Abstract
Purpose
This natural history study reports long-term radiographic and clinical outcomes of patients with diagnosis of AIS with curves between 30° and 50°. Our purpose was to determine if any intervention in the natural history is warranted.
Methods
This was a longitudinal descriptive study at a single institution. We reviewed patient factors, radiographic parameters, and patient-reported outcomes at 20- and 30-year follow-up.
Results
A total of 31 patients were included. At skeletal maturity (which was the initial point of measurement), the median age was 17 years (range 12–21), the thoracic Cobb angle was 35° ± 5° (maximum–minimum 27°–47°), and the lumbar Cobb angle was 33° ± 7° (maximum–minimum 18°–45°). The median final follow-up was 35 years (median age 52, range 32–61) when the thoracic Cobb angle was 47° ± 12° (maximum–minimum 31°–74°) and the lumbar Cobb angle was 40° ± 17° (maximum–minimum 19°–69°). At final follow-up, 9 (29%) patients had a structural curve > 50°. Ten (32%) patients had a curve from 40° to 49° and 11 (35%) patients had a curve < 40°. The thoracic Cobb angle had progressed from < 40° to > 50° in 5 patients. Thoracolumbar and lumbar Cobb angles progressed from < 40° to greater than > 50° in 1 and 3 patients, respectively. Few patients had functional limitations according to Roland–Morris, Oswestry, and SF36 scores. Pain scores were minimal at final follow-up.
Conclusion
All AIS curves between 30° and 50° at skeletal maturity tend to progress. Thoracic curves progress more than lumbar curves during the first 20 years and then progression slows down. The opposite happens with lumbar curves. Therefore, the rate of progression decreases with thoracic curves and increases with lumbar curves. Nevertheless, few patients have functional limitations. Further follow-up is necessary to define the true long-term outcome of moderate curves at maturity.
Similar content being viewed by others
Availability of data and materials
Study data are available upon reasonable request.
Code availability
Not applicable; computer coding was not part of this study.
References
Weinstein SL, Zavala DC, Ponseti IV (1981) Idiopathic scoliosis: long-term follow-up and prognosis in untreated patients. J Bone Joint Surg Am 63:702–712
Weinstein SL, Dolan LA, Spratt KF, Peterson KK, Spoonamore MJ, Ponseti IV (2003) Health and function of patients with untreated idiopathic scoliosis: a 50-year natural history study. JAMA 289:559–667. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.289.5.559
Weinstein SL, Ponseti IV (1983) Curve progression in idiopathic scoliosis. J Bone Joint Surg Am 65:447–455
Weinstein SL (1986) Idiopathic scoliosis, natural history. Spine 11:780–783
Weinstein S (2001) Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: natural history. In: Weinstein S (ed) The pediatric spine: principles and practice, 2nd edn. Lippincott Williams and Wilkins, Philadelphia, pp 355–369
Ponseti IV, Friedman B (1950) Prognosis in idiopathic scoliosis. J Bone Joint Surg Am 32A:381–395
Fowles JV, Drummond DS, L’Ecuyer S, Roy L, Kassab MT (1978) Untreated scoliosis in the adult. Clin Orthop Relat Res 134:212–217
Ware JE, Snow KK, Kosinski M, Gandek B (1993) SF-36 health survey, manual and interpretation guide. The Health Institute, New England Medical Center, Boston
Slattery C, Verma K (2018) Classifications in brief: the Lenke classification for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Clin Orthop Relat Res 476:2271–2276. https://doi.org/10.1097/CORR.0000000000000405
Breakwell LM, Lenke LG (2008) The Lenke classification system of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. In: Mummaneni PV, Lenke LG, Haid RW (eds) Spinal deformity, a guide to surgical planning and management. Quality Medical Publishing Inc, St. Louis, pp 47–68
Ascani E, Bartolozzi P, Logroscino CA, Marchetti PG, Ponte A, Savini R, Travaglini F, Binazzi R, Di Silvestre M (1986) Natural history of untreated idiopathic scoliosis after skeletal maturity. Spine 11:784–789. https://doi.org/10.1097/00007632-198610000-00007
Nilsonne U, Lundgren KD (1968) Long-term prognosis in idiopathic scoliosis. Acta Orthop Scand 39:456–465. https://doi.org/10.3109/17453676808989663
Nachemson A (1968) A long term follow-up study of non-treated scoliosis. Acta Orthop Scand 39:466–476. https://doi.org/10.3109/17453676808989664
Edgar MA, Mehta MH (1988) Long-term follow-up of fused and unfused idiopathic scoliosis. J Bone Joint Surg Br 70:712–716. https://doi.org/10.1302/0301-620X.70B5.3192566
Edgar M (1987) The natural history of unfused scoliosis. Orthopaedics 10:931–939
Pehrsson K, Larsson S, Oden A, Nachemson A (1992) Long-term follow-up of patients with untreated scoliosis. A study of mortality, causes of death, and symptoms. Spine 17:1091–1096. https://doi.org/10.1097/00007632-199209000-00014
Agabegi SS, Kazemi N, Sturm PF, Mehlman CT (2015) Natural history of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis in skeletally mature patients: a critical review. J Am Acad Orthop Surg 23:714–723. https://doi.org/10.5435/JAAOS-D-14-00037
Marty-Poumarat C, Scattin L, Marpeau M, Garreau de Loubresse C, Aegerter P (2007) Natural history of progressive adult scoliosis. Spine 32:1227–1234. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.brs.0000263328.89135.a6
Larson AN, Baky F, Ashraf A, Baghdadi YM, Treder V, Polly DW Jr, Yaszemski MJ (2019) Minimum 20-year health-related quality of life and surgical rates after the treatment of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Spine Deform 7:417–427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspd.2018.09.003
Funding
No funding was received for conducting this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
CA: Data Collection, Writing, Original Draft Preparation, Approval of Final Version of Manuscript, Agree to be Accountable for the Work. AM: Data Collection, Writing, Original Draft Preparation, Approval of Final Version of Manuscript, Agree to be Accountable for the Work. OR: Data Collection, Writing, Original Draft Preparation, Approval of Final Version of Manuscript, Agree to be Accountable for the Work. JD: Writing, Original Draft Preparation, Approval of Final Version of Manuscript, Agree to be Accountable for the Work. FD(deceased): Data Collection, Writing, Original Draft Preparation. TG: Data Collection, Writing, Original Draft Preparation, Approval of Final Version of Manuscript, Agree to be Accountable for the Work. JP: Data Collection, Writing, Original Draft Preparation, Approval of Final Version of Manuscript, Agree to be Accountable for the Work.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
Ethics approval
This study was conducted under exempt status given by the Allina Health IRB, Minneapolis, MN. It was performed in accordance with the ethical standards as laid down in the 1964 Declaration of Helsinki and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.
Consent to participate
Before inclusion, each subject agreed to participate in the study by signing an informed consent agreement.
Consent for publication
Not applicable; no identifiable personal health information appears in the manuscript.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Alcala, C., Mehbod, A.A., Ramos, O. et al. Moderate scoliosis continues to progress at 30-year follow-up: a call for concern?. Spine Deform 12, 89–98 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43390-023-00765-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43390-023-00765-z