Abstract
In recent years, discussions on how to capture a demographic dividend (DD) have come to dominate the debate on international development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model is that of the East-Asian countries that benefitted from a DD at the end of the twentieth century. Nowadays, the goal is to replicate a similar process in SSA. For this to happen, however, SSA countries will need to implement a number of policies, which we classify into policies fulfilling necessary conditions and policies fulfilling sufficient conditions required to capture a DD. These necessary and sufficient conditions aim at improving the demographic dependency ratio (DDR) but also, as importantly, the employment dependency ratio (EDR) and the socioeconomic dependency ratio (SDR), each ratio being more stringent than the previous ratio. In addition to the formulation and implementation of adequate policies in the area of population, education, health, and gender equity, SSA countries will need to design and implement sound economic policies and improve good governance. To achieve this tall order, it will be crucial to adopt an “integrated approach” in order to foster socioeconomic development across all sectors and muster the full commitment of both the African leadership and the donors’ community.
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Notes
It should be noted that each ratio is more stringent than the previous ratio.
This paper will exclusively focus on the first demographic dividend, i.e., the fostering of an economic surplus following a change in the age structure. A second dividend, namely an increased capital accumulation obtained through savings and investment, may occur after a first dividend has been captured (Lee and Mason 2006).
National Transfer Accounts Manual: Measuring and Analyzing the Generational Economy, New York: United Nations, 2013.
Centre de Recherches en Économie et Finance Appliquées de Thiès, Sénégal.
The Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demographic Dividend (SWEDD) is a World Bank project that includes six countries: Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger.
The demographic window of opportunity opens when fertility declines. This window of opportunity may last for a period of 40 to 50 years, until the proportion of the older population (65+) starts to increase rapidly, a phenomenon known as “population aging.”
Social protection includes policies and programs designed to reduce poverty and vulnerability.
The informal sector, as opposed to the formal sector, encompasses economic activities, enterprises, jobs, and workers that are not regulated or protected by the state.
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Groth, H., May, J.F. & Turbat, V. Policies Needed to Capture a Demographic Dividend in Sub-Saharan Africa. Can. Stud. Popul. 46, 61–72 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42650-019-00005-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42650-019-00005-8