Abstract
Coal is the main energy resource in China. Predicting the dynamic trend of coal demand accurately plays an important role in energy consumption. Four scenarios that include weak industrialization scenario, strong service scenario, weak industrialization scenario, and strong service scenario that are based on the progress of science and technology, have been set to regulate five key factors, consisting of natural population growth rate, GDP growth rate, industrial proportion, tertiary industry proportion, and proportion of investment in science and technology. Based on system dynamics method and Vensim-PLE software, the system dynamics model of coal demand forecasting is built to simulate the total coal demand during 2011–2016 and forecast the total coal demand from 2017 to 2030. The constructed model can better predict the future coal demand through the test. In terms of total amount of coal demand, China’s coal demand has a trend of decreasing, which is lower than the 2016 level setting. The total coal demand of scenario 2 is higher than the rest of the scenarios and the total coal demand of scenario 4 is the smallest. Coal demand slows down under strong service sector, and inversely weak industrialization scenario, which is based on the progress of science and technology, can better control the total coal demand.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful for the support provided by the Technical and System Engineering Institute in Liaoning Technical University. And the authors also thank all friends for their valuable critiques, comments, and assistance on this paper.
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This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. (grant number 71771111).
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This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors. In this study, we did not collect any samples of human and animals. All the data used in this article are from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, which are publicly available as a book.
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Shao, L., Zhao, S. Research on Coal Demand Problem Based on System Dynamics. Process Integr Optim Sustain 2, 383–390 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41660-018-0049-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41660-018-0049-y