Abstract
Evolution proceeds in large part by the establishment of mutations in the genome of organisms, but even an advantageous mutation may be lost by chance. The probability of such loss is the extinction probability of an individual with a random lifetime reproductive success (LRS). We show here that the traditional approximation of extinction probability in terms of the mean and variance of LRS does not always apply, because the LRS has a skewed, often multimodal, distribution. To exemplify distinct life history patters, we use the Hadza and Pacific Chinook salmon. The traditional approximation overestimates the exact extinction probability from complete LRS distribution. An accurate analysis of the distribution of LRS strengthens our ability to successfully analyze evolution.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.
References
Charlesworth B, Williamson JA (1975) The probability of survival of a mutant gene in an age-structured population and implications for the evolution of life-histories. Genet Res 26(1):1–10
Crow JF, Motoo K et al (1970) Introduction to population genetics theory
Ewens WJ (2012) Mathematical population genetics 1: theoretical introduction, vol 27. Springer Science & Business Media
Fisher RA (1930) The genetical theory of natural selection. Clarendon Press, Oxford
Hartl DL, Clark AG (2007) Principles of population genetics
Jones N, Blurton G et al (1992) Demography of the Hadza, an increasing and high density population of savanna foragers. Am J Phys Anthropol 89(2):159–181
Kareiva P, Michelle M, McClure M (2000) Recovery and management options for spring/summer chinook salmon in the Columbia River Basin. Science 290(5493):977–979
Mode CJ (1971) Multitype branching processes: theory and applications, vol 34. American Elsevier Publishing Company
Ratner S, Russell L, Roper BB (1997) Population viability analysis of Spring Chinook Salmon in the South Umpqua River, Oregon. Conserv Biol 11(4):879–889. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2387323(issn: 08888892, 15231739)
Tuljapurkar S, Steiner UK, Hecht OS (2009) Dynamic heterogeneity in life histories. Ecol Lett 12(1):93–106
Tuljapurkar S et al (2020) Skewed distributions of lifetime reproductive success: beyond mean and variance. Ecol Lett 23(4):748–756. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13467
van Daalen SF, Caswell H (2017) Lifetime reproductive output: individual stochasticity, variance, and sensitivity analysis. Theor Ecol 10(3):355–374
Wolak ME et al (2018) Sex-specific additive genetic variances and correlations for fitness in a song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population subject to natural immigration and inbreeding. Evolution 72(10):2057–2075
World Bank (2021) Fertility rate, total (births per woman). World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Tuljapurkar, S., Zuo, W. Mutations and the Distribution of Lifetime Reproductive Success. J Indian Inst Sci 102, 1269–1275 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41745-022-00297-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41745-022-00297-x