Study Region
The state of Brandenburg is located in north-eastern Germany, covers 29,640 km2 and is a heavily agricultural state, with approximately 45% of its area comprised of agricultural land (Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg 2016)—making it an ideal setting to study landscape composition. 12% of Brandenburg’s agricultural area is dedicated to organic agriculture, which is relatively high compared to other German states, and has been steadily increasing (MLUK 2019). Nevertheless, the utilized agricultural area has remained constant, with about 77% cropland and 23% permanent grassland (Troegel and Schulz 2018). Brandenburg completely surrounds Germany’s capital city of Berlin (Fig. 1), where land use and its composition are heavily influenced by strong urbanization trends such as demand for residential land in the suburban areas. Demand for regional food production in the neighbouring state has been growing, as has the use of cropland for renewable energy production (Gutzler et al. (2015), leading to considerable increases in maize production for subsidized biogas fermentation in Brandenburg (Federal Environmental Ministry 2000).
Brandenburg’s agricultural land exhibits a high share of low-quality soils; almost two-thirds are sandy and sandy-loamy soils. According to Gutzler et al. (2015), this situation, paired with low rainfall (on average, less than 600 mm/year), makes agricultural production challenging. This is one reason why Brandenburg farmers either produce in the organic niche, benefiting from the high prices paid in Berlin for regional, organic food, or apply a high level of technology, including heavy-duty machinery and intensive use of fertilizers and agrochemicals (Gutzler et al. 2015). Maize replaced rye as the main crop in 2013, followed by wheat and rapeseed (Troegel and Schulz 2018). As in all eastern German states, agricultural in Brandenburg is dominated by large farm enterprises with an average size of approximately 250 hectares, four times the German average (Gutzler et al. 2015; Troegel and Schulz 2018). Livestock production has been in continuous decline in Brandenburg; according to the most recent available agricultural census, its livestock density in 2010 was a low 0.4 livestock units (LU) per hectare in comparison to other federal states, such as Lower Saxony’s 1.1 LU per hectare (Statistisches Bundesamt 2019). We, therefore, focus on cropland and grassland in our analysis. Furthermore, in contrast to Uthes et al. (2020), we propose an areal characterisation of landscapes instead of farming systems where livestock numbers are more relevant.
As a base for our indicator and cluster calculation, we created a hexagonal grid with a cell size of 10 km2 (N = 2 836, Fig. 1). The size of the cells captured the landscape level and the spatial configuration of plots within each cell (mean plot size = 7.9 ha). Since administrative areas vary in size and form, the hexagonal grid provides a smoother surface for analysis (Birch et al. 2007; Schindler et al. 2008) and has been applied in studies using landscape metrics for characterizing agricultural landscapes (Griffith et al. 2000). We selected only those cells that are located entirely within the Brandenburg state, including overlaps with Berlin administrative areas.
Data
We used plot-based information on the cultivation of agriculture in Brandenburg in 2018 from the IACS to identify agricultural characteristics. Farms apply for area-based payments to ensure income support according to EU CAP regulations, managed and controlled in a standardised way in all EU member states through IACS. In Brandenburg, the baseline map for the registration is a digital cadastre of field blocks established in 2015. The field block cadastre covers the agricultural area in Brandenburg that is eligible for EU subsidies and is updated based on orthophotos. A field block is a coherent agricultural area surrounded by permanent borders (e.g. roads, paths, trees) with a predominantly uniform primary land use. One or more farmers can use a field block, meaning that the area of one field block may be split between each farmer who applies for subsidies. As a result, the georeferenced agricultural land use data covers only those plots for which farmers applied for subsidies in 2018. The outlines of the plots are generally aligned with the underlying field blocks, but they may have been edited by the farmer due to the specific land use in a specific year. Hence, the size and outlines of plots registered for subsidies can change over time. In addition to agricultural use at the plot level, landscape elements located in a field block, such as hedges, rows of trees and single trees, are also registered. In Brandenburg, landscape elements were registered and located with a single point until 2016, but now they are digitised with spatial outlines (e.g. groups of trees). We, therefore, focused on the categories of grassland, cropland and landscape element, which were assigned based on cultivated crops (Kulturart) for 2018. These landscape elements include ecological priority areas for which farms can get extra support within the EU CAP. However, we did not include landscape elements in the final cluster analysis. All subcategories were then aggregated to the categories: cropland, grassland and landscape elements (Fig. 1).
