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Probit 9 in international trade: another case of institutional path dependence

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Abstract

A large proportion of the literature on the international trade of agricultural products has focused on evaluating the impact of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) restrictions on trade, in particular when these restrictions are issued by states. At the same time, very few studies have analysed the impact of SPS measures promoted by specialist international organisations. One explanation for this different handling would be that, as the result of the scientific work of independent expert committees, international measures are seen as rational, neutral and thus not particularly distortionary. We refer to this as science-based international discipline. In this work, we assume that, while founded on scientific bases, the SPS standards recommended by the international organisations may be relevantly inefficient in regulating trade due to the existence of path dependence phenomena. Drawing on North’s neo-institutional approach, we study a scientific evaluation standard relating to the efficacy of phytosanitary treatments, known as ‘Probit 9’, which is systematically used by the international bodies responsible for regulating trade. The aim is to demonstrate that, while facilitating the emergence of highly robust SPS risk management systems, such a standard has prevented the emergence of other equally effective and potentially less costly risk management methods, leaving us to ponder this situation of ‘lock-in’ so typical of path dependence. We illustrate this issue with the case of ‘certified wooden pallets’ and the associated international certification standard, ISPM 15.

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Notes

  1. 198 SPS notifications submitted during 1995 compared to 1,632 during the course of 2018. Source: WTO-SPSIMS dataset. As with SPS measures, the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) has also increased since the 1990s. In this paper, however, we chose to focus exclusively on SPS aspects linked to the trade of fresh produce.

  2. This is what Arthur (1989) defines as an ergodic system.

  3. For a broader overview of Arthur’s theses in the fields of economics, management, politics and social sciences, see Donnelly’s article (Donnelly, 2009).

  4. Williamson (2014) defines a remediable mode of organization or practice, an existing mode of organization or practice, for which “(1) superior feasible alternative can be described and (2) implemented with expected net gains, and which is (3) presumed to be effective…If such abuse is ignored, an existing mode should not be described as inefficient unless a feasible superior alternative is described for which net gains will be realised after implementation costs are taken into account”.

  5. Even recently, the USDA APHIS amended its Phytosanitary Treatments Manual, and in particular the cold treatment protocol for fruit fly with a view to eliminating options not guaranteeing a level of efficacy equal to Probit 9 (USDA, 2002).

  6. Example of the USA-Japan dispute. Document WT/DS76/R, available here https://www.wto.org/french/tratop_f/dispu_f/76r.pdf

  7. There is a certain amount of criticism levelled at the results of the treatment. As wood is not a homogenous material (differences in density, humidity, presence/absence of fungi, etc.) and is a poor conductor, the heat cannot spread evenly. As the temperature is controlled at only a few points in the heart of the wood, it is impossible to know the temperature at all points of the planks during treatment.

  8. The newspaper articles on this issue speak for themselves: The Times (22/07/2020): ‘Wooden pallet is Brexit stumbling block’; Bloomberg (21/07/2020): ‘The Wrong Kind of Pallets Threatens Border Trouble After Brexit’; Les Echos (30/01/2020): ‘Brexit: l'étonnant casse-tête de la circulation des palettes’.

  9. It should be recalled that alternative models to Probit 9 suggested by these authors include the ‘Maximum Pest Limit Approach’, the ‘System Approach’, the ‘3 Steps Approach’, the ‘Nonhost Status Approach’, the ‘Pest Eradication Approach’ by means of the ‘Sterile-Insect Technique’ (SIT), ‘Male Annihilation’ or ‘Autocidal Biological Control’.

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  1. UMR MOISA, INRAE–CIRAD, Institut Agro, Montpellier Supagro, CIHEAM–IAMM, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France

    Pasquale Lubello

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Lubello, P. Probit 9 in international trade: another case of institutional path dependence. Rev Agric Food Environ Stud 103, 97–116 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41130-022-00169-z

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