with a harmonic time series dataset of Landsat series (1972–2020) and Sentinel-2 (2016–2021) [37]. Land clearing for infrastructure development occurs in all 14 clusters, as well as in open pit mines for coal, bauxite, nickel and limestone mining. Starting as early as 2009, the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park has led to large and ongoing land clearing over time (Fig. 2b), mostly for the construction of its industrial complex and operation of open pit mines (Fig. 2c). The SDIC Cement Project in West Paupa has cleared a more modest amount of land, yet 180 ha of Maruni protected forest has been cleared since May 2016 (Fig. 2c). Meanwhile, several clusters, such as the Batang Toru, East Nusa Tenggara Dams, Kayan River Cascade Hydropower, and Likupang Economic Zone, have not shown substantial land use change or land clearing. While these projects may indeed have a smaller clearing footprint, this may also be indicative of early stages of project development. In addition to the direct ecological risks from habitat loss and fragmentation, vegetation clearance and the stripping of topsoil increases carbon emissions and pollution risks.
Pollution and carbon emissions
The surge in coal-fired power plants associated with the BRI presents several environmental and health challenges. These plants contribute to carbon emissions and emit pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and particulate matter, which can create smog, haze, and acid rain, affecting respiratory health [38]. They also produce hot water effluents (thermal pollution) created from high pressure steam to rotate turbines, which adversely affects aquatic ecosystems [39]. The ecological and social footprints of coal consumption surrounding coal mines is a particular concern in Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo). For instance, PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) in East Kalimantan, the second largest production site in Indonesia, has been responsible for contaminating the river used by downstream villagers with untreated wastewater discharge, increased flooding, severe dust and noise pollution from blasting, and forced displacement of local people from ancestral homelands, reducing the land available to them for traditional cultivation and hunting practices [40, 41]. Hydropower projects also present inundation risks, particularly the Kayan River Cascade Hydropower Project in North Kalimantan, which consists of five dams.
These pollutants can also have deleterious effects on migratory species. In Paiton (East Java), for instance, the release of toxic and thermal stressors [42] from the Paiton power plant—the largest coal-fired steam power plant complex in Southeast Asia—has the potential to directly impact the endangered whale shark (Rhincodon typus), which has been spotted in the plant’s water canal several times [43]. Based on temporal observations of satellite-derived sea surface temperature [44], the coastal seas surrounding the power plant have increased 0.58ºC over the past 30 years (Fig. 2d). These stressors will most likely influence the abundance of plankton and smaller animals on which whale sharks feed, leading to more indirect impacts that manifest through the food chain. The potential impacts of these pollutants on the food chain become even more consequential for Indonesia and beyond given the importance of this migratory route for other plankton and/or nekton feeders, like the blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus), humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae), and short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhyncus) which have also been known to pass through the Madura strait.
Threatened species
Using range maps from the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species [45], we identified at least 42 threatened species in 14 localities across Indonesia (8 critically endangered, 13 endangered, and 21 vulnerable species). Extractive industries and infrastructure development threaten species’ persistence across the country, including some island endemic species that only occur in one location. Disturbance can dramatically reduce species’ foraging time, energetics, and even breeding opportunities. The conservation of both habitat specialists and disturbance-prone species should therefore be taken into account, as disturbances will naturally exert differential impacts on different threatened species.
Concentrations of threatened species are significant for each of Indonesia’s BRI localities. For instance, along the Balikpapan-Samarinda road, at least three endangered species are at risk: Bornean gibbon (Hylobates muelleri), Bornean peacock pheasant (Polyplectron schleiermacheri), and Southeast Asian box turtle (Cuora amboinensis). In another example, the construction of the Batang Toru hydropower plant may threaten at least five critically endangered species: Tapanuli orangutan (Pongo tapanuliensis), Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae), pangolin (Manis sp, trenggiling), helmetted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil, rangkong gading), and pitcher plant (Nepenthes sumatrana, kantong semar). However, no biodiversity assessments have been made across these development sites to date, which introduces further ambiguity to the potential negative ecological impacts within and between projects.
Socioeconomic risks
The geographic and economic scale of these BRI projects present several social risks in both the core areas of the project clusters as well as the sourcing areas of supporting materials, such as the mining sites for coal and minerals that feed the smelters. For instance, bauxite mines used to feed the alumina grade smelters owned by PT Well Harvest Winning Alumina Refinery and PT Borneo Alumindo Prima in the Ketapang district (West Kalimantan) are on the lands of the Indigenous Dayak peoples. With their open pit mining method, bauxite extraction could significantly jeopardize existing practices related to swidden agriculture, agroforestry, and customary forests, yielding adverse impacts on the livelihoods, health, and identities of these communities.
Another key risk to social systems is the potential for corruptive behavior in the implementation of the BRI in Indonesia, since permitting in business establishment has historically been susceptible to corruption. The Corruption Eradication Commission (Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi or KPK) has indicted a number of district heads (bupati) related to the issuance of concession licenses, including a former bupati of the nickel-rich Konawe Utara (Southeast Sulawesi)—a neighboring district of the Morowali district [46]. This risk deserves serious attention, as a recent study has shown that BRI investments in many other countries have been suspected to involve corrupt practices in securing projects [47]. Other studies have also flagged several economic risks that may be relevant to Indonesia. For example, Damuri et al. [48] identified several potential problems pertaining to Indonesian BRI projects, such as the prolific use of Chinese workers in project construction, the creditworthiness of Chinese companies, flawed trade balance, and the lack of involvement of small and medium enterprises in BRI projects.