Abstract
The vulnerability of wheat to climate change is accelerating at an increasing rate. This paper reviews the climate change trends, climate change impacts, quantification methods and adaption options in the arid and semi-arid environment. The temperature of mid-latitude of Asia may increase 2.4 °C during the wheat season. Different studies reported the reduction of yield in future climate by 10–50% with current production technologies and varieties. Mechanistic crop models, statistical models, arithmetic models and field experiments have been used in different environments to quantify the climate change impacts and develop adaptations. Wheat is predominantly cultivated in arid and semi-arid environments of South Asia under irrigated and rain-fed conditions. The arid environment makes wheat more vulnerable to climate change as compared to semi-arid due to low moisture availability. In future, different strategies can be adapted to the production system to offset the climate change impacts on wheat. Agronomic and breeding adaptations potentially can neutralize or even enhance wheat grain yield in future climatic scenarios.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ahmad A et al (2015) Impact of climate change on the rice–wheat cropping system of Pakistan. Handbook of climate change and agroecosystems: the agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project integrated crop and economic assessments, Part 2. Imperial College Press, London, pp 219–258
Ahmed M, Fayyaz-ul-Hassan (2015) Response of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) quality traits and yield to sowing date. PLOS One 10(4):1–16
Ainsworth EA, Rogers A (2007) The response of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to rising [CO2]: mechanisms and environmental interactions. Plant Cell Environ 30:258–270
Alexander L et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 111:D05109
Ali Z, Mahalakshmi V, Singh M, Ortiz-Ferrara G, Peacock J (1994) Variation in cardinal temperatures for germination among wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes. Ann Appl Biol 125:367–375
Ali MA, Ali M, Din Q (2004) Determination of grain yield of different wheat varieties as influenced by planting dates in agroecological conditions of Vehari. Pak J Life Soc Sci 2:5–8
Amthor JS (2001) Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration. Field Crops Res 73:1–34
Ananda N, Vadlani PV, Prasad PV (2011) Evaluation of drought and heat stressed grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) for ethanol production. Ind Crops Prod 33:779–782
Andarzian B, Hoogenboom G, Bannayan M, Shirali M, Andarzian B (2015) Determining optimum sowing date of wheat using CSM-CERES-Wheat model. J Saudi Soc Agric Sci 14:189–199
Anwar MR, O’leary G, McNeil D, Hossain H, Nelson R (2007) Climate change impact on rainfed wheat in south-eastern Australia. Field Crops Res 104:139–147
Ashfaq M, Zulfiqar F, Sarwar I, Quddus MA, Baig IA (2011) Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in mixed cropping system of Punjab. Soil Environ 30:110–114
Aslani F, Mehrvar M (2012) Responses of wheat genotypes as affected by different sowing dates. Asian J Agric Sci 4:72–74
Asseng S, Foster I, Turner NC (2011) The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Glob Change Biol 17:997–1012
Asseng S et al (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nat Clim Change 3:827–832
Asseng S et al (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Change 5:143–147
Atkinson NJ, Urwin PE (2012) The interaction of plant biotic and abiotic stresses: from genes to the field. J Exp Bot 63:3523–3543
Baloch MS, Shah ITH, Nadim MA, Khan MI, Khakwani AA (2010) Effect of seeding density and planting time on growth and yield attributes of wheat. J Anim Plant Sci 20:239–240
Barnabás B, Jäger K, Fehér A (2008) The effect of drought and heat stress on reproductive processes in cereals. Plant Cell Environ 31:11–38
Bashir MU, Akbar N, Iqbal A, Zaman H (2010) Effect of different sowing dates on yield and yield components of direct seeded coarse rice (Oryza sativa L.). Pak J Agri Sci 47:361–365
