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Age Structure and Trend in the Development of China’s Marriage Squeeze

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Abstract

In China, a continuously abnormal sex ratio at birth is producing a severe marriage squeeze, with far more marriageable men than women. In this study, we propose a new index to measure the intensity of the male marriage squeeze. This index captures the intensity of the marriage squeeze overall, but can also be used to identify patterns across different age cohorts and between rural and urban areas. Data from China’s Sixth census in 2010 are used to observe the marriage squeeze in China from 2010 to 2019, then population forecasts are used to predict the male marriage squeeze over the next 30 years. There are three main findings. First, China’s marriage squeeze intensity will continue to rise until it peaks in 2043. Second, the age distribution of China’s marriage squeeze is clustered within specific age intervals. Third, the male marriage squeeze is significantly greater in rural areas than in urban areas. Uncovering these patterns is critical for a better understanding of the male marriage squeeze and devising effective solutions.

Resume

En Chine, un sexe-ratio continuellement anormal à la naissance entraîne une grave pression au mariage, avec bien davantage d’hommes que de femmes à marier. Dans cette étude, nous proposons un nouvel indice afin de mesurer l’intensité de la pression au mariage chez les hommes. Cet indice reflète l’intensité globale de la pression au mariage, mais il peut également servir à déterminer les tendances chez les cohortes de divers âges entre les régions rurales et urbaines. Les données du Sixième recensement de la Chine en 2010 sont utilisées pour observer la pression au mariage en Chine de 2010 à 2019, puis les prévisions démographiques servent à prédire la pression au mariage chez les hommes au cours des 30 prochaines années. Il s’en dégage trois constatations principales. Premièrement, l’intensité du la pression au mariage en Chine se poursuivra pour culminer en 2043. Deuxièmement, la répartition par âge de la pression au mariage en Chine se regroupe dans des intervalles précis d’âge. Troisièmement, la pression au mariage chez les hommes est sensiblement plus élevée dans les zones rurales que dans les zones urbaines. Il est essentiel de découvrir ces tendances afin de mieux comprendre la pression au mariage chez les hommes et d’élaborer des solutions efficaces.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

    Handong Li & Yujie Ren

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  1. Handong Li
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  2. Yujie Ren
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Correspondence to Yujie Ren.

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Li, H., Ren, Y. Age Structure and Trend in the Development of China’s Marriage Squeeze. Can. Stud. Popul. 49, 1–20 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42650-022-00061-7

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