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The slip deficit on the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) in the Marmara Sea: insights from paleoseismicity, seismicity and geodetic data

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Abstract

The North Anatolian Fault experienced large earthquakes with 250–400 years recurrence time. In the Marmara Sea region, the 1999 (Mw = 7.4) and the 1912 (Mw = 7.4) earthquake ruptures bound the Central Marmara Sea fault segment. Using historical-instrumental seismicity catalogue and paleoseismic results (≃ 2000-year database), the mapped fault segments, fault kinematic and GPS data, we compute the paleoseismic-seismic moment rate and geodetic moment rate. A clear discrepancy appears between the moment rates and implies a significant delay in the seismic slip along the fault in the Marmara Sea. The rich database allows us to identify and model the size of the seismic gap and related fault segment and estimate the moment rate deficit. Our modelling suggest that the locked Central Marmara Sea fault segment (even including a creeping section) bears a moment rate deficit \({\dot{M}}_{d}\) = 6.4 × 1017 N.m./year that corresponds to Mw ≃ 7.4 for a future earthquake with an average ≃ 3.25 m coseismic slip. Taking into account the uncertainty in the strain accumulation along the 130-km-long Central fault segment, our estimate of the seismic slip deficit being ≃ 10 mm/year implies that the size of the future earthquake ranges between Mw = 7.4 and 7.5.

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Availability of data and material

The instrumental seismicity data obtained from Kandilli Observatory http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/2/earthquake-catalog/. Earthquake Research Institute and the International Seismological Center, http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/search/catalogue/.

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On request to the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

This work is dedicated to Aykut Barka who introduced us to the earthquake activity in the Istanbul and Marmara region. We are thankful to Serdar Akyuz, Erhan Altunel, Ziyadin Cakir, Esra Cetin, Aynur Dikbas, Ozgur Kozaci, Matthieu Ferry, Tom Rockwell, Gulsen Ucarkus, for the discussion on the faulting characteristics of the Marmara region. We are indebted to Semih Ergintav and Hayrullah Karabulut for providing GPS and seismicity data. We thank Aurélie Flamand for her study of deformation rate during her Master degree. This research with paleoseismic data collection was partly supported by the INSU-CNRS and EU-funded project RELIEF EVG1-2002-00069. We thank the Editors Attila Ciner and Cengiz Zabci for their comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. We are also grateful to two anonymous reviewers who helped improving the manuscript presentation. We also thank the Research Council of Norway through its Centre of Excellence funding scheme, project number 262644. Some figures have been produced using Generic Mapping Tools (Wessel and Smith 1995).

Funding

The INSU-CNRS, EU- project RELIEF EVG1-2002–00069 and the Research Council of Norway through its Centre of Excellence funding scheme, project number 262644.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, ITES, UMR 7063, 67084, Strasbourg, France

    M. Meghraoui & R. Toussaint

  2. Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, EOST, UAR 830, 67084, Strasbourg, France

    M. Meghraoui & R. Toussaint

  3. SFF PoreLab, The Njord Centre, Department of Physics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

    R. Toussaint

  4. Department of Geological Engineering, Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University, Muğla, Turkey

    M. E. Aksoy

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  1. M. Meghraoui
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  3. M. E. Aksoy
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Contributions

MM, RT and MEA did the data analysis. RT did the spatial interpolation of GPS data. MM and RT did the modeling of slip deficit. MM, RT and MEA prepared the manuscript.

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Correspondence to M. Meghraoui.

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Meghraoui, M., Toussaint, R. & Aksoy, M.E. The slip deficit on the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) in the Marmara Sea: insights from paleoseismicity, seismicity and geodetic data. Med. Geosc. Rev. 3, 45–56 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42990-021-00053-w

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