Batts G, Ellis R, Morison J, Nkemka P, Gregory P, Hadley P (1998) Yield and partitioning in crops of contrasting cultivars of winter wheat in response to CO2 and temperature in field studies using temperature gradient tunnels. J Agric Sci 130:17–27
Blum A (1986) The effect of heat stress on wheat leaf and ear photosynthesis. J Exp Bot 37:111–118
Blum A (1997) Improving wheat grain filling under stress by stem reserve mobilisation. In: Wheat: prospects for global improvement. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 135–141
Blum A, Sinmena B, Mayer J, Golan G, Shpiler L (1994) Stem reserve mobilisation supports wheat-grain filling under heat stress. Funct Plant Biol 21:771–781
Blum A, Klueva N, Nguyen H (2001) Wheat cellular thermotolerance is related to yield under heat stress. Euphytica 117:117–123
Bunce JA (2000) Acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature in eight cool and warm climate herbaceous C3 species: temperature dependence of parameters of a biochemical photosynthesis model. Photosynth Res 63:59–67
Bunce JA (2001) Direct and acclimatory responses of stomatal conductance to elevated carbon dioxide in four herbaceous crop species in the field. Glob Change Biol 7:323–331
Burke M, Lobell D (2010) Food security and adaptation to climate change: What do we know? In: Climate change and food security. Springer, Dordrecht pp 133–153
Calderini D, Abeledo L, Savin R, Slafer GA (1999) Effect of temperature and carpel size during pre-anthesis on potential grain weight in wheat. J Agric Sci 132:453–459
Challinor AJ, Ewert F, Arnold S, Simelton E, Fraser E (2009) Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. J Exp Bot 60:2775–2789
Chowdhury S, Wardlaw I (1978) The effect of temperature on kernel development in cereals. Aust J Agric Res 29:205–223
Ciaffi M, Tozzi L, Borghi B, Corbellini M, Lafiandra D (1996) Effect of heat shock during grain filling on the gluten protein composition of bread wheat. J Cereal Sci 24:91–100
Di Falco S, Veronesi M, Yesuf M (2011) Does adaptation to climate change provide food security? microperspective from Ethiopia. Am J Agric Econ 93(3):829–846
Dias A, Lidon F (2009) Evaluation of grain filling rate and duration in bread and durum wheat, under heat stress after anthesis. J Agron Crop Sci 195:137–147
Dias A, Semedo J, Ramalho J, Lidon F (2011) Bread and durum wheat under heat stress: a comparative study on the photosynthetic performance. J Agron Crop Sci 197:50–56
Edreira JR, Carpici EB, Sammarro D, Otegui M (2011) Heat stress effects around flowering on kernel set of temperate and tropical maize hybrids. Field Crops Res 123:62–73
El-Gizawy NKB (2009) Effect of planting date and fertilizer application on yield of wheat under no till system. World J Agric Sci 5:777–783
Erda L, Wei X, Hui J, Yinlong X, Yue L, Liping B, Liyong X (2005) Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 360:2149–2154
Farooq M, Bramley H, Palta JA, Siddique KH (2011) Heat stress in wheat during reproductive and grain-filling phases. Crit Rev Plant Sci 30:491–507
Fernando N et al (2014) Intra-specific variation of wheat grain quality in response to elevated [CO2] at two sowing times under rain-fed and irrigation treatments. J Cereal Sci 59:137–144
Ferris R, Ellis R, Wheeler T, Hadley P (1998) Effect of high temperature stress at anthesis on grain yield and biomass of field-grown crops of wheat. Ann Bot 82:631–639
Fischer R (1985) Number of kernels in wheat crops and the influence of solar radiation and temperature. J Agric Sci 105:447–461
Ft Engledow, Wadham S (1923) Investigations on yield in the cereals 1. J Agric Sci 13:390–439
Godfray HCJ et al (2010) Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327:812–818
Gorst A, Groom B, Dehlavi A (2015) Crop productivity and adaptation to climate change in Pakistan Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working paper, Islamabad Pakistan
Haider MM, Ahmad A, Khaliq T, Shahbaz M (2015) Simulating the effects of sowing time on growth and yield of wheat in arid environment using APSIM-model. Appl Sci Bus Econ 2:1–7
