Abstract
Three trends of Africa’s trade and investment in the last decade are conducive for strengthening economic cooperation between China and Africa. The first trend is the weakening of Europe and the United States as Africa’s traditional trade partners and investment sources. The second trend is the strengthening economic relations between China and Africa, characterized by a highly complementary trade structure and diversified foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks. The third trend is the development of free trade areas (FTAs) in Africa. While an internal FTA has achieved a breakthrough with the launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the realization of the full potential of the AfCFTA is still a problem. Closer China–Africa economic cooperation could help with this problem. For the economic benefits from the three trends and political wills of both sides, initiating a new FTA (the China–Africa Continental Free Trade Area, CAFTA) can be a feasible approach to further promoting China–African economic cooperation. However, Africa’s trade deficit in China–Africa trade, the diversity of China’s major economic partners in Africa, and competition from the US are complexities for possible CAFTA. By carefully focusing on augmenting the interests of both sides (especially on increasing African export), designing the steps of CAFTA development, and including non-tariff barriers in negotiation, the influence of those complexities is still manageable. Both China and Africa should seize the opportunities from long-term trends and other positive conditions to push further economic cooperation.
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Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand.
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Funding
This research was supported by “Research on Institutional Cooperation of Africa’s ‘North–South Corridor’ with ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ and Related Governance Capacity Building” (CAI-J2020-11) from China–Africa Institute, Beijing China.
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Li, Z. Prospects for China–Africa continental free trade area (CAFTA). China Int Strategy Rev. 5, 225–241 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-023-00148-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42533-023-00148-z