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Modelling the Impact of Changing Climate on Sediment Yield in a Data-Scarce High-Elevation Catchment in NW Himalayas

Modellierung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Sedimentausbeute in einem datenarmen hochgelegenen Einzugsgebiet im NW-Himalaya

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Abstract

This study's objectives include simulating and quantifying the sediment production from a data-scarce north-western Himalayan Lidder river basin using the SWAT model and providing baseline data and projections of future changes in the sediment yield in response to climate change. The model performed well for monthly streamflow simulation based on R2 and NSE values of 0.72 and 0.85, respectively, for calibration and R2 of 0.8 and NSE of 0.6 for validation. For simulation of future sediment yield, the future climate in the basin was projected using bias-adjusted RCM Cordex data with a geographical resolution of 0.44° under the medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. Assessment of climate change on sediment yield is determined for three time zones early (2010–2039), mid (20,140–2069) and late century (2070–2099). Climate change is having a significant influence on water resources. The observed average annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend from 1262 to 934 mm for the late century. Precipitation is expected to decrease by 11.98–14.59% for RCP 4.5 and 3.54–9.75% for RCP 8.5. The maximum and minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend under both RCPs with a higher increase in RCP 8.5. The maximum temperature is anticipated to increase by 1.69–3.97 °C for RCP 4.5 and 1.87–7.02 °C for RCP 8.5. Likewise, the minimum temperature is expected to increase by 1.79–3.87 °C for RCP 4.5 and 1.97–7.09 °C for RCP 8.5. The findings show that future sediment yield is anticipated to decline at all stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with a greater decline in RCP 4.5, demonstrating that precipitation significantly affects sediment yield generation in the basin.

Zusammenfassung

Zu den Zielen dieser Studie gehören die Simulation und Quantifizierung der

Sedimentproduktion in einem datenarmen Einzugsgebiet der Lidder im Nordwesten des Himalaya mit Hilfe des

SWAT-Modells sowie die Bereitstellung von Basisdaten und Projektionen künftiger Veränderungen des

Sedimentaufkommens als Reaktion auf den Klimawandel. Das Modell schnitt bei der Simulation des monatlichen

Abflusses mit R2- und NSE-Werten von 0,72 bzw. 0,85 für die Kalibrierung und R2 von 0,8 und NSE von 0,6 für die

Validierung gut ab. Für die Simulation der zukünftigen Sedimentausbeute wurde das zukünftige Klima im

Einzugsgebiet mit Hilfe von verzerrungsbereinigten RCM-Cordex-Daten mit einer geografischen Auflösung von

0,44° unter den mittleren (RCP 4,5) und hohen (RCP 8,5) Emissionsszenarien projiziert. Die Auswirkungen des

Klimawandels auf die Sedimentausbeute werden für die drei Zeitzonen Anfang (2010-2039), Mitte (2040-2069) und

Ende des Jahrhunderts (2070-2099) ermittelt. Der Klimawandel hat einen erheblichen Einfluss auf die

Wasserressourcen. Der beobachtete durchschnittliche Jahresniederschlag zeigt für das späte Jahrhundert einen

rückläufigen Trend von 1262 mm auf 934 mm. Es wird erwartet, dass die Niederschläge bei RCP 4.5 um 11,98-

14,59 % und bei RCP 8.5 um 3,54-9,75 % abnehmen werden. Die Maximal- und Minimaltemperaturen zeigen bei

beiden RCPs einen steigenden Trend, wobei der Anstieg bei RCP 8.5 höher ist. Die Höchsttemperatur wird

voraussichtlich um 1,69-3,97 °C für RCP 4,5 und um 1,87-7,02 °C für RCP 8,5 ansteigen. Ebenso wird erwartet,

dass die Minimaltemperatur um 1,79-3,87 °C für RCP 4,5 und 1,97-7,09 °C für RCP 8,5 ansteigen wird. Die

Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der künftige Sedimentertrag an allen Stationen für RCP 4,5 und RCP 8,5 zurückgehen

wird, wobei der Rückgang bei RCP 4,5 stärker ausfällt, was zeigt, dass die Niederschläge die Sedimenterzeugung

im Einzugsgebiet erheblich beeinflussen.

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Data Availability

Daily metrological data were obtained from Indian Meteorological Data (IMD), Pune, and measured data of stages and corresponding discharge for the gauging stations were obtained from the department of irrigation and flood control, Kashmir.

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Funding

This study was supported by MHRD, Government of India.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Srinagar, India

    Mohd Ayoub Malik & A. Q. Dar

  2. Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India

    Manoj K. Jain

Authors
  1. Mohd Ayoub Malik
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  2. A. Q. Dar
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  3. Manoj K. Jain
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Correspondence to Mohd Ayoub Malik.

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Malik, M.A., Dar, A.Q. & Jain, M.K. Modelling the Impact of Changing Climate on Sediment Yield in a Data-Scarce High-Elevation Catchment in NW Himalayas. KN J. Cartogr. Geogr. Inf. 73, 67–75 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42489-022-00128-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42489-022-00128-0

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