Hatfield JL et al (2011) Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agron J 103:351–370
Hays DB, Do JH, Mason RE, Morgan G, Finlayson SA (2007) Heat stress induced ethylene production in developing wheat grains induces kernel abortion and increased maturation in a susceptible cultivar. Plant Sci 172:1113–1123
Hennessy K et al (2008) An assessment of the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of exceptional climatic events. Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra
Howarth C (2005) Genetic improvements of tolerance to high temperature. In: Ashraf M, Harris PJC (eds) Abiotic stresses—plant resistance through breeding and molecular approaches. The Haworth Press, New York, pp 277–300
Hunsaker D, Hendrey G, Kimball B, Lewin K, Mauney J, Nagy J (1994) Cotton evapotranspiration under field conditions with CO2 enrichment and variable soil moisture regimes. Agric For Meteorol 70:247–258
IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds)] Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp 1535
Iqbal MM, Hussain SS, Goheer MA, Sultana H, Salik KM, Mudasser M, Khan AM (2009) Climate change and wheat production in Pakistan: calibration, validation and application of CERES-Wheat model Islamabad: Global Change Impact Studies Centre Islamabad Pakistan
Iqbal MA et al (2014) Evaluation of the FAO AquaCrop model for winter wheat on the North China Plain under deficit irrigation from field experiment to regional yield simulation. Agric Water Manag 135:61–72
Janjua PZ, Samad G, Khan NU, Nasir M (2010) Impact of climate change on wheat production: a case study of Pakistan [with Comments]. Pak Dev Rev 799–822
Jenner C (1994) Starch synthesis in the kernel of wheat under high temperature conditions. Funct Plant Biol 21:791–806
Karl TR (2009) Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, UK
Kassie BT, Hengsdijk H, Rötter R, Kahiluoto H, Asseng S, Van Ittersum M (2013) Adapting to climate variability and change: experiences from cereal-based farming in the Central Rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia. Water Environ 52:1115–1131
Khan SU, Gurmani AR, Qayyum A, Khan H (2013) Heat tolerance evaluation of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes based on some potential heat tolerance indicators J Chem Soc Pak 35:647–653
Kimball B et al (1999) Free-air CO2 enrichment and soil nitrogen effects on energy balance and evapotranspiration of wheat. Water Resour Res 35:1179–1190
Kimball BA, Conley MM, Wang S, Lin X, Luo C, Morgan J, Smith D (2008) Infrared heater arrays for warming ecosystem field plots. Glob Change Biol 14:309–320
Kimball BA, White JW, Wall G, Ottman MJ (2016) Wheat responses to a wide range of temperatures: the hot serial cereal experiment. Improv Model Tools Assess Clim Change Effects Crop Response 33–44
Kirschbaum MU (1995) The temperature dependence of soil organic matter decomposition, and the effect of global warming on soil organic C storage. Soil Biol Biochem 27:753–760
Lawlor DW, Mitchell RA (2000) Crop ecosystem responses to climatic change: wheat. Clim Change Glob Crop Product 57–80
Liu L, Wang E, Zhua Y, Tanga L, Cao W (2013) Effects of warming and autonomous breeding on the phenological development and grain yield of double-rice systems in China. Agric Ecosyst Environ 165:28–38
Liu B, Asseng S, Liu L, Tang L, Cao W, Zhu Y (2016) Testing the responses of four wheat crop models to heat stress at anthesis and grain filling. Glob Change Biol 22:1890–1903
Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcon WP, Naylor RL (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607–610
Lobell DB, Sibley A, Ortiz-Monasterio JI (2012) Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nat Clim Change 2:186–189
Ludwig F, Asseng S (2010) Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates. Agric Syst 103:127–136
Luo Q (2011) Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review. Clim Change 109:583–598
