Decadal Changes in Atmospheric Methane Emissions in the Eastern Himalayan Region: Source Apportionment and Impact Assessment

Saikia, Arshini; Pathak, Binita; Singh, Praveen K.; Bhuyan, Pradip K.; Adhikary, Bhupesh

doi:10.1007/s41742-022-00501-x

Decadal Changes in Atmospheric Methane Emissions in the Eastern Himalayan Region: Source Apportionment and Impact Assessment

Research Paper
Published: 28 December 2022

Volume 17, article number 10, (2023)
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Arshini Saikia ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0892-6265¹,
Binita Pathak^1,2,
Praveen K. Singh^3,4,
Pradip K. Bhuyan¹ &
…
Bhupesh Adhikary³

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Abstract

Methane (CH₄), the second-largest greenhouse gas in terms of radiative forcing, is on the rise in the Eastern Himalayan region (EHR), as indicated by multiple datasets (CAMS ~ 0.087 Tg Yr⁻¹, EDGAR v4.3.2 ~ 0.11 Tg Yr⁻¹, and RCP8.5 ~ 0.16 Tg Yr⁻¹). We found that the CH₄ trend over the EHR is stronger than the global trend due to increased emissions from anthropogenic sources. From 1990 to 2016, CH₄ emissions from anthropogenic activities and wetlands increased by 20% and 10% over the EHR. The land-use land-cover (LULC) change reveals a loss of ~ 0.42% of forest and an increase of 0.018% of urban built-up, 0.098% total wetland, and 0.033% of water-bodies coverage from 2001 to 2018. Future projections show a twofold (32.7 Tg CH₄ Yr⁻¹) increase in CH₄ emissions by 2050 and up to a threefold (~ 48.2 Tg CH₄ Yr⁻¹) by the year 2100 from the base year level (14.6 Tg CH₄ Yr⁻¹) in 2000. Ambient concentrations of CH₄ measured in Dibrugarh and the CAMS reanalysis data set from March 2014 to February 2015 show the maximum in December (~ 4485 and ~ 1981 ppb, respectively), while the minimum concentrations in July (~ 1155 ppb and ~ 976 ppb). The calculated global/EHR RF due to the CH₄ for 2006–2100 is higher (0.0093 Wm⁻² Yr⁻¹/0.0095 Wm⁻² Yr⁻¹) than the historical (0.0038 Wm⁻² Yr⁻¹/0.0037 Wm⁻² Yr⁻¹) during 1851–2005. The resultant land surface temperature increase induced solely by CH₄ is higher over the EHR (~ 0.0062 °C Yr⁻¹) than the global (~ 0.0036 °C Yr⁻¹).

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Article Highlights

The decadal CH₄ emissions and trends on the regional scale are stronger than the global scale.
Anthropogenic source contribution to increasing CH₄ emissions over the Eastern Himalaya Region is more than natural sources.
CH₄-induced radiative forcing and resultant temperature trends are stronger over EHR than the global trend.
The increasing temperature trends during 1981-2019 decreases snow cover area and snow water equivalent, more substantially regionally than worldwide.
The predicted global radiative forcing and temperature trends are higher than historical trends.

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Trends in atmospheric methane concentrations since 1990 were driven and modified by anthropogenic emissions

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Data Availability

The datasets used in this study are available upon reasonable request from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

The Indian Space Research Organization provides financial support for establishing the trace gas monitoring laboratory at Dibrugarh University under the ISRO GBP Environmental Observatory project. Arshini Saikia is thankful to the ISRO GBP Environmental Observatory project for providing a fellowship. Binita Pathak and Pradip K Bhuyan thank DST for partial support under its HICAB initiative. ICIMOD authors would like to acknowledge that this study is partially supported by core funds of ICIMOD contributed by the governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Norway, and Pakistan, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Special thanks to Mohammad Iqbal Mead, Regional Programme Manager, ICIMOD, for reviewing and editing the manuscript. The views and interpretations in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily attributable to their associated institutions. The authors thank Nicolas Bellouin for his guidance in using CAMS radiative forcing data. The authors also thank ECMWF CDS (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home), Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), and EDGAR inventory (http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/).

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Centre for Atmospheric Studies, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh, 786004, India
Arshini Saikia, Binita Pathak & Pradip K. Bhuyan
Department of Physics, Dibrugarh University, Dibrugarh, 786 004, India
Binita Pathak
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Khumaltar, G.P.O. Box 3226, Lalitpur, Kathmandu, Nepal
Praveen K. Singh & Bhupesh Adhikary
Centre of Excellence in Disaster Mitigation and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, 247667, India
Praveen K. Singh

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Saikia, A., Pathak, B., Singh, P.K. et al. Decadal Changes in Atmospheric Methane Emissions in the Eastern Himalayan Region: Source Apportionment and Impact Assessment. Int J Environ Res 17, 10 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-022-00501-x

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Received: 07 July 2022
Revised: 06 October 2022
Accepted: 21 December 2022
Published: 28 December 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-022-00501-x

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Decadal Changes in Atmospheric Methane Emissions in the Eastern Himalayan Region: Source Apportionment and Impact Assessment