To account for specific types of arable land use, we identified plots that were likely to have been cultivated without crop rotation and used maize as a specific crop type. We also included information about whether a plot is under organic or conventional management, both of which are indicated in the IACS data.
In addition to IACS data, we used the Open Street Map (OSM) data and regional planning data (settlement locations) and soil quality (Fig. 1). We used the OSM data for all building footprints in Brandenburg from September 2019 to assess the degree of urbanisation in each hexagon. OSM is an open-source, crowd-sourced mapping platform that has high coverage and good quality in countries such as Germany (Fan et al. 2014; Jokar Arsanjani et al. 2015). We used April 2019 settlement data from the Landesentwicklungsplan Hauptstadtregion Berlin Brandenburg for calculating the mean Euclidean distance to settlements for each cell. The Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (2014) provides a soil quality rating (SQR) on a 0–100 point scale (Mueller et al. 2007), which indicates a rough estimate for crop yield potential. Soil quality points suggest the potential productivity and are an official measure in Germany that was constructed to combine pedologic, scientific and agronomic considerations within one measure. A low (high) number represents very low (high) productivity (BMJV 2007; Scheffer et al. 2010).
Indicator Calculation, Metrics and Spatial Patterns
To answer RQ1, we selected a set of landscape metrics to characterise agricultural landscapes based on a literature review according to three categories (Table 1).
Table 1 Metrics to describe landscape structure, diversity and management with description of indicators, calculation of metrics and data sources Landscape structure: median plot size (ha), edge density (calculated as a share of the total hexagon area in km/10 km2), number of buildings (N) and mean distance to settlements (km).
Landscape diversity: agriculture share of total hexagon area (%), Shannon Diversity Index (SDI), share of landscape elements in a total agricultural area (%).
Management: share of organic of total agricultural area (%), share of cropland of total agricultural area (%), share of maize of total agricultural area (%), soil quality (values from 0–100).
We calculated the respective indicator values for the year 2018 at the aggregated level of the hexagons. We focused on measures to describe agricultural land use, management, agricultural intensity and diversity and spatial configuration.
Plot size captures the spatial configuration of plots and is frequently used to characterise agricultural landscapes (Dengler 2009; van der Zanden et al. 2016). We calculated median plot size within hexagons from the reported management units in the IACS data by using the centroid of the plots, considering each plot only once even though it might have overlapped between two cells.
The ecological role of habitat diversity and plot edges for farmland biodiversity (including functional biodiversity) has been demonstrated by several authors (Benton et al. 2003; Burel and Baudry 2005; Weissteiner et al. 2016). We, therefore, calculated edge densities and the SDI. Edge density characterises the fragmentation of the agricultural landscape, i.e. with increasing edge density, the number of farmland patches increase and their patch size decreases (Su et al. 2014).
Organic agriculture is a production type in which mineral fertiliser and synthetic pesticide usage are subject to stricter regulations than in conventional agriculture (Gabriel et al. 2010). Because organic production is considered less harmful to the environment and key for more sustainable agricultural production, it has been included as a share of organic agriculture as an indicator.
To differentiate between cropland and grassland, we included the share of cropland of the total agricultural area, following the argument that most grasslands in eastern Germany are managed rather extensively (Matzdorf et al. 2008). Though grasslands can also be managed intensively, particularly in regions with high livestock densities, Brandenburg is characterised by few ruminant livestock and rather extensively used grasslands under agro-environmental measures, whereby farmers receive additional compensation payments through the EU CAP for extensively-managed grasslands (Matzdorf et al. 2008).
We measured cropland intensity by the share of maize that is likely to be used for biogas and cultivated as a long-term, self-following crop, i.e. without crop rotation (Gutzler et al. 2015; Lüker-Jans et al. 2016). We included all maize types (i.e. silage maize and corn maize) in our analysis. According to the German expert group for renewable energy (FNR 2013), the expansion of maize monocultures (no mixed cultivation on a plot) is expected to be on par with the intensification of crop production (Vergara and Lakes 2019). Areas with a high share of maize may indicate intensive production of crops for biogas, which often comes at the expense of food production areas (Grundmann and Klauss 2014; Lüker-Jans et al. 2016).