Mahmood Z, Wahla AJ, Mahmood R, Ali L, Nawaz M (2014) Impact of sowing time on yield parameters of selected wheat cultivars under rice-wheat cropping system of district Sheikhupura, Punjab. Biologia 60:31–36
Martre P et al (2015) Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one. Glob Change Biol 21:911–925
Matthews R et al (1995) A regional evaluation of the effect of future climate change on rice production in Asia Modeling the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia. CAB International, UK, pp 95–139
McMaster GS (1997) Phenology, development, and growth of the wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) shoot apex: a review. Adv Agron 59:63–118
Mitchell R, Mitchell V, Driscoll S, Franklin J, Lawlor D (1993) Effects of increased CO2 concentration and temperature on growth and yield of winter wheat at two levels of nitrogen application. Plant Cell Environ 16:521–529
Mulholland B, Craigon J, Black C, Colls J, Atherton J, Landon G (1998) Growth, light interception and yield responses of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grown under elevated CO2 and O3 in open-top chambers. Glob Change Biol 4:121–130
Müller C, Bondeau A, Popp A, Waha K, Fader M (2010) Climate change impacts on agricultural yields: background note to the World Development Report 2010 (Background Note) Germany: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Nasim W (2007) Modeling the growth, development, radiation use efficiency and yield of different wheat cultivars. Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad-Pakistan. (PP: 130)
Nasim W, Ahmad A, Wajid SA, Hussain A, Khaliq T, Usman M, Hammad HM, Sultana SR, Mubeen M, Ahmad S (2010) Simulation of different wheat cultivars under agro-ecological condition of Faisalabad-Pakistan. Crop Environ 1:44–48
Nasim W, Belhouchette H, Ahmad A, Rahman MH, Jabran K, Ullah K, Fahad S, Shakeel M, Hoogenboom G (2016) Modelling climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Punjab–Pakistan. Outlook Agric 45(1):39–45
Nelson GC et al (2009) Climate change: impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC
Ortiz-Monasterio J, Sayre K, Pena J, Fischer R (1994) Improving the nitrogen use efficiency of irrigated spring wheat in the Yaqui Valley of Mexico Trans 15th World Cong Soil Sci 5b:348–349
Palosuo T et al (2011) Simulation of winter wheat yield and its variability in different climates of Europe: a comparison of eight crop growth models. Eur J Agron 35:103–114
Parry ML, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G (2004) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14:53–67
Pérez P, Morcuende R, del Molino IMn, Martínez-Carrasco R (2005) Diurnal changes of Rubisco in response to elevated CO2, temperature and nitrogen in wheat grown under temperature gradient tunnels. Environ Exp Bot 53:13–27
Pinter P et al (2000) Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE): blower effects on wheat canopy microclimate and plant development. Agric For Meteorol 103:319–333
Plaut Z, Butow B, Blumenthal C, Wrigley C (2004) Transport of dry matter into developing wheat kernels and its contribution to grain yield under post-anthesis water deficit and elevated temperature. Field Crops Res 86:185–198
Porter JR, Gawith M (1999) Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. Eur J Agron 10:23–36
Prasad PV, Pisipati S, Mutava R, Tuinstra M (2008) Sensitivity of grain sorghum to high temperature stress during reproductive development. Crop Sci 48:1911–1917
Said A, Gul H, Saeed B, Haleema B, Badshah NL, Parveen L (2012) Response of wheat to different planting dates and seeding rates for yield and yield components. ARPN Res J Agric Biol Sci 7:138–140
Salvucci ME, Crafts-Brandner SJ (2004) Inhibition of photosynthesis by heat stress: the activation state of Rubisco as a limiting factor in photosynthesis. Physiol Plant 120:179–186
Shah WA, Bakht J, Ullah T, Khan AW, Zubair M, Khakwani AA (2006) Effect of sowing dates on the yield and yield components of different wheat varieties. J Agron 5:106–110
Shimono H, Nakamura H, Hasegawa T, Okada M (2013) Lower responsiveness of canopy evapotranspiration rate than of leaf stomatal conductance to open-air CO2 elevation in rice. Glob Change Biol 19:2444–2453
