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Assimilating the Subic radar data in the WRF model for tropical cyclone-enhanced heavy monsoon rainfall prediction in Metro Manila

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Abstract

Metro Manila's rapid urbanization in recent decades has made it vulnerable to flooding during its rainy season. Disaster mitigation of such hazards requires the synergistic use of advanced weather observation and forecasting systems. This study explores the impact of radar data assimilation (DA) on the quantitative precipitation forecast skills of the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model during three selected tropical cyclone-enhanced heavy monsoon rainfall events. The radar reflectivity data from the S-band Subic radar station was assimilated into the WRF model to assess the efficacy of using the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) DA system. Results indicate that while the DA of radar reflectivity resulted in changes in the model’s hydrometeor budgeting where the presence of higher reflectivity observations increased the rainwater mixing ratio in the assimilated model, and slight improvements were observed for rainfall < 30 mm (i.e. lower bias, higher accuracy score) on 1 to 2-day lead time forecasts, overall, those changes were not significant enough to statistically improve the WRF model’s rainfall forecast skills compared to the non-DA model runs. In the conduct of this study, we found several limitations in the radar data. Hence, recommendations in the radar data characteristics and best practices for a successful DA implementation are provided, highlighting the challenges of DA forecasting for areas in the Philippines prone to weather-related hazards.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank DOST-ASTHRDP for the Masters in Meteorology scholarship grant for the first author. We also thank Dr. Mayzonee Ligaray, Dr. Olive Cabrera, Dr. Flaviana Hilario, Dr. Prisco Nilo, and the anonymous reviewers for their input in improving this study. Finally, this study is partly supported by DOST-PCIEERD under the project 1211131.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, University of the Philippines Diliman, 1101, Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines

    Cyrill Hope T. Depasucat & Gerry Bagtasa

  2. Department of Science and Technology – Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (DOST-PAGASA), Quezon City, Philippines

    Cyrill Hope T. Depasucat

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  1. Cyrill Hope T. Depasucat
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Correspondence to Gerry Bagtasa.

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Depasucat, C.H.T., Bagtasa, G. Assimilating the Subic radar data in the WRF model for tropical cyclone-enhanced heavy monsoon rainfall prediction in Metro Manila. Spat. Inf. Res. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-024-00590-0

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