Abstract
In this short note, we express our viewpoint regarding declaring study success based on Bayesian predictive probability of study success.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Spiegelhalter DJ, Freedman LS, Blackburn PR. Monitoring clinical trials: conditional or predictive power? Control Clin Trials. 1986;7:8–17.
Broglio KR, Connor JT, Berry SM. Not too big, not too small: a goldilocks approach to sample size selection. J Biopharm Stat. 2014;24(3):685–705.
Wilber DJ, Pappone C, Neuzil P, et al. Comparison of antiarrhythmic drug therapy and radiofrequency catheter ablation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: a randomized controlled trial. JAMA. 2010;303:333–40.
Funding
We declare there are no sources of study funding. We would like to extend our sincere gratitude to our colleague Dr. Lilly Yue who gave us valuable suggestions and continuous support in writing this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors had the idea for the article and contributed to the study conception. Literature research and the first draft of the manuscript was written by HL. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
We declare there are no financial interests in relation to the work described.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Li, H., Buzoianu, M., Chakraborty, A. et al. Some Thoughts on the Use of Predictive Probability in Clinical Trials. Ther Innov Regul Sci 57, 464–466 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43441-022-00456-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43441-022-00456-3