Sial MA, Arain MA, Khanzada S, Naqvi MH, Dahot MU, Nizamani NA (2005) Yield and quality parameters of wheat genotypes as affected by sowing dates and high temperature stress. Pak J Bot 37:575–584
Sinsawat V, Leipner J, Stamp P, Fracheboud Y (2004) Effect of heat stress on the photosynthetic apparatus in maize (Zea mays L.) grown at control or high temperature. Environ Exp Bot 52:123–129
Spiertz J, Hamer R, Xu H, Primo-Martin C, Don C, Van Der Putten P (2006) Heat stress in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.): effects on grain growth and quality traits. Eur J Agron 25:89–95
Stocker T (2014) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis: Working Group I contribution to the Fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
Stone P, Nicolas M (1994) Wheat cultivars vary widely in their responses of grain yield and quality to short periods of post-anthesis heat stress. Funct Plant Biol 21:887–900
Subedi K, Floyd C, Budhathoki C (1998) Cool temperature induced sterility in spring wheat (T. aestivum L.) in Nepal: variation among cultivars in response to sowing dates. Field Crops Res 55:141–151
Sultana H, Ali N, Iqbal MM, Khan AM (2009) Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change scenarios. Clim Change 94:123–142
Tahir M, Ali A, Nadeem MA, Hussain A, Khalid F (2009) Effect of different sowing dates on growth and yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties in district Jhang, Pakistan. Pak J Life Soc Sci 7:66–69
Tanveer SK, Hussain I, Sohail M, Kissana N, Abbas S (2003) Effects of different planting methods on yield and yield components of wheat. Asian J Plant Sci 2:811–813
Ul Islam S, Rehman N, Sheikh MM (2009) Future change in the frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model. Clim Change 94:35–45
Uprety D, Dwivedi N, Jain V, Mohan R (2002) Effect of elevated carbon dioxide concentration on the stomatal parameters of rice cultivars. Photosynthetica 40:315–319
Van Oijen M, Schapendonk A, Jansen M, Pot C, Maciorowski R (1999) Do open-top chambers overestimate the effects of rising CO2 on plants? An analysis using spring wheat. Glob Change Biol 5:411–421
Wahid A, Gelani S, Ashraf M, Foolad MR (2007) Heat tolerance in plants: an overview. Environ Exp Bot 61:199–223
Wajid A, Hussain K, Maqsiid M, Khaliq T, Ghaffar A (2007) Simulation modelling of growth, development and grain yield of wheat under semi-arid conditions in Pakistan. Pak J Agri Sci 44:194–199
Wassmann R et al (2009) Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation. Adv Agron 102:91–133
Webber H, Kahiluoto H, Rötter R, Ewert F (2014) Enhancing climate resilience of cropping systems. Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems. CABI, Bonn, pp 167–185
Weigel H-J, Manderscheid R (2012) Crop growth responses to free air CO2 enrichment and nitrogen fertilization: rotating barley, ryegrass, sugar beet and wheat. Eur J Agron 43:97–107
Wheeler T, Hong T, Ellis R, Batts G, Morison J, Hadley P (1996) The duration and rate of grain growth, and harvest index, of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in response to temperature and CO2. J Exp Bot 47:623–630
White JW, Hoogenboom G, Kimball BA, Wall GW (2011) Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production. Field Crops Res 124:357–368
Wollenweber B, Porter J, Schellberg J (2003) Lack of interaction between extreme high-temperature events at vegetative and reproductive growth stages in wheat. J Agron Crop Sci 189:142–150
Yin X, Guo W, Spiertz JH (2009) A quantitative approach to characterize sink–source relationships during grain filling in contrasting wheat genotypes. Field Crops Res 114:119–126
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Hussain, J., Khaliq, T., Ahmad, A. et al. Wheat Responses to Climate Change and Its Adaptations: A Focus on Arid and Semi-arid Environment. Int J Environ Res 12, 117–126 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-018-0074-2
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41742-018-0074-2