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Racial Differentials in the Wealth Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession

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Abstract

The financial crisis of 2007–2009 was arguably the most severe financial crisis in American history and the subsequent Great Recession was the worst economic downturn in the USA since the Great Depression. In this paper, we analyze data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine the effects of the crisis and recession on the wealth of White and Black families using graphical, cross section, and panel empirical models. While other studies have measured the short-term effects of the crisis and recession on American household wealth, we are able to look at longer-term wealth effects by incorporating data from the recently released 2015 wave of the PSID. Our results indicate that the negative consequences of the economic downturn on Black families’ wealth were severe and longer-lasting than for White families.

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Notes

  1. A good source of the timeline of the US financial crisis is available at the St. Louis Federal Reserve site: https://www.stlouisfed.org/financial-crisis/full-timeline. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the US recession as beginning in December 2007 and ending in June 2009. See: http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

  2. While our focus is on wealth differences, there is also a related literature on income differences. Please see Gradin (2014), Hoover et al. (2018), and Nau and Soener (2017) for examples of the type of work being done in this area.

  3. An excellent recent study using both descriptive as well as OLS and decomposition techniques to examine the full range of possible factors to explain the Black-White as well as White-Hispanic wealth gaps generally is in Thompson and Suarez (2015). The authors find the Black-White gap has been increasing recently and attribute a significant portion of the wealth gap to differences in asset holdings. These are driven largely by observable factors such as standard demographic factors, income, home ownership, and types of financial holdings. Interested readers are encouraged to read Thompson and Suarez (2015) for more.

  4. The PSID allows up to four responses for race type of the head. For someone who listed more than one race, we assign that person only the race that aligns with his first choice.

  5. There are 221 observations that had heads switch from Black to White at least once during the relevant time period.

  6. From 2011 to 2013, the gap drops slightly from 7.6 to 7.2, but then rises to 7.7 in 2015

  7. As we can see from the relatively large standard deviations in Table 2, wealth is highly skewed. Hence, we report median values in Table 13 in the Appendix. Using medians as our statistic of choice does not change generally what we observe over time: that the ratio between White and Black wealth has increased from the beginning of the recession (2007, ratio of 8.6) to our most current wave (2015, ratio of 10.8). Using medians also paints a more bleak picture of wealth inequality in the country, as Table 2 shows a ratio of 6 in 2007 that increases to 7.7 by 2015. Hence, given that using means does not change our overall results, and also because the components of wealth we focus on (real estate equity, stock) have a median of $0 in many of our waves (particularly for Blacks), we will report means in the remainder of the paper.

  8. This is a consistent finding in the literature. See, for example, Shapiro et al. (2013) and Blau and Graham (1990)

  9. The PSID also asks respondents about “other real estate,” apart from primary home equity. This category includes the value of a second home, land, rental real estate, and land contracts minus any debt owed. Because assets in this category were likely affected by the housing bust, we also measure “total real estate” wealth by adding primary home equity and equity in other real estate together. We report mean total real estate equity in Table 14 in the Appendix. Aside from the fact that the percentage of total wealth held in this asset is larger for both Blacks and Whites than for primary home equity only (Table 3), the trend over time for the White/Black ratio is similar. Furthermore, the percentage of total wealth in real estate for Whites remains everywhere lower than for Blacks in all years, which is also evident when comparing the mean value. This finding is most likely due to a lower participation in the financial markets for Blacks.

  10. We choose 2009 as the beginning of the post-crisis period since by mid-2009, the worst of the financial crisis had passed (as measured by such crisis indicators as the TED Spread and A2/P2 Spread for Non-Financial Commercial Paper). Additionally, the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009. Because PSID interviews are conducted between March and November of survey years, there are potentially some interviews in 2009 that were conducted before financial conditions had completely recovered and the economy begun its expansion. We consider this potential overlap of periods to be of relatively minor concern.

  11. A dummy variable is included for each state, excluding one. These serve to control for characteristics specific to each state (e.g., tax laws, regulations).

  12. The inverse hyperbolic sine transformation is defined as log(yi + (yi2 + 1)1/2), and with the exception of very small values of y is approximately equal to log(2yi) or log(2) + log(yi). For interpretation purposes, we can treat the dependent variable which is transformed according to this transformation exactly as we would a standard logarithmic dependent variable. For those interested in more on this transformation, please see Burbidge et al. (1988), MacKinnon and Magee (1990), and Pence (2006). We would like to thank Frances Woolley for making us aware of this via her Worthwhile Canadian Initiative blog.

  13. Random effects estimation is another option we consider. However, a Hausman test strongly rejects the use of random effects. Statistics from this test are available upon request.

  14. Note that in the case of the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine transformation, we would interpret our results as we would a model where the dependent variable is natural logged. Hence, the coefficient estimate is interpreted based on (eβ − 1) ∙ 100 which in our case is (e−1.556 − 1) ∙ 100 =  − 78.9 which is interpreted as a  78.9% reduction in wealth.

  15. Sex and level of education were captured in our previous model by the inclusion of fixed effects. Education serves as a predictor of wealth, although it can sometimes be difficult to disentangle its effect from that of income effects. Individuals with more education can earn more income, and in turn save and accumulate higher wealth (Gittleman and Wolff 2000). Killewald et al. (2017) suggest that, in fact, education may even be a proxy for past income streams.

  16. As before, for all three cases, we limited the sample to include only families who had positive wealth in 2007.

  17. We note that we also ran these regression models without the inclusion family income since the crisis and recession may have also affected wealth via a change in household income. The results from these additional models indicate that Black families were even more likely than White families to have experienced negative on effects on their wealth, suggesting that an income effect might also have played a role in the wealth differences we see between races.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank Colin Jones for valuable research assistance and seminar participants at Lakehead University for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.

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Correspondence to Ryan Compton.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 13 Median total wealth
Table 14 Total real estate equity

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Compton, R., Giedeman, D. & Muller, L. Racial Differentials in the Wealth Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession. J Econ Race Policy 1, 126–141 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41996-018-0015-7

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