The SDI, as a measure of agrobiodiversity, is widely used (Uthes et al. 2020; Vaz et al. 2014). It considers the abundance of different crop types. We calculated the SDI for all listed cultivated plants within the IACS data (N = 158) according to the following formula:
$${\text{SDI}} = - \mathop \sum \limits_{i = 1}^{n} p_{i } lnp_{i}$$
where
\(p_{i}\) = share (%) of crop/crop and usage i in a total agricultural area
\(lnp_{i}\) = natural logarithm of pi
The diversity measure equals minus the sum, across all crop types, of the proportional abundance of each crop type, multiplied by that proportion (Griffith et al. 2000).
According to Uthes et al. (2020), landscape elements such as hedge or tree rows are important features for a diverse landscape structure. We thus calculated the share of landscape elements in the total agricultural area within each hexagon.
We used the SQR as a measure for yield potential, which has often been used in land market analyses, such as those of Hüttel et al. (2016) and Ritter et al. (2015).
To assess the degree of urbanisation, we calculated the number of buildings in each hexagon and the mean distance to settlements. According to Su et al. (2011), proximity to urban centres parallels the intensity of urbanisation and the decrease in human influences on the environment. Additionally, Piorr et al. (2018) emphasise that agricultural landscapes ‘differ in the way they are influenced by the proximity to urban areas, being part of functional urban–rural linkages, urban pressures and opportunities’, e.g. regarding the farming systems and the involvement of (urban) communities.
For visualization of the results, we classified the metrics share of agriculture, cropland, maize and organic agriculture by equal intervals in 20% steps. For the indicators related to the number of buildings, distance to settlements, soil quality, median plot size, edge density and the SDI, we used natural breaks (jenks) for classification.
To identify spatial patterns, we calculated the spatial autocorrelation values for all single metrics with continuous values. We used Global Moran’s I statistics, which characterise the spatial dependency of values between the hexagons (Moran 1950). We used all six neighbours (Queen’s contiguity) of each hexagon. The value of Moran’s I ranges from − 1 (perfect negative autocorrelation) to 1 (perfect positive autocorrelation), with 0 indicating spatial randomness (Moran 1950).
Cluster Analysis to Identify Agricultural Landscape Types and Spatial Concentrations
To answer RQ2, we applied a two-step cluster analysis using selected metrics to identify different types of agricultural landscapes in Brandenburg.
Lausch and Herzog (2002) emphasise that when working with landscape metrics, one is confronted with the question of which indicators are relevant for the area and the problem under investigation. We, therefore, determined Spearman’s correlation coefficients to reduce redundancies (Lausch and Herzog 2002). After the Spearman correlation analysis, eight selected indicators showed values < 0.4 (Fig. 9 in Appendix). However, we relied on seven input variables for the cluster analysis, having excluded the share of landscape elements. This indicator was not included because the values are generally very low in the hexagonal grids, with low variance except for a few outliers (65% of all hexagons have a < 1% share), and if included in the cluster analysis, the results showed no variance within clusters. The final cluster analysis input indicators included soil quality, number of buildings, edge density, shares of organic agriculture, cropland and maize, and median plot size for each hexagon in 2018 (Fig. 2).
We followed the approach of Lüker-Jans et al. (2016), that characterised agricultural land use patterns using k-means clustering. Here, we applied a two-step cluster analysis because of its ability to deal with large datasets, including variables that are not normally distributed, and the possibility of automatically determining the optimum number of clusters (Chiu et al. 2001). In the first pre-clustering step, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was calculated for each cluster, which was then used to generate an initial estimate of the number of clusters. The second step refined the initial estimate by determining the greatest change in distance between the two closest clusters in each hierarchical clustering stage (Chiu et al. 2001). We note that 178 hexagons could not be clustered due to missing soil quality data in those cells; consequently, no type could be assigned.
For goodness assessment of the cluster number, the model fit was evaluated using the silhouette coefficient, which is a measure of the cohesion and separation of clusters. A value above 0.2 indicates a fair cluster quality (Tkaczynski 2017).
Since the cluster values are categorical, we calculated the join count to determine the degree of spatial concentration or dispersion among a set of spatially adjacent polygons (Plant 2012). To calculate the join count for each cluster value, we set the reference cluster value to 1 and all other cluster values to 0.