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Geospatial Analysis of Invalid Voting in the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria

Abstract

The extant literature on electoral behaviour has been confined to voter turnout and the dynamics of voter choice, with scanty evidence on the predictors of invalid voting in developing countries. To this end, this study examines the patterns and predictors of invalid voting in the 2019 presidential election in Nigeria, which recorded the highest invalid votes in the electoral history of the country. The patterns of invalid voting were determined using the Global and Local Moran’s Indexes while the predictors were identified with the aid of the ordinary least squares regression and the geographically weighted regression techniques. Findings of the study indicate population density, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and access to broadcast media as significant predictors of invalid voting in Nigeria. However, there were spatially varying levels in the effects of these predictors across the country. The study finds evidence that population density, GDP per capita, and access to broadcast media have more influence on invalid voting in northern Nigeria than the southern region. The study recommends an improvement in the socio-economic conditions of the voters to lower invalid voting in Nigeria.

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Correspondence to Richard Adeleke.

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Adeleke, R., Alabede, O. & Amusan, K. Geospatial Analysis of Invalid Voting in the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria. J geovis spat anal 6, 23 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41651-022-00118-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41651-022-00118-w

Keywords

  • Invalid voting
  • Spatial analysis
  • Population density
  • Broadcast media
  • Nigeria