Skip to main content


Log in

Where will Invasive Plants Colonize in Response to Climate Change: Predicting the Invasion of Galinsoga quadriradiata in China

  • Research Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Environmental Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript


Galinsoga quadriradiata, an annual herbaceous plant originating in Central and South America, has caused great harm to agriculture and natural communities in China recently. However, the distribution and influence of this invader are poorly documented. It is also unclear how climate change will affect the expansion of G. quadriradiata. In this study, we built a series of maximum entropy (Maxent) models to predict the potential distribution areas of G. quadriradiata under current and future (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) climatic scenarios using six uncorrelated bioclimatic variables (obtained from the fifth report of the IPCC) and 274 occurrences. The Maxent model obtained high AUC value of 0.960, and the prediction showed that highly suitable areas for G. quadriradiata mainly locate in central, eastern, southwestern, and southern China. In the context of climate change, its suitable area will tend to contract in the future and disappear in southern and eastern China, but will expand in northeastern China. Overall, by the end of the century, its suitable area will be reduced by 12.1% and move northward in China. Our study suggests that G. quadriradiata has high invasive potential currently; however, to some extent, ongoing climate change will inhibit its expansion in China. In addition, the invasion risk of G. quadriradiata in northeastern China will continuously increase, keeping pace with global climate change in the coming decades, while the invasion risk in central, southwestern, and eastern China will stay continuously. Urgent preventative measures against G. quadriradiata invasion are necessary in these areas.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others


Download references


We thank Dr. Zengqiang Qian. This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31600445, 31570425 and 11671243), the Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China (2016JQ3009), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (GK201703036, 2017CSY016 and 2017CSY020), and the fund of State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen University (SKLBC14KF04).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations


Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Gang Liu or Zhi-Hong Zhu.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

Electronic Supplementary Material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (XLSX 176 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yang, YB., Liu, G., Shi, X. et al. Where will Invasive Plants Colonize in Response to Climate Change: Predicting the Invasion of Galinsoga quadriradiata in China. Int J Environ Res 12, 929–938 (2